Aris Thessalonikis is the clear favourite, with the model picking a home win and a 58% chance of victory, a 24% chance of a draw and an 18% chance of an OFI win. The expected total goals sit at 2.9, but the most likely total is two goals, a 24% probability, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.3% chance. Aris, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, while OFI, on the road, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.1%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.1% with a 6% edge, Under 6.5 at 97.3% with a 1% edge, Over 19.5 fouls at 96.7%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.1% with a 5% edge, and Home +2 handicap at 93.5% with a 2% edge.
Results analysis
Aris Thessalonikis continued their five-game winning streak, beating OFI 2-1 to confirm the model’s home-win pick. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 59% probability and proved correct. The final score matched the most likely 2-0 outcome, and the total of three goals fell within the expected range. Every suggested selection hit: Under 7.5 goals (99.1% probability), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.1% with a 3% edge), Under 6.5 (97.3% with a 1% edge), Over 19.5 fouls (96.8%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.4% with a 4% edge), and Home +2 handicap (93.5% with a 2% edge). The model’s predictions were largely accurate, reinforcing confidence in its forecasting.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis win✓ Hit
59.3%
Avg Implied 56.5% · @ 1.65
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.69
William Hil
1.67
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Dafabet
1.66
Draw✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.81
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
4.00
Pinnacle
3.97
Marathonbet
3.90
Betfair
3.90
Dafabet
3.90
OFI win✗ Miss
17.2%
Avg Implied 19.0% · @ 4.91
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
5.25
Dafabet
5.20
Unibet
5.00
Betano
5.00
Betfair
5.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.00
1.40
0.93
1.13
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (7)
1.43
1.71
1.33
1.33
1.50
2.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.47
0.71
1.88
1.00
1.11
0.44
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (OFI) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
OFI
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.27
1.93
0.79
1.19
1.69
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.91
1.00
1.67
0.88
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.83
0.94
2.10
0.60
1.50
1.38
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.9%
@ 1.25+5.5%
Under 1.5
20.1%
@ 3.64-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.77
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.62
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.9%
@ 1.85+4.8%
Under 2.5
44.1%
@ 1.93-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
SBO
1.87
Superbet
1.87
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
SBO
1.97
Marathonbet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.6%
@ 3.12+3.6%
Under 3.5
66.4%
@ 1.33-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Pinnacle
3.14
Under
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Betfair
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.3%
@ 1.83+3.5%
No
45.7%
@ 1.89-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
Betfair
1.87
Superbet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Betano
1.83
No
BetVictor
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
Betano
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%@ 6.78+4.7%
2-0
10.3%@ 7.30+4.2%
2-1 ✓
9.9%@ 7.54+4.1%
1-0
9.5%@ 6.51+2.7%
3-0
6.7%@ 11.80+2.9%
3-1
6.5%@ 12.10+2.8%
0-0
6.4%@ 10.31+2.1%
1-2
4.9%@ 14.21+1.8%
Aris Thessalonikis goals ↓
OFI goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
4.2%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
1
9.5%
11%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
6.7%
6.5%
3.1%
1.0%
0.2%
4
3.3%
3.2%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aris Thessalonikis goals (down), columns = OFI goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Athens FC
2.29
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.12
PAOK
2.06
Panathinaikos
1.71
Levadiakos
1.61
Aris Thessalonikis
1.44
Atromitos
1.29
Iraklis 1908
1.22
OFI
1.22
Kifisia
1.18
Kalamata
1.03
Volos NFC
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Aris Thessalonikis is 0.23 points better than OFI in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levadiakos
2.00
PAOK
1.88
AEK Athens FC
1.76
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.68
Panathinaikos
1.56
Atromitos
1.39
OFI
1.34
Kifisia
1.18
Iraklis 1908
1.17
Aris Thessalonikis
1.08
Volos NFC
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Kalamata
0.99
Aris Thessalonikis is 0.26 goals worse than OFI in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.34).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.50
AEK Athens FC
0.62
PAOK
0.76
Panathinaikos
1.00
Aris Thessalonikis
1.06
Atromitos
1.18
Asteras Tripolis
1.39
Kifisia
1.42
Panetolikos
1.42
Iraklis 1908
1.48
Levadiakos
1.50
Volos NFC
1.67
OFI
1.72
Kalamata
1.75
Aris Thessalonikis is 0.66 goals better than OFI in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.72).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olympiakos Piraeus
60%
PAOK
60%
AEK Athens FC
57%
Levadiakos
56%
Atromitos
53%
Panathinaikos
53%
Aris Thessalonikis
51%
Kifisia
48%
Volos NFC
46%
Panetolikos
46%
OFI
45%
Asteras Tripolis
45%
Aris Thessalonikis is 5.7 percentage points better than OFI in terms of average possession (51% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis
For 6.1 · Against 3.3 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.3 · Against 12.0 · Total 28.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
OFI
For 3.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.4 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 15.4 · Total 28.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aris Thessalonikis
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.4
9.0
4.5
5.3
3.9
29.3
28.9
29.6
vs Stronger (7)
10.2
9.7
10.7
4.6
5.2
3.7
23.7
24.3
23.0
vs Similar (13)
8.5
9.0
8.2
3.9
3.6
4.1
30.3
28.8
31.3
vs Weaker (30)
9.2
9.4
8.9
4.8
5.9
3.8
30.2
30.2
30.3
% over line
54%
58%
50%
66%
65%
67%
95%
95%
95%
% under line
46%
42%
50%
34%
35%
33%
5%
5%
5%
This opponent (OFI) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
OFI
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.0
9.1
4.2
4.0
4.4
29.2
29.9
28.6
vs Stronger (14)
6.5
5.6
7.4
3.1
3.7
2.8
27.1
27.2
27.0
vs Similar (33)
9.1
8.4
9.7
4.7
4.2
5.2
30.2
30.9
29.4
vs Weaker (3)
11.0
13.0
9.0
3.7
3.5
4.0
26.5
28.0
25.0
% over line
38%
25%
50%
68%
72%
64%
92%
90%
95%
% under line
62%
75%
50%
32%
28%
36%
8%
10%
5%
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kifisia
9.5
Asteras Tripolis
9.3
Aris Thessalonikis
9.3
OFI
8.9
Atromitos
8.9
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.9
PAOK
8.8
AEK Athens FC
8.8
Panetolikos
8.6
Panathinaikos
8.5
Volos NFC
8.5
Levadiakos
8.5
Kalamata
8.3
Iraklis 1908
4.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Kifisia
6.6
Kalamata
6.3
Volos NFC
5.6
Panetolikos
5.5
Levadiakos
5.5
Asteras Tripolis
5.4
OFI
5.4
AEK Athens FC
5.3
Aris Thessalonikis
5.2
Panathinaikos
5.1
Atromitos
4.9
Iraklis 1908
4.7
PAOK
4.6
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Iraklis 1908
38.0
Kalamata
37.5
Kifisia
32.2
Volos NFC
30.5
Levadiakos
30.5
Atromitos
30.4
AEK Athens FC
29.3
OFI
28.6
Aris Thessalonikis
28.4
Panathinaikos
28.3
Asteras Tripolis
27.6
Panetolikos
27.1
Olympiakos Piraeus
25.4
PAOK
24.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
41.8%
@ 2.09-2.2%
Under 9.5
58.2%
@ 1.65+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.09
Unibet
2.04
Under
Superbet
1.71
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
1xBet
1.63
Unibet
1.61
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
82.5%
@ 1.27+8.8%
Under 3.5
17.5%
@ 3.55-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Under
Betano
3.55
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
92.5%
Under 21.5
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aris Thessalonikis or Draw✓ Hit
82.1%
Avg Implied 80.7% · @ 1.16
Edge
+1.4%
59%
24%
17%
covers Aris Thessalonikis + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Aris Thessalonikis or OFI✓ Hit
75.8%
Avg Implied 75.9% · @ 1.23
Edge
-0.1%
59%
24%
17%
covers Aris Thessalonikis + OFI
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Draw or OFI✗ Miss
42.1%
Avg Implied 43.4% · @ 2.15
Edge
-1.3%
59%
24%
17%
covers Draw + OFI
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.22
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.17
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.0%
@ 1.13+3.3%
Under
15.0%
@ 5.08-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.10
1xBet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
56.5%
@ 1.74+2.9%
Under
43.5%
@ 2.01-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.77
BetVictor
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.08
Marathonbet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.01
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
29.5%
@ 3.31+1.5%
Under
70.5%
@ 1.29-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.44
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.35
1xBet
3.35
BetVictor
3.30
Under
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.5%
@ 7.76+0.4%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.06-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
6.90
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.01
OFI over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.3%
@ 1.55+2.3%
Under
37.7%
@ 2.32-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.57
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.46
BetVictor
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Marathonbet
2.35
10Bet
2.35
OFI over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
25.5%
@ 3.71+0.4%
Under
74.5%
@ 1.24-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
1xBet
3.72
Under
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
OFI over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 10.62-1.4%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.04+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
11.20
Marathonbet
11.00
Superbet
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
OFI over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 37.00-98.3%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
33.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aris Thessalonikis, so a minus line means Aris Thessalonikis give that many goals of a start and OFI receive them. At -1, Aris Thessalonikis must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aris Thessalonikis win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (OFI) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
OFI
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.29
0.43
0.69
0.81
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.12
vs Similar (18)
1.17
0.44
1.40
0.40
0.88
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.7%
@ 1.35+0.8%
Under 0.5
30.3%
@ 3.00-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.37
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.16
Marathonbet
3.04
William Hil
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.6%
@ 2.67-1.1%
Under 1.5
66.4%
@ 1.42+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.85
Pinnacle
2.77
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.75
1xBet
2.69
Under
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.5%
@ 6.64-1.4%
Under 2.5
87.5%
@ 1.08+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
1xBet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.60
William Hil
6.50
Under
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
55.7%
@ 1.69+0.6%
Under
44.3%
@ 2.07-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.70
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.15
Superbet
2.10
Unibet
2.08
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.05
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
18.3%
@ 4.39-2.8%
Under
81.7%
@ 1.17+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.70
Betano
4.45
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Superbet
4.15
Under
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 11.00-3.9%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
OFI over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
37.5%
@ 2.69+3.0%
Under
62.5%
@ 1.42-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.86
Betano
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Unibet
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Under
1xBet
1.46
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
OFI over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.9%
@ 9.79-1.6%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.03+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
9.70
10Bet
9.50
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
OFI over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 45.00-98.3%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aris Thessalonikis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.67
0.53
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.50
0.25
0.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.71
1.00
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.25
vs Weaker (17)
0.76
0.47
1.00
0.62
0.56
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (OFI) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
OFI
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.64
0.36
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.91
0.67
1.00
0.38
0.88
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.50
0.70
0.20
0.62
0.88
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.7%
@ 1.21+4.2%
Under 0.5
19.3%
@ 3.95-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Under
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Betano
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
46.9%
@ 2.06+1.6%
Under 1.5
53.1%
@ 1.70-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.15
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.07
1xBet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Under
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
10Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Superbet
1.71
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.9%
@ 4.36-2.4%
Under 2.5
81.1%
@ 1.18+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.60
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.35
Marathonbet
4.30
Superbet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
62.2%
@ 1.49-0.3%
Under
37.8%
@ 2.48+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Superbet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Under
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.48
Superbet
2.47
10Bet
2.45
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.7%
@ 3.24-3.9%
Under
75.3%
@ 1.29+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Under
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 8.20-3.7%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.04+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.70
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
8.30
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
OFI over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.1%
@ 2.21+3.1%
Under
54.9%
@ 1.60-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.25
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.20
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Under
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
Superbet
1.57
OFI over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 7.28-1.7%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.06+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.10
Superbet
7.40
1xBet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
OFI over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 20.25-2.8%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
28.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
92.6%
1.11
Betano
1.11
-
-
-
-
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.4%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.0%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
87.5%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.01
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
85.0%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.6%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.10
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
82.5%
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
-
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
82.1%
1.16
Betano
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
82.1%
1.16
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.7%
1.17
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.1%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.7%
1.21
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.9%
1.25
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.9%
1.23
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.23
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.3%
1.29
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
74.5%
1.24
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
70.5%
1.29
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.1%
1.38
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
+3.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aris Thessalonikis · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Benjamín Garré25%
Loren Morón16%
Martin Hongla15%
Dudu15%
Tino Kadewere12%
Fredrik Jensen11%
Gabriel Misehouy11%
Uroš Račić10%
Fabiano10%
Anastasios Donis8%
Christian Kouamé8%
Pedro Álvaro7%
Monchu6%
Giannis Gianniotas4%
Carles Pérez4%
Noah Fadiga0%
Hamza Mendyl0%
Kostas Galanopoulos0%
Migouel Alfarela0%
Sokratis Dioudis0%
Giorgos Athanasiadis0%
Othmane Boussaid0%
Olimpiu Moruțan0%
Álvaro Tejero0%
Pione Sisto0%
Noah Sonko Sundberg0%
Martin Frýdek0%
Lindsay Rose0%
Michalis Panagidis0%
Mamadou Gning0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Hamza Mendyl55%
Monchu33%
Tino Kadewere31%
Martin Hongla31%
Michalis Panagidis25%
Giorgos Athanasiadis21%
Lindsay Rose21%
Uroš Račić21%
Noah Fadiga17%
Giannis Gianniotas17%
Carles Pérez17%
Álvaro Tejero17%
Mamadou Gning17%
Loren Morón16%
Martin Frýdek16%
Fabiano14%
Noah Sonko Sundberg14%
Kostas Galanopoulos13%
Pedro Álvaro13%
Othmane Boussaid11%
Anastasios Donis8%
Christian Kouamé8%
Benjamín Garré8%
Fredrik Jensen6%
Dudu5%
Migouel Alfarela0%
Sokratis Dioudis0%
Olimpiu Moruțan0%
Pione Sisto0%
Gabriel Misehouy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tino Kadewere19%
Christian Kouamé17%
Giannis Gianniotas13%
Álvaro Tejero10%
Dudu10%
Hamza Mendyl9%
Carles Pérez9%
Uroš Račić7%
Monchu6%
Martin Frýdek5%
Loren Morón4%
Noah Fadiga0%
Kostas Galanopoulos0%
Fabiano0%
Migouel Alfarela0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Anastasios Donis0%
Sokratis Dioudis0%
Giorgos Athanasiadis0%
Othmane Boussaid0%
Pedro Álvaro0%
Olimpiu Moruțan0%
Pione Sisto0%
Noah Sonko Sundberg0%
Martin Hongla0%
Lindsay Rose0%
Benjamín Garré0%
Gabriel Misehouy0%
Michalis Panagidis0%
Mamadou Gning0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tino Kadewere25%
Loren Morón24%
Migouel Alfarela20%
Christian Kouamé17%
Carles Pérez13%
Monchu11%
Dudu5%
Fabiano5%
Uroš Račić3%
Álvaro Tejero3%
Noah Fadiga0%
Hamza Mendyl0%
Kostas Galanopoulos0%
Giannis Gianniotas0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Anastasios Donis0%
Sokratis Dioudis0%
Giorgos Athanasiadis0%
Othmane Boussaid0%
Pedro Álvaro0%
Olimpiu Moruțan0%
Pione Sisto0%
Noah Sonko Sundberg0%
Martin Frýdek0%
Martin Hongla0%
Lindsay Rose0%
Benjamín Garré0%
Gabriel Misehouy0%
Michalis Panagidis0%
Mamadou Gning0%
OFI · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Eddie Salcedo35%
Taxiarchis Fountas28%
Juan Angel Neira25%
Thiago Nuss16%
Athanasios Androutsos10%
Giannis Theodosoulakis10%
Levan Shengelia7%
Aaron Leya Iseka6%
Borja Gonzalez Tejada6%
Konstantinos Kostoulas5%
Zisis Karachalios4%
Vasilis Lampropoulos4%
Giannis Apostolakis4%
Krešimir Krizmanić0%
Ilias Chatzitheodoridis0%
Achilleas Poungouras0%
Nikolaos Marinakis0%
Giannis Christopoulos0%
Franco Zanelatto0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Marko Rakonjac0%
Filip Bainović0%
Nikolaos Christogeorgos0%
Georgios Kanellopoulos0%
Kevin Lewis0%
Nikolaos Athanasiou0%
Klidman Lilo0%
Manolis Faitakis0%
Pavlos Kenourgiakis0%
Thiago Romano0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Thiago Nuss48%
Manolis Faitakis33%
Eddie Salcedo31%
Nikolaos Marinakis27%
Juan Angel Neira25%
Giannis Apostolakis25%
Pavlos Kenourgiakis25%
Achilleas Poungouras23%
Athanasios Androutsos17%
Ilias Chatzitheodoridis17%
Kevin Lewis17%
Nikolaos Athanasiou14%
Giannis Theodosoulakis14%
Levan Shengelia13%
Zisis Karachalios13%
Aaron Leya Iseka12%
Filip Bainović12%
Krešimir Krizmanić10%
Klidman Lilo10%
Konstantinos Kostoulas10%
Georgios Kanellopoulos8%
Vasilis Lampropoulos8%
Taxiarchis Fountas8%
Borja Gonzalez Tejada6%
Nikolaos Christogeorgos5%
Giannis Christopoulos0%
Franco Zanelatto0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Marko Rakonjac0%
Thiago Romano0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nikolaos Athanasiou21%
Thiago Nuss20%
Borja Gonzalez Tejada17%
Georgios Kanellopoulos17%
Juan Angel Neira12%
Levan Shengelia10%
Konstantinos Kostoulas10%
Nikolaos Marinakis9%
Eddie Salcedo8%
Athanasios Androutsos7%
Aaron Leya Iseka6%
Nikolaos Christogeorgos5%
Taxiarchis Fountas4%
Vasilis Lampropoulos0%
Krešimir Krizmanić0%
Ilias Chatzitheodoridis0%
Achilleas Poungouras0%
Giannis Christopoulos0%
Zisis Karachalios0%
Franco Zanelatto0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Marko Rakonjac0%
Filip Bainović0%
Kevin Lewis0%
Giannis Apostolakis0%
Giannis Theodosoulakis0%
Klidman Lilo0%
Manolis Faitakis0%
Pavlos Kenourgiakis0%
Thiago Romano0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thiago Nuss32%
Eddie Salcedo15%
Taxiarchis Fountas12%
Aaron Leya Iseka6%
Konstantinos Kostoulas5%
Vasilis Lampropoulos0%
Athanasios Androutsos0%
Krešimir Krizmanić0%
Levan Shengelia0%
Ilias Chatzitheodoridis0%
Achilleas Poungouras0%
Nikolaos Marinakis0%
Giannis Christopoulos0%
Juan Angel Neira0%
Zisis Karachalios0%
Franco Zanelatto0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Marko Rakonjac0%
Filip Bainović0%
Borja Gonzalez Tejada0%
Nikolaos Christogeorgos0%
Georgios Kanellopoulos0%
Kevin Lewis0%
Nikolaos Athanasiou0%
Giannis Apostolakis0%
Giannis Theodosoulakis0%
Klidman Lilo0%
Manolis Faitakis0%
Pavlos Kenourgiakis0%
Thiago Romano0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (29)
€175m
PAN (34)
€109m
AAF (26)
€85m
PAO (32)
€82m
AT (27)
€41m
OFI (24)
€18m
LEV (24)
€16m
PAN (27)
€13m
AT (31)
€13m
ATR (21)
€12m
KAL (28)
€11m
VN (25)
€10m
KIF (27)
€10m
I1 (25)
€9m
Aris Thessalonikis's squad is €24m more valuable than OFI's (€41m vs €18m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (12)
€84m
PAN (13)
€46m
AAF (11)
€44m
PAO (11)
€30m
AT (13)
€22m
PAN (11)
€7m
OFI (6)
€6m
LEV (11)
€5m
AT (11)
€5m
KIF (10)
€4m
KAL (8)
€4m
VN (8)
€4m
ATR (7)
€3m
I1 (6)
€2m
Aris Thessalonikis's attack is €16m more valuable than OFI's (€22m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€47m
PAO (7)
€28m
PAN (8)
€26m
AAF (5)
€16m
AT (5)
€7m
LEV (4)
€5m
OFI (5)
€3m
I1 (7)
€3m
AT (4)
€2m
ATR (3)
€2m
KAL (6)
€2m
PAN (5)
€2m
KIF (6)
€2m
VN (5)
€2m
Aris Thessalonikis's midfield is €4m more valuable than OFI's (€7m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (11)
€44m
PAN (13)
€38m
AAF (10)
€26m
PAO (14)
€24m
AT (9)
€12m
OFI (13)
€8m
ATR (11)
€6m
AT (16)
€6m
VN (12)
€5m
LEV (9)
€5m
KAL (14)
€5m
KIF (11)
€4m
I1 (12)
€4m
PAN (11)
€3m
Aris Thessalonikis's defence is €4m more valuable than OFI's (€12m vs €8m).
Greece: Super League 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →
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PAOK
Panetolikos
Olympiakos Piraeus
AEK Athens FC
Panathinaikos
Kifisia
Volos NFC
Iraklis 1908
Atromitos
Kalamata
Asteras Tripolis
Levadiakos