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Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK Result & Analysis

Date: 03/12/2025
Time: 19:30
Final 1-1
Aris Thessalonikis
Aris Thessalonikis
Vs
38%
27%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
PAOK
PAOK
Greece: Cup
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The encounter between Aris Thessalonikis and PAOK sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring a home win but recognising the draw as a serious possibility. The predicted probabilities are 38% for Aris, 27% for a draw and 36% for PAOK, making the home side the slight favourite. The average goal expectation is 2.9, with the most likely total of two goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.6% chance. Aris, playing at home against a stronger opponent, has yet to find the net in recent matches but has conceded on average 0.0 goals, while PAOK, on the road to a weaker side, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 99.7%, Over 21.5 fouls at 99.0%, Under 7.5 at 98.9% (hit), Under 11.5 corners at 97.8%, Over 23.5 fouls at 97.4%, Under 6.5 at 97.0% (hit), Under 10.5 corners at 95.4%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 94.1% (hit).

Results analysis

The 1-1 draw stunned everyone, as the pre-match favourite, a home win with a 38% probability, failed to materialise. Aris Thessalonikis, riding a five-game winning streak, could not convert that momentum into a victory, while PAOK, fresh from a win, held them to a stalemate. The model’s selection of Under 7.5 goals proved correct, hitting with a 98.9% probability, and Under 6.5 also hit at 97.0%. The Away under 3.5 goals pick, with a 94.1% chance, was likewise successful. The final score of 1-1 confirmed the draw, contradicting the model’s home-win call.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aris Thessalonikis win✗ Miss
37.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
PAOK win✗ Miss
35.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D03L03L11D11D31W12L00D01L21WH·PAN27/09A·OFI04/10A·OFI04/10H·PAN19/10A·LEV26/10A·EGA29/10A·OLY01/11H·AST09/11A·AEK23/11H·LAR29/11← Super League 1Cup →
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.071.430.711.061.38
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.000.000.501.50
vs Similar (7)1.141.291.671.000.751.50
vs Weaker (20)1.401.001.500.701.301.30
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PAOKPAOK

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W43W30W41W50W40W12L30W11D32WA·AEK19/10A·LIL23/10H·VOL26/10H·LAR29/10A·PAN02/11H·BSC06/11A·PAN09/11H·KIF23/11H·BRA27/11A·LEV30/11← Super League 1Cup →
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.131.930.332.001.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.861.501.710.572.002.43
vs Weaker (16)2.060.812.120.122.001.50
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.2%
Under 1.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.1%
Under 2.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.8%
Under 3.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.3%
No
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.6%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
1-0
6.8%
0-1
6.5%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
6.2%
2-0
5.9%
Aris Thessalonikis goals ↓
PAOK goals →
01234
06.5%6.5%5.5%2.7%1.0%
16.8%13%8.3%4.0%1.4%
25.9%8.5%6.2%3.0%1.1%
32.9%4.2%3.1%1.5%0.5%
41.1%1.6%1.1%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aris Thessalonikis goals (down), columns = PAOK goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Asteras Tripolis
2.29
PAOK
2.25
Iraklis 1908
2.00
Panargiakos
2.00
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.00
OFI
2.00
PAS Giannina
2.00
Makedonikos Neapolis
2.00
Volos NFC
2.00
Panserraikos
2.00
Kavala
2.00
Kampaniakos Chalastra
2.00
Kifisia
2.00
Panathinaikos
1.75
AEK Athens FC
1.67
Kalamata
1.50
Ilioupoli
1.50
Niki Volos
1.50
Panionios
1.43
Egaleo
1.40
Aris Thessalonikis
1.33
Larisa
1.33
Atromitos
1.00
Anagennisi Karditsas
0.94
Marko
0.90
Ellas Syros
0.90
Nestos Chrisoupolis
0.87
Kallithea
0.67
Levadiakos
0.00
Kissamikos
0.00
Panetolikos
0.00
Aris Thessalonikis is 0.92 points worse than PAOK in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 2.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
PAS Giannina
6.00
Kifisia
3.40
Iraklis 1908
3.00
PAOK
2.75
Panargiakos
2.00
Kavala
2.00
Asteras Tripolis
1.86
OFI
1.75
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.71
Volos NFC
1.67
Kampaniakos Chalastra
1.67
Ilioupoli
1.50
Niki Volos
1.50
Atromitos
1.33
Panionios
1.29
Panathinaikos
1.25
Egaleo
1.20
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.09
Marko
1.04
Ellas Syros
1.04
Nestos Chrisoupolis
1.01
Levadiakos
1.00
Kissamikos
1.00
Panetolikos
1.00
Larisa
1.00
Panserraikos
1.00
AEK Athens FC
0.83
Aris Thessalonikis
0.67
Kalamata
0.50
Makedonikos Neapolis
0.50
Kallithea
0.33
Aris Thessalonikis is 2.08 goals worse than PAOK in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 2.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Makedonikos Neapolis
0.00
Larisa
0.33
Kifisia
0.40
Kalamata
0.50
Iraklis 1908
0.50
Ilioupoli
0.50
PAOK
0.50
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.57
Asteras Tripolis
0.57
Kallithea
0.67
PAS Giannina
0.67
Aris Thessalonikis
0.67
Panionios
0.86
OFI
0.88
Panathinaikos
1.00
Volos NFC
1.00
Panserraikos
1.00
Kampaniakos Chalastra
1.00
AEK Athens FC
1.33
Kavala
1.33
Niki Volos
1.50
Panargiakos
1.67
Atromitos
1.67
Levadiakos
2.00
Panetolikos
2.00
Anagennisi Karditsas
2.13
Marko
2.24
Ellas Syros
2.24
Nestos Chrisoupolis
2.30
Egaleo
2.60
Kissamikos
3.00
Aris Thessalonikis is 0.17 goals worse than PAOK in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 0.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis

For 5.2 · Against 3.5 · Total 8.7

🚩 Corners

120711046757522525210142711101212477116H·LARA·AEKH·ASTA·OLYA·LEVH·PANA·OFIA·OFIH·PANA·KIF
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 3.6 · Total 5.5

🟨 Cards

11047233613311244243211594434465H·LARA·AEKH·ASTA·OLYA·LEVH·PANA·OFIA·OFIH·PANA·KIF
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.7 · Against 16.0 · Total 31.7

⚠️ Fouls

420142111131923111219151416191719171112201435244223343036362334H·LARA·AEKH·ASTA·OLYA·LEVH·PANA·OFIA·OFIH·PANA·KIF
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

PAOKPAOK

For 4.7 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.7

🚩 Corners

15052688453742621335137141287661584A·LEVH·BRAH·KIFA·PANH·BSCA·PANH·VOLA·LILA·AEKH·OLY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.4

🟨 Cards

9032118341422611343233397547475A·LEVH·BRAH·KIFA·PANH·BSCH·VOLA·LILA·AEKH·OLYA·CEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 12.9 · Total 25.0

⚠️ Fouls

34014141299171616101071011121571420131428212632201723223427A·LEVH·BRAH·KIFA·PANH·BSCA·PANH·VOLA·LILA·AEKH·OLY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.08.89.34.54.94.027.828.726.9
vs Stronger (8)8.57.59.03.52.74.023.726.022.5
vs Similar (10)8.810.27.23.83.64.028.226.829.8
vs Weaker (32)9.28.610.04.95.74.128.629.527.4
% over line49%50%48%70%64%76%91%95%86%
% under line51%50%52%30%36%24%9%5%14%
This opponent (PAOK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PAOKPAOK

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.09.78.44.85.14.525.624.926.3
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (23)8.28.08.45.35.84.827.326.528.1
vs Weaker (27)9.711.28.44.44.54.424.023.524.6
% over line41%57%26%66%71%62%75%71%78%
% under line59%43%74%34%29%38%25%29%22%
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Egaleo
14.0
Panargiakos
14.0
Panionios
10.4
Kampaniakos Chalastra
10.0
Panathinaikos
9.9
Kifisia
9.8
Kallithea
9.7
PAS Giannina
9.7
Panserraikos
9.4
OFI
9.2
PAOK
9.0
Aris Thessalonikis
9.0
Levadiakos
8.8
Asteras Tripolis
8.7
Panetolikos
8.7
Atromitos
8.6
AEK Athens FC
8.5
Larisa
8.5
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.5
Volos NFC
8.3
Makedonikos Neapolis
8.0
Kissamikos
7.0
Marko
7.0
Kalamata
7.0
Anagennisi Karditsas
6.0
Ellas Syros
5.0
Nestos Chrisoupolis
5.0
Niki Volos
4.0
Iraklis 1908
3.0
Kavala
2.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Anagennisi Karditsas
8.0
Kavala
8.0
Kifisia
7.1
Panserraikos
6.2
Asteras Tripolis
6.2
Larisa
6.1
Volos NFC
6.0
Makedonikos Neapolis
6.0
AEK Athens FC
6.0
Levadiakos
6.0
OFI
5.9
Kallithea
5.9
Panionios
5.8
Atromitos
5.7
Panathinaikos
5.6
Panetolikos
5.5
PAOK
5.4
Aris Thessalonikis
5.3
PAS Giannina
5.1
Kampaniakos Chalastra
5.0
Iraklis 1908
5.0
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.9
Ellas Syros
4.0
Nestos Chrisoupolis
4.0
Kalamata
4.0
Kissamikos
3.0
Egaleo
3.0
Marko
3.0
Panargiakos
3.0
Niki Volos
2.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Egaleo
66.0
Panargiakos
66.0
Kampaniakos Chalastra
39.0
Anagennisi Karditsas
37.0
Kissamikos
37.0
Marko
37.0
Iraklis 1908
37.0
Larisa
35.4
Ellas Syros
34.0
Nestos Chrisoupolis
34.0
Volos NFC
32.0
Kifisia
31.0
Panionios
30.5
Atromitos
30.3
Levadiakos
29.6
PAS Giannina
29.3
Panathinaikos
28.9
Kallithea
28.8
OFI
28.7
Aris Thessalonikis
28.5
AEK Athens FC
28.0
Panserraikos
27.3
Asteras Tripolis
27.1
Niki Volos
27.0
Panetolikos
25.7
PAOK
25.7
Olympiakos Piraeus
25.0
Makedonikos Neapolis
24.0
Kavala
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
9.0%
Under 9.5
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
63.8%
Under 3.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
99.0%
Under 21.5
1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aris Thessalonikis or Draw✓ Hit
64.5%
Avg Implied -
38%
27%
36%
covers Aris Thessalonikis + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis or PAOK✗ Miss
73.1%
Avg Implied -
38%
27%
36%
covers Aris Thessalonikis + PAOK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or PAOK✓ Hit
62.4%
Avg Implied -
38%
27%
36%
covers Draw + PAOK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.4%
Under
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.8%
Under
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.4%
Under
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
42.3%
Under
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.7%
Under
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Aris Thessalonikis, so a minus line means Aris Thessalonikis give that many goals of a start and PAOK receive them. At -1, Aris Thessalonikis must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aris Thessalonikis win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aris Thessalonikis)Actual: PAOK
Aris Thessalonikis -2
7.1%
Draw -2
11.5%
PAOK +2
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Aris Thessalonikis)Actual: PAOK
Aris Thessalonikis -1
18.6%
Draw -1
19.0%
PAOK +1
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Aris Thessalonikis)Actual: Aris Thessalonikis
Aris Thessalonikis +1
64.5%
Draw +1
18.4%
PAOK -1
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Aris Thessalonikis)Actual: Aris Thessalonikis
Aris Thessalonikis +2
82.8%
Draw +2
10.8%
PAOK -2
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W01L01L01L10W10W00D00D00D10WH·PAN27/09A·OFI04/10A·OFI04/10H·PAN19/10A·LEV26/10A·EGA29/10A·OLY01/11H·AST09/11A·AEK23/11H·LAR29/11← Super League 1Cup →
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.300.500.210.380.38
vs Stronger (3)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (7)0.000.710.001.000.000.50
vs Weaker (20)0.650.200.700.000.600.40
Clean sheet %73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PAOKPAOK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W30W00D40W20W00D02L10W00D11DA·AEK19/10A·LIL23/10H·VOL26/10H·LAR29/10A·PAN02/11H·BSC06/11A·PAN09/11H·KIF23/11H·BRA27/11A·LEV30/11← Super League 1Cup →
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.530.730.131.200.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.790.710.570.291.001.14
vs Weaker (16)1.120.380.880.001.380.75
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L02L10W01L21W12L00D01L11DH·PAN27/09A·OFI04/10A·OFI04/10H·PAN19/10A·LEV26/10A·EGA29/10A·OLY01/11H·AST09/11A·AEK23/11H·LAR29/11← Super League 1Cup →
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.770.930.500.691.00
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.000.000.501.50
vs Similar (7)1.140.571.670.000.751.00
vs Weaker (20)0.750.800.800.700.700.90
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PAOKPAOK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W13L30W01L30W40W10W20W11D21WA·AEK19/10A·LIL23/10H·VOL26/10H·LAR29/10A·PAN02/11H·BSC06/11A·PAN09/11H·KIF23/11H·BRA27/11A·LEV30/11← Super League 1Cup →
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.601.200.200.801.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.070.791.140.291.001.29
vs Weaker (16)0.940.441.250.120.620.75
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls99.7%--------
Over 21.5 fouls99.0%--------
Under 7.598.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners97.8%--------
Over 23.5 fouls97.4%--------
Under 6.597.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners95.4%--------
Away under 3.5 goals94.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls94.0%--------
Home under 3.5 goals93.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.592.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 9.5 corners91.0%--------
Under 8.5 corners83.8%--------
Home +2 handicap82.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.582.7%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals82.3%-------✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap81.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards81.3%--------
Home under 2.5 goals81.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.580.2%-------✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals77.4%-------✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals76.4%-------✓ Hit
Home or Away73.1%-------✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards72.3%--------

🎽 13. Player market rates

Aris Thessalonikis
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Benjamín Garré25%
Loren Morón16%
Martin Hongla15%
Dudu15%
Tino Kadewere12%
Fredrik Jensen11%
Gabriel Misehouy11%
Uroš Račić10%
Fabiano10%
Anastasios Donis8%
Christian Kouamé8%
Pedro Álvaro7%
Monchu6%
Giannis Gianniotas4%
Carles Pérez4%
Noah Fadiga0%
Hamza Mendyl0%
Kostas Galanopoulos0%
Migouel Alfarela0%
Sokratis Dioudis0%
Giorgos Athanasiadis0%
Othmane Boussaid0%
Olimpiu Moruțan0%
Álvaro Tejero0%
Pione Sisto0%
Noah Sonko Sundberg0%
Martin Frýdek0%
Lindsay Rose0%
Michalis Panagidis0%
Mamadou Gning0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Hamza Mendyl55%
Monchu33%
Tino Kadewere31%
Martin Hongla31%
Michalis Panagidis25%
Giorgos Athanasiadis21%
Lindsay Rose21%
Uroš Račić21%
Noah Fadiga17%
Giannis Gianniotas17%
Carles Pérez17%
Álvaro Tejero17%
Mamadou Gning17%
Loren Morón16%
Martin Frýdek16%
Fabiano14%
Noah Sonko Sundberg14%
Kostas Galanopoulos13%
Pedro Álvaro13%
Othmane Boussaid11%
Anastasios Donis8%
Christian Kouamé8%
Benjamín Garré8%
Fredrik Jensen6%
Dudu5%
Migouel Alfarela0%
Sokratis Dioudis0%
Olimpiu Moruțan0%
Pione Sisto0%
Gabriel Misehouy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tino Kadewere19%
Christian Kouamé17%
Giannis Gianniotas13%
Álvaro Tejero10%
Dudu10%
Hamza Mendyl9%
Carles Pérez9%
Uroš Račić7%
Monchu6%
Martin Frýdek5%
Loren Morón4%
Noah Fadiga0%
Kostas Galanopoulos0%
Fabiano0%
Migouel Alfarela0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Anastasios Donis0%
Sokratis Dioudis0%
Giorgos Athanasiadis0%
Othmane Boussaid0%
Pedro Álvaro0%
Olimpiu Moruțan0%
Pione Sisto0%
Noah Sonko Sundberg0%
Martin Hongla0%
Lindsay Rose0%
Benjamín Garré0%
Gabriel Misehouy0%
Michalis Panagidis0%
Mamadou Gning0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tino Kadewere25%
Loren Morón24%
Migouel Alfarela20%
Christian Kouamé17%
Carles Pérez13%
Monchu11%
Dudu5%
Fabiano5%
Uroš Račić3%
Álvaro Tejero3%
Noah Fadiga0%
Hamza Mendyl0%
Kostas Galanopoulos0%
Giannis Gianniotas0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Anastasios Donis0%
Sokratis Dioudis0%
Giorgos Athanasiadis0%
Othmane Boussaid0%
Pedro Álvaro0%
Olimpiu Moruțan0%
Pione Sisto0%
Noah Sonko Sundberg0%
Martin Frýdek0%
Martin Hongla0%
Lindsay Rose0%
Benjamín Garré0%
Gabriel Misehouy0%
Michalis Panagidis0%
Mamadou Gning0%
PAOK
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giorgos Giakoumakis33%
Alexander Jeremejeff33%
Anestis Mythou31%
Giannis Konstantelias29%
Dimitrios Pelkas24%
Dimitrios Chatsidis21%
Alessandro Vogliacco17%
Kiril Despodov15%
Andrija Živković15%
Taison14%
Magomed Ozdoev13%
Alessandro Bianco11%
Rahman Baba9%
Soualiho Meïté7%
Fedor Chalov6%
Luka Ivanušec4%
Dejan Lovren0%
Mady Camara0%
Tomasz Kędziora0%
Jorge Sánchez0%
Jonjoe Kenny0%
Jiří Pavlenka0%
Konstantinos Thymianis0%
Greg Taylor0%
Joan Sastre0%
Antonis Tsiftsis0%
Ioannis Michailidis0%
Christos Zafeiris0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Andrija Živković33%
Christos Zafeiris28%
Alessandro Bianco21%
Luka Ivanušec21%
Jorge Sánchez18%
Giorgos Giakoumakis17%
Alessandro Vogliacco17%
Tomasz Kędziora16%
Antonis Tsiftsis14%
Magomed Ozdoev13%
Jonjoe Kenny12%
Dimitrios Pelkas12%
Dejan Lovren11%
Mady Camara10%
Giannis Konstantelias10%
Rahman Baba9%
Taison8%
Kiril Despodov8%
Soualiho Meïté7%
Ioannis Michailidis7%
Alexander Jeremejeff6%
Fedor Chalov0%
Jiří Pavlenka0%
Konstantinos Thymianis0%
Greg Taylor0%
Joan Sastre0%
Anestis Mythou0%
Dimitrios Chatsidis0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrija Živković45%
Taison19%
Dimitrios Chatsidis14%
Luka Ivanušec12%
Dimitrios Pelkas12%
Kiril Despodov12%
Magomed Ozdoev10%
Rahman Baba9%
Anestis Mythou8%
Greg Taylor7%
Giorgos Giakoumakis7%
Giannis Konstantelias6%
Fedor Chalov6%
Jonjoe Kenny6%
Alexander Jeremejeff6%
Ioannis Michailidis3%
Dejan Lovren0%
Mady Camara0%
Tomasz Kędziora0%
Jorge Sánchez0%
Jiří Pavlenka0%
Konstantinos Thymianis0%
Soualiho Meïté0%
Alessandro Vogliacco0%
Joan Sastre0%
Antonis Tsiftsis0%
Christos Zafeiris0%
Alessandro Bianco0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dimitrios Pelkas18%
Giorgos Giakoumakis17%
Alexander Jeremejeff17%
Giannis Konstantelias16%
Andrija Živković15%
Taison8%
Magomed Ozdoev8%
Kiril Despodov8%
Anestis Mythou8%
Dimitrios Chatsidis7%
Mady Camara6%
Luka Ivanušec4%
Jonjoe Kenny3%
Dejan Lovren0%
Fedor Chalov0%
Tomasz Kędziora0%
Jorge Sánchez0%
Rahman Baba0%
Jiří Pavlenka0%
Konstantinos Thymianis0%
Soualiho Meïté0%
Alessandro Vogliacco0%
Greg Taylor0%
Joan Sastre0%
Antonis Tsiftsis0%
Ioannis Michailidis0%
Christos Zafeiris0%
Alessandro Bianco0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (29)
€175m
PAN (34)
€109m
AAF (26)
€85m
PAO (32)
€82m
AT (27)
€41m
OFI (24)
€18m
LEV (24)
€16m
PAN (27)
€13m
AT (31)
€13m
ATR (21)
€12m
KAL (28)
€11m
VN (25)
€10m
KIF (27)
€10m
I1 (25)
€9m
EGA (40)
€6m
PAN (27)
€6m
NV (24)
€6m
KAL (27)
€5m
PAN (24)
€5m
LAR (23)
€5m
MAR (27)
€5m
AK (25)
€4m
ILI (31)
€4m
PG (36)
€4m
NC (23)
€3m
KAV (28)
€3m
ES (20)
€3m
MN (29)
€3m
KC (26)
€2m
PAN (32)
€2m
Aris Thessalonikis's squad is €41m less valuable than PAOK's (€41m vs €82m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (12)
€84m
PAN (13)
€46m
AAF (11)
€44m
PAO (11)
€30m
AT (13)
€22m
PAN (11)
€7m
OFI (6)
€6m
LEV (11)
€5m
AT (11)
€5m
KIF (10)
€4m
KAL (8)
€4m
VN (8)
€4m
ATR (7)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
EGA (19)
€3m
PAN (11)
€2m
I1 (6)
€2m
MAR (11)
€2m
NV (7)
€2m
LAR (7)
€2m
KAL (9)
€2m
PG (12)
€1m
KAV (12)
€1m
AK (7)
€1m
NC (9)
€1m
ILI (10)
€1m
ES (9)
€1m
MN (10)
€1m
PAN (12)
€1m
KC (8)
€1m
Aris Thessalonikis's attack is €8m less valuable than PAOK's (€22m vs €30m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€47m
PAO (7)
€28m
PAN (8)
€26m
AAF (5)
€16m
AT (5)
€7m
LEV (4)
€5m
OFI (5)
€3m
I1 (7)
€3m
AT (4)
€2m
ATR (3)
€2m
KAL (6)
€2m
PAN (5)
€2m
KIF (6)
€2m
VN (5)
€2m
NV (6)
€1m
EGA (6)
€1m
PAN (3)
€1m
ILI (6)
€1m
AK (6)
€1m
KC (7)
€1m
LAR (3)
€1m
PG (7)
€1m
KAL (4)
€1m
NC (5)
€1m
ES (3)
€1m
MN (4)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
PAN (7)
€0m
KAV (4)
€0m
PAN (1)
€0m
Aris Thessalonikis's midfield is €21m less valuable than PAOK's (€7m vs €28m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (11)
€44m
PAN (13)
€38m
AAF (10)
€26m
PAO (14)
€24m
AT (9)
€12m
OFI (13)
€8m
ATR (11)
€6m
AT (16)
€6m
VN (12)
€5m
LEV (9)
€5m
KAL (14)
€5m
KIF (11)
€4m
I1 (12)
€4m
PAN (11)
€3m
KAL (14)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
NV (11)
€3m
EGA (15)
€2m
LAR (13)
€2m
MAR (12)
€2m
PAN (10)
€2m
AK (12)
€2m
ILI (15)
€2m
PG (17)
€2m
NC (9)
€1m
KAV (12)
€1m
MN (15)
€1m
ES (8)
€1m
KC (11)
€1m
PAN (13)
€1m
Aris Thessalonikis's defence is €12m less valuable than PAOK's (€12m vs €24m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
AT wins
2
Draws
3
PAO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK · H/A from AT
DateH/AGameScore
19/01/25HAT Vs PAOK0-0
29/09/24APAOK Vs AT0-1
19/05/24HAT Vs PAOK1-2
10/03/24APAOK Vs AT0-1
07/01/24HAT Vs PAOK2-1
17/09/23APAOK Vs AT0-0
30/04/23APAOK Vs AT3-2
19/03/23HAT Vs PAOK1-2

Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/11/25HAT Vs Larisa2-1
23/11/25AAEK Athens FC Vs AT1-0
09/11/25HAT Vs Asteras Tripolis0-0
01/11/25AOlympiakos Piraeus Vs AT2-1
29/10/25AEgaleo Vs AT1-3
26/10/25ALevadiakos Vs AT1-1
19/10/25HAT Vs Panathinaikos1-1
04/10/25AOFI Crete Vs AT3-0
04/10/25AOFI Vs AT3-0
27/09/25HAT Vs Panserraikos1-1

PAOKPAOK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/11/25ALevadiakos Vs PAO2-3
27/11/25HPAO Vs Brann1-1
23/11/25HPAO Vs Kifisia3-0
09/11/25APanathinaikos Vs PAO2-1
06/11/25HPAO Vs BSC Young Boys4-0
02/11/25APanserraikos Vs PAO0-5
29/10/25HPAO Vs Larisa4-1
26/10/25HPAO Vs Volos NFC3-0
23/10/25ALille Vs PAO3-4
19/10/25AAEK Athens FC Vs PAO0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aris Thessalonikis
Aris Thessalonikis
Greece: Cup
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLW1.58
HomeWDDDW1.96
AwayLDWLL1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%56%32%
AVG goals2.202.042.36
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %34%24%44%
Over 3.5 %12%12%12%
Scored1.161.321.00
Conceded1.040.721.36
BTTS46%36%56%
Clean Sheet36%48%24%
Corners9.058.829.29
Cards5.215.594.81
PAOK
PAOK
Greece: Cup
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW1.76
HomeWWWWD2.29
AwayWWWLW1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%71%38%
AVG goals2.922.463.35
Over 1.5 %74%67%81%
Over 2.5 %62%54%69%
Over 3.5 %30%17%42%
Scored1.862.001.73
Conceded1.060.461.62
BTTS46%33%58%
Clean Sheet46%67%27%
Corners9.009.678.39
Cards5.365.595.13

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC3478
68%
2.3
6021+39
2.4
65%
41%
26%
8.5
29%
5.6
91%
30.5
100%
85
4416261.80.6
57%
2Olympiakos PiraeusOlympiakos Piraeus3472
62%
2.1
5717+40
2.2
74%
38%
12%
8.7
41%
4.5
59%
25.9
74%
175
8447441.70.5
60%
3PAOKPAOK3470
59%
2.1
6426+38
2.6
79%
59%
24%
8.9
35%
4.7
69%
25.0
74%
82
3028241.90.8
60%
4PanathinaikosPanathinaikos3458
47%
1.7
5334+19
2.6
76%
50%
26%
7.6
21%
5.3
74%
30.0
91%
109
4626381.61.0
53%
5LevadiakosLevadiakos3658
47%
1.6
7254+18
3.5
89%
67%
53%
8.6
44%
5.8
86%
30.9
94%
16
5552.01.5
56%
6Aris ThessalonikisAris Thessalonikis3652
36%
1.4
3938+1
2.1
72%
36%
17%
9.2
56%
5.6
81%
29.5
94%
41
227121.11.1
51%
7AtromitosAtromitos3849
34%
1.3
5345+8
2.6
71%
55%
26%
8.7
39%
4.9
76%
30.6
95%
12
3261.41.2
53%
8KifisiaKifisia3845
26%
1.2
4554-9
2.6
76%
55%
29%
9.1
37%
6.5
87%
32.3
95%
10
4241.21.4
48%
9OFIOFI3239
38%
1.2
4355-12
3.1
88%
69%
34%
8.3
34%
5.5
88%
29.9
97%
18
6381.31.7
45%
10
OC
OFI Crete
3239
38%
1.2
4355-12
3.1
88%
69%
34%
8.3
34%
5.4
88%
29.8
97%
0
0001.31.7
-
11Asteras TripolisAsteras Tripolis3839
24%
1.0
3953-14
2.4
71%
50%
24%
9.7
53%
5.6
79%
28.6
87%
13
5261.01.4
45%
12PanetolikosPanetolikos3839
26%
1.0
3954-15
2.4
66%
45%
21%
8.5
42%
5.5
83%
26.9
82%
13
7231.01.4
46%
13Volos NFCVolos NFC3637
28%
1.0
3760-23
2.7
81%
50%
19%
8.8
36%
5.4
89%
30.0
92%
10
4251.01.7
46%
14LarisaLarisa3830
13%
0.8
3561-26
2.5
82%
42%
18%
8.7
42%
6.0
79%
29.7
84%
5
2120.91.6
46%
15PanserraikosPanserraikos3829
18%
0.8
2577-52
2.7
74%
55%
24%
8.6
45%
5.9
85%
27.3
84%
6
2130.72.0
37%
Greece: Super League 1 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →

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