This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.80
1.87
0.73
1.47
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.31
0.88
1.62
1.00
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (14)
2.07
0.71
2.14
0.43
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
62.4%
Under 1.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.1%
Under 2.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.5%
Under 3.5
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.7%
No
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 â
14.8%
1-1
14.1%
0-0
14.0%
2-0
10.3%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
5.1%
3-0
4.3%
Aris goals ↓
AEK Larnaca goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
8.8%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
1
15%
14%
5.1%
1.3%
0.3%
2
10%
8.1%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
3
4.3%
3.4%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.4%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aris goals (down), columns = AEK Larnaca goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Pafos
2.28
Aris
2.08
AEK Larnaca
1.89
Omonia Nicosia
1.89
Anorthosis
1.58
Apoel Nicosia
1.47
Apollon Limassol
1.28
AEL
1.18
Ethnikos Achna
1.18
Enosis
1.06
Omonia Aradippou
1.06
Karmiotissa
1.03
Nea Salamis
0.79
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.42
Aris is 0.19 points better than AEK Larnaca in terms of average points per game (2.08 vs 1.89).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Omonia Nicosia
1.92
Pafos
1.86
Aris
1.83
Apoel Nicosia
1.64
AEK Larnaca
1.61
Anorthosis
1.52
Ethnikos Achna
1.33
AEL
1.15
Apollon Limassol
1.03
Omonia Aradippou
0.97
Enosis
0.94
Nea Salamis
0.94
Karmiotissa
0.91
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.70
Aris is 0.22 goals better than AEK Larnaca in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.61).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pafos
0.58
AEK Larnaca
0.83
Aris
0.86
Apoel Nicosia
1.00
Apollon Limassol
1.08
Omonia Nicosia
1.11
Anorthosis
1.27
Enosis
1.45
AEL
1.61
Ethnikos Achna
1.61
Karmiotissa
1.73
Omonia Aradippou
1.76
Nea Salamis
1.88
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.97
Aris is 0.03 goals worse than AEK Larnaca in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 0.83).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Apoel Nicosia
58%
Ethnikos Achna
58%
Pafos
56%
AEK Larnaca
53%
Apollon Limassol
53%
Anorthosis
50%
Omonia Nicosia
49%
Omonia Aradippou
46%
Nea Salamis
46%
Aris
46%
Omonia 29is Maiou
45%
AEL
44%
Enosis
40%
Karmiotissa
39%
Aris is 7.5 percentage points worse than AEK Larnaca in terms of average possession (46% vs 53%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Aris
For 2.8 · Against 6.7 · Total 9.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.2 · Against 12.7 · Total 27.8
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEK Larnaca
For 5.7 · Against 3.7 · Total 9.3
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.0
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 15.3 · Total 29.3
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aris
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.8
9.8
2.1
1.8
2.4
27.1
25.0
28.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
9.9
10.8
9.3
2.9
2.1
3.6
28.2
23.6
31.6
vs Weaker (24)
8.3
6.2
11.0
1.3
1.5
1.0
25.0
26.8
22.7
% over line
42%
33%
50%
32%
28%
36%
84%
78%
90%
% under line
58%
67%
50%
68%
72%
64%
16%
22%
10%
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.6
8.8
1.3
1.0
1.5
28.1
30.4
26.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
8.6
8.6
8.6
1.7
1.4
2.1
29.5
30.4
28.9
vs Weaker (16)
9.5
-
9.5
0.2
0.0
0.4
20.0
-
20.0
% over line
43%
40%
44%
20%
16%
24%
86%
100%
78%
% under line
57%
60%
56%
80%
84%
76%
14%
0%
22%
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Omonia Nicosia
10.8
Omonia 29is Maiou
10.6
Nea Salamis
10.2
AEL
10.0
Aris
9.6
Apollon Limassol
9.5
Omonia Aradippou
9.5
Karmiotissa
9.4
Apoel Nicosia
9.4
AEK Larnaca
9.4
Anorthosis
9.0
Enosis
8.8
Pafos
8.4
Ethnikos Achna
8.2
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Omonia Aradippou
6.2
Aris
5.4
Omonia 29is Maiou
5.3
Anorthosis
5.3
Pafos
5.2
Apoel Nicosia
5.1
Apollon Limassol
5.1
Enosis
5.1
Ethnikos Achna
5.0
AEK Larnaca
4.9
Nea Salamis
4.7
Karmiotissa
4.7
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
AEL
4.5
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Apoel Nicosia
29.2
Anorthosis
29.0
Enosis
28.6
Karmiotissa
27.0
Ethnikos Achna
26.8
AEL
26.8
Aris
26.1
Pafos
26.1
Omonia Aradippou
26.0
AEK Larnaca
25.6
Apollon Limassol
25.4
Omonia 29is Maiou
25.1
Nea Salamis
25.0
Omonia Nicosia
24.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.1%
Under 9.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
70.3%
Under 3.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
84.0%
Under 21.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.40
0.87
0.33
1.00
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.44
0.50
0.38
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
1.29
0.36
1.29
0.29
1.29
0.43
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.40
1.00
0.47
0.87
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.50
0.88
0.62
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (14)
1.14
0.29
1.14
0.29
1.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.30
1.13
0.13
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.38
0.75
0.00
0.12
0.75
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
0.21
1.57
0.29
1.29
0.14
Clean sheet %
73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.87
0.27
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.38
0.75
0.38
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.43
1.00
0.14
0.86
0.71
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Aris
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Veljko NikoliÄ40%
Yannick Gomis33%
Mihlali Mayambela17%
Karol Struski17%
VanÃĄ0%
Aleksandr Kokorin0%
Connor Goldson0%
Giorgi Kvilitaia0%
Anderson Correia0%
Steeve Yago0%
Edi Semedo0%
Slobodan UroÅĄeviÄ0%
Leo Bengtsson0%
Eric Boakye0%
Zakaria Sawo0%
MiÅosz Matysik0%
Jaden Montnor0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alex Opoku Sarfo67%
Giorgi Kvilitaia50%
Leo Bengtsson50%
Jaden Montnor50%
Aleksandr Kokorin33%
Connor Goldson33%
Anderson Correia25%
Steeve Yago20%
Veljko NikoliÄ20%
VanÃĄ17%
Yannick Gomis17%
Eric Boakye17%
Karol Struski17%
Edi Semedo0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Slobodan UroÅĄeviÄ0%
Zakaria Sawo0%
MiÅosz Matysik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aleksandr Kokorin33%
Anderson Correia25%
Edi Semedo25%
VanÃĄ0%
Connor Goldson0%
Giorgi Kvilitaia0%
Yannick Gomis0%
Steeve Yago0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Slobodan UroÅĄeviÄ0%
Leo Bengtsson0%
Veljko NikoliÄ0%
Eric Boakye0%
Karol Struski0%
Zakaria Sawo0%
MiÅosz Matysik0%
Jaden Montnor0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aleksandr Kokorin33%
Giorgi Kvilitaia25%
Leo Bengtsson17%
VanÃĄ0%
Connor Goldson0%
Anderson Correia0%
Yannick Gomis0%
Steeve Yago0%
Edi Semedo0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Slobodan UroÅĄeviÄ0%
Veljko NikoliÄ0%
Eric Boakye0%
Karol Struski0%
Zakaria Sawo0%
MiÅosz Matysik0%
Jaden Montnor0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
AEK Larnaca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Enzo Cabrera67%
Aitor Cantalapiedra50%
Valentin Roberge0%
Fran Sol0%
Giorgos Athanasiadis0%
Marcus RohdÃĐn0%
Karol Angielski0%
Gus Ledes0%
Pere Pons0%
Jorge MiramÃģn0%
Godswill Ekpolo0%
Yerson ChacÃģn0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ0%
Jeremie Gnali0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Enzo Cabrera33%
Karol Angielski33%
Yerson ChacÃģn33%
Aitor Cantalapiedra25%
Pere Pons25%
Valentin Roberge0%
Fran Sol0%
Giorgos Athanasiadis0%
Marcus RohdÃĐn0%
Gus Ledes0%
Jorge MiramÃģn0%
Godswill Ekpolo0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ0%
Jeremie Gnali0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yerson ChacÃģn33%
Jeremie Gnali33%
Valentin Roberge0%
Fran Sol0%
Enzo Cabrera0%
Giorgos Athanasiadis0%
Marcus RohdÃĐn0%
Aitor Cantalapiedra0%
Karol Angielski0%
Gus Ledes0%
Pere Pons0%
Jorge MiramÃģn0%
Godswill Ekpolo0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Enzo Cabrera33%
Yerson ChacÃģn33%
Valentin Roberge0%
Fran Sol0%
Giorgos Athanasiadis0%
Marcus RohdÃĐn0%
Aitor Cantalapiedra0%
Karol Angielski0%
Gus Ledes0%
Pere Pons0%
Jorge MiramÃģn0%
Godswill Ekpolo0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ0%
Jeremie Gnali0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
OA (18)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
O2M (10)
€3m
ENO (9)
€1m
EA (2)
€0m
Aris's squad is €5m less valuable than AEK Larnaca's (€11m vs €16m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
OA (5)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
ENO (3)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
Aris's attack is €4m less valuable than AEK Larnaca's (€3m vs €7m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
OA (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
O2M (2)
€0m
ENO (2)
€0m
EA (0)
€0m
Aris and AEK Larnaca have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
OA (9)
€2m
O2M (6)
€2m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
ENO (4)
€1m
EA (1)
€0m
Aris's defence is €1m less valuable than AEK Larnaca's (€5m vs €7m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Pafos
Omonia Nicosia
Apoel Nicosia
Anorthosis
Apollon Limassol
Ethnikos Achna
AEL
Enosis
Omonia Aradippou
Karmiotissa
Nea Salamis
Omonia 29is Maiou