Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK Result & Analysis

Aris Thessalonikis’ defensive record at home shows a modest 0.67 goals conceded per game, yet their attack lags with only 1.33 goals scored, especially against stronger opposition. PAOK, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded against weaker teams, suggesting a potent attack that could exploit Aris’ frail defense. The model favours an away win, with a 46% probability, followed by a draw at 32% and a home win at 22%. The expected total of 2.0 goals points to a tight, low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-1 for PAOK, with a 15.4% chance. The suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 99.1%, Over 21.5 fouls at 97.5%, Over 23.5 fouls at 94.1%, Over 25.5 fouls at 88.1%, Under 3.5 at 85.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 84.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 82.4%, and Under 10.5 corners at 76.4%. The match is likely to stay tight, with PAOK’s offensive edge giving them the edge in a low-scoring contest.

The upset came as Aris Thessalonikis snapped a five-game winning streak to secure a 1-0 victory over PAOK, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite of an away win at 46%. The model’s prediction proved wrong. The match produced a total of 1 goal, below the expected 2.0 and the most likely 2-goal outcome, and the actual result was a home win. The model’s selection of “Over 19.5 fouls” hit at 99.1%, as did “Over 21.5 fouls” at 97.5%, “Over 23.5 fouls” at 94.1%, “Over 25.5 fouls” at 88.1%, “Under 3.5” at 85.6%, “Under 11.5 corners” at 84.9%, and “Over 2.5 cards” at 82.4%. The “Under 10.5 corners” pick missed at 76.4%.