This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.00
1.71
0.57
1.14
1.43
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.29
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (5)
2.20
1.00
3.50
0.00
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
36% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.5%
Under 2.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.2%
Under 3.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.9%
No
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.7%
0-0
6.8%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
6.2%
1-2 â
5.1%
Aris goals ↓
AEK Larnaca goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
4.5%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
1
9.7%
12%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
6.4%
6.2%
3.0%
1.0%
0.2%
4
3.0%
2.9%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aris goals (down), columns = AEK Larnaca goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Aris
2.06
Apoel Nicosia
1.97
AEK Larnaca
1.83
Apollon Limassol
1.77
Pafos
1.75
Anorthosis
1.57
Nea Salamis
1.45
Omonia Nicosia
1.36
AEL
1.26
Karmiotissa
1.20
Doxa
0.97
Enosis
0.93
Akritas
0.85
Olympiakos
0.70
Aris is 0.22 points better than AEK Larnaca in terms of average points per game (2.06 vs 1.83).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Aris
1.81
Pafos
1.67
AEK Larnaca
1.53
Apoel Nicosia
1.44
Apollon Limassol
1.34
Anorthosis
1.30
Nea Salamis
1.27
Omonia Nicosia
1.19
Enosis
1.00
Akritas
0.93
Karmiotissa
0.90
AEL
0.90
Doxa
0.80
Olympiakos
0.75
Aris is 0.28 goals better than AEK Larnaca in terms of goals scored per game (1.81 vs 1.53).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Apoel Nicosia
0.72
Aris
0.78
Pafos
0.83
AEL
1.03
AEK Larnaca
1.03
Apollon Limassol
1.06
Anorthosis
1.07
Omonia Nicosia
1.17
Enosis
1.30
Karmiotissa
1.35
Nea Salamis
1.38
Doxa
1.40
Olympiakos
1.55
Akritas
1.82
Aris is 0.25 goals better than AEK Larnaca in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 1.03).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Omonia Nicosia
56%
AEK Larnaca
55%
Anorthosis
55%
Akritas
55%
Olympiakos
52%
Enosis
52%
Karmiotissa
50%
Apoel Nicosia
49%
Doxa
46%
AEL
45%
Pafos
45%
Aris
44%
Nea Salamis
40%
Aris is 11.9 percentage points worse than AEK Larnaca in terms of average possession (44% vs 55%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Aris
For 7.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 10.0
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.0
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
â ïļ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
AEK Larnaca
For 3.7 · Against 6.9 · Total 10.6
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.6
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 15.8 · Total 29.4
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aris
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (7)
10.0
12.0
8.0
1.4
0.8
2.3
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
10.0
12.0
8.0
3.3
3.0
3.5
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
100%
0%
14%
0%
33%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
0%
100%
86%
100%
67%
-
-
-
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (14)
10.6
12.0
9.5
2.3
1.7
2.9
29.4
32.0
27.7
vs Stronger (7)
10.6
12.0
9.5
4.6
4.0
5.0
29.4
32.0
27.7
vs Similar (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
100%
25%
43%
29%
57%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
43%
0%
75%
57%
71%
43%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
AEK Larnaca
10.6
Apollon Limassol
10.2
Aris
10.0
Apoel Nicosia
9.5
Omonia Nicosia
7.7
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Apollon Limassol
5.0
Aris
5.0
Omonia Nicosia
4.7
AEK Larnaca
4.6
Apoel Nicosia
4.0
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
AEK Larnaca
29.4
Omonia Nicosia
20.7
Apollon Limassol
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.8%
Under 9.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
57.9%
Under 3.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
0.43
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.67
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.79
0.43
1.14
0.43
0.43
0.43
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
1.00
1.00
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (5)
1.20
0.20
2.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.14
0.43
1.75
0.25
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.67
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.25
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
71% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.57
0.57
0.14
0.71
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.57
0.33
0.33
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.80
1.50
0.00
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Aris · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giorgi Kvilitaia60%
Rody Junior Effaghe44%
Grigoris Kastanos29%
Jaden Montnor25%
Edi Semedo20%
Andronikos Kakoullis17%
Leon Balogun14%
Yannick Gomis11%
Connor Goldson10%
Dennis Bakke Gaustad10%
Vana Alves0%
Viktor Kovalenko0%
Aleksandr Kokorin0%
Wesley Foderingham0%
Anderson Correia0%
Charalampos Charalampous0%
Steeve Yago0%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Gedeon Kalulu0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Veljko NikoliÄ0%
Ross McCausland0%
Alex Moucketou-Moussounda0%
David Lelle0%
Mamadou Sane0%
Gustavo Paje0%
Collins Phares Fi Akamba0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alex Moucketou-Moussounda50%
Steeve Yago33%
Gustavo Paje33%
Wesley Foderingham25%
Yacine Bourhane25%
Gedeon Kalulu25%
Mihlali Mayambela25%
David Lelle25%
Collins Phares Fi Akamba25%
Aleksandr Kokorin22%
Connor Goldson20%
Veljko NikoliÄ20%
Charalampos Charalampous17%
Jaden Montnor17%
Grigoris Kastanos14%
Leon Balogun14%
Mamadou Sane12%
Rody Junior Effaghe11%
Andronikos Kakoullis8%
Anderson Correia8%
Vana Alves0%
Viktor Kovalenko0%
Giorgi Kvilitaia0%
Yannick Gomis0%
Edi Semedo0%
Ross McCausland0%
Dennis Bakke Gaustad0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mamadou Sane25%
Rody Junior Effaghe22%
Jaden Montnor17%
Gustavo Paje17%
Anderson Correia15%
Leon Balogun14%
Yannick Gomis11%
Charalampos Charalampous8%
Andronikos Kakoullis8%
Steeve Yago8%
Vana Alves0%
Viktor Kovalenko0%
Grigoris Kastanos0%
Aleksandr Kokorin0%
Wesley Foderingham0%
Connor Goldson0%
Giorgi Kvilitaia0%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Gedeon Kalulu0%
Edi Semedo0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Veljko NikoliÄ0%
Ross McCausland0%
Alex Moucketou-Moussounda0%
Dennis Bakke Gaustad0%
David Lelle0%
Collins Phares Fi Akamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Grigoris Kastanos29%
Jaden Montnor25%
Rody Junior Effaghe22%
Giorgi Kvilitaia20%
Charalampos Charalampous17%
Leon Balogun14%
Mamadou Sane12%
Yannick Gomis11%
Andronikos Kakoullis8%
Vana Alves0%
Viktor Kovalenko0%
Aleksandr Kokorin0%
Wesley Foderingham0%
Connor Goldson0%
Anderson Correia0%
Steeve Yago0%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Gedeon Kalulu0%
Edi Semedo0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Veljko NikoliÄ0%
Ross McCausland0%
Alex Moucketou-Moussounda0%
Dennis Bakke Gaustad0%
David Lelle0%
Gustavo Paje0%
Collins Phares Fi Akamba0%
AEK Larnaca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
ÃdÃĄm GyurcsÃģ33%
Rafael Lopes17%
Ivan TriÄkovski12%
Victor Olatunji12%
Omri Altman11%
Ãngel GarcÃa11%
Oier10%
Mikel GonzÃĄlez0%
Roberto Rosales0%
Marin JakoliÅĄ0%
Kypros Christoforou0%
Nikos Englezou0%
Nenad TomoviÄ0%
Gus Ledes0%
Pere Pons0%
Nemanja Nikolics0%
Kenan PiriÄ0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ0%
Rafail Mamas0%
Ismael Casas0%
Giorgos Naoum0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ãngel GarcÃa44%
Pere Pons33%
Roberto Rosales30%
Imad Faraj20%
Rafail Mamas20%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ18%
Kenan PiriÄ17%
Ivan TriÄkovski12%
Kypros Christoforou12%
Victor Olatunji12%
Omri Altman11%
Oier10%
Nenad TomoviÄ8%
Mikel GonzÃĄlez0%
Marin JakoliÅĄ0%
ÃdÃĄm GyurcsÃģ0%
Nikos Englezou0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Gus Ledes0%
Nemanja Nikolics0%
Ismael Casas0%
Giorgos Naoum0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Imad Faraj20%
Nikos Englezou14%
Roberto Rosales10%
Gus Ledes8%
Kenan PiriÄ8%
Mikel GonzÃĄlez0%
Ivan TriÄkovski0%
Marin JakoliÅĄ0%
ÃdÃĄm GyurcsÃģ0%
Kypros Christoforou0%
Omri Altman0%
Nenad TomoviÄ0%
Ãngel GarcÃa0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Oier0%
Pere Pons0%
Nemanja Nikolics0%
Victor Olatunji0%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ0%
Rafail Mamas0%
Ismael Casas0%
Giorgos Naoum0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
ÃdÃĄm GyurcsÃģ17%
Ivan TriÄkovski12%
Victor Olatunji12%
Omri Altman11%
Gus Ledes8%
Mikel GonzÃĄlez0%
Roberto Rosales0%
Marin JakoliÅĄ0%
Kypros Christoforou0%
Nikos Englezou0%
Nenad TomoviÄ0%
Ãngel GarcÃa0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Oier0%
Pere Pons0%
Nemanja Nikolics0%
Kenan PiriÄ0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ0%
Rafail Mamas0%
Ismael Casas0%
Giorgos Naoum0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
OLY (14)
€4m
KAR (12)
€3m
ENO (9)
€1m
AKR (5)
€1m
DOX (1)
€0m
Aris's squad is €5m less valuable than AEK Larnaca's (€11m vs €16m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
OLY (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
ENO (3)
€0m
AKR (2)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
Aris's attack is €4m less valuable than AEK Larnaca's (€3m vs €7m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
OLY (2)
€0m
ENO (2)
€0m
AKR (0)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
Aris and AEK Larnaca have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
OLY (8)
€2m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
ENO (4)
€1m
AKR (3)
€1m
DOX (1)
€0m
Aris's defence is €1m less valuable than AEK Larnaca's (€5m vs €7m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Apoel Nicosia
Pafos
Anorthosis
Apollon Limassol
Nea Salamis
Omonia Nicosia
AEL
Karmiotissa
Doxa
Enosis
Akritas
Olympiakos