PythiaFootballBETA
This match between Aris and AEK Larnaca is finely balanced, with Aris having a slight edge, having recently suffered three straight defeats, including a 3-4 loss to AEK Larnaca in their last encounter. However, AEK Larnaca comes into this game on a two-game winning run. The model predicts a home win for Aris, with a 41% chance of victory, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 29% chance of an AEK Larnaca win.
The expected total number of goals is 2.4, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 14.1%. Aris has averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded at home, while AEK Larnaca has averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded away from home against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Under 3.5 with a 76.9% chance of missing, Over 21.5 fouls with a 74.7% chance, Over 3.5 cards with a 71.5% chance, and Over 1.5 with a 71.5% chance. The home win percentage is 41%, the draw percentage is 30%, and the away win percentage is 29%.
Aris's home win streak came to an abrupt end as AEK Larnaca secured a 3-4 away win. The upset extends their run, following a 3-2 victory over Beitar Jerusalem. The pre-match favourite, home win, did not come through, with the model's call being incorrect. The model's selection, home win, had a 41% probability of occurring. The model's selection was wrong. Under 3.5 goals hit 76.9% of the model's simulations, but ultimately missed. Over 1.5 goals, the model's second selection, hit 71.5% of the time, proving correct.
Aris| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 1.23 | 2.14 | 1.14 | 1.06 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.18 | 1.65 | 1.75 | 1.50 | 0.67 | 1.78 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 2.08 | 0.69 | 2.67 | 0.67 | 1.57 | 0.71 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
AEK Larnaca| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 0.77 | 1.73 | 0.73 | 1.13 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.89 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 2.25 | 0.58 | 2.57 | 0.43 | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
| AEK Larnaca goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.9% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 10% | 14% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 7.8% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
ArisAEK LarnacaAris| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.9 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 26.9 | 24.6 | 29.3 |
| vs Stronger (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (31) | 10.2 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 26.5 | 24.0 | 29.4 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 8.7 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 28.7 | 28.0 | 29.0 |
| % over line | 50% | 57% | 43% | 22% | 21% | 23% | 86% | 71% | 100% |
| % under line | 50% | 43% | 57% | 78% | 79% | 77% | 14% | 29% | 0% |
AEK Larnaca| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.4 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 24.2 | 23.1 | 25.3 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 8.0 | 8.0 | - | 5.5 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | - |
| vs Similar (31) | 9.4 | 8.0 | 10.2 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 24.9 | 24.2 | 25.3 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 9.7 | 9.7 | - | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 21.7 | 21.7 | - |
| % over line | 48% | 40% | 55% | 38% | 32% | 44% | 62% | 60% | 64% |
| % under line | 52% | 60% | 45% | 62% | 68% | 56% | 38% | 40% | 36% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 76.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 74.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 3.5 cards | 71.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 71.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 10/01/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 22/09/25 | A | 3-2 | |
| 27/04/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 29/03/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 09/02/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/11/24 | A | 2-0 | |
| 14/04/24 | H | 0-1 |
Aris| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 06/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 1-2 |
AEK Larnaca| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 06/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 19/03/26 | H | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Omonia Nicosia | 36 | 87 | 75% | 2.4 | 88 | 24 | +64 | 3.1 | 89% | 56% | 33% | 7.9 | 27% | 4.7 | 73% | 25.8 | 82% | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 51% |
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 36 | 69 | 56% | 1.9 | 62 | 33 | +29 | 2.6 | 78% | 42% | 22% | 9.7 | 55% | 5.2 | 73% | 25.4 | 64% | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 49% |
| 3 |  Apollon Limassol | 36 | 67 | 56% | 1.9 | 52 | 41 | +11 | 2.6 | 72% | 47% | 25% | 8.9 | 31% | 5.1 | 69% | 24.7 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 53% |
| 4 |  Pafos | 36 | 62 | 50% | 1.7 | 66 | 38 | +28 | 2.9 | 86% | 50% | 28% | 9.5 | 47% | 4.3 | 59% | 25.0 | 71% | 28 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 5 |  Apoel Nicosia | 36 | 52 | 42% | 1.4 | 53 | 45 | +8 | 2.7 | 83% | 50% | 25% | 10.7 | 68% | 5.0 | 73% | 26.2 | 82% | 15 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 6 | Aris | 36 | 51 | 39% | 1.4 | 61 | 45 | +16 | 2.9 | 83% | 58% | 33% | 10.1 | 45% | 5.2 | 73% | 25.1 | 82% | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 7 |  Anorthosis | 33 | 45 | 33% | 1.4 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 2.3 | 67% | 30% | 21% | 8.7 | 40% | 4.9 | 80% | 30.1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 8 |  AEL | 33 | 44 | 39% | 1.3 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 2.6 | 79% | 55% | 24% | 7.0 | 33% | 4.7 | 67% | 30.6 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 9 |  Omonia Aradippou | 33 | 42 | 36% | 1.3 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 2.2 | 64% | 39% | 18% | 7.3 | 33% | 4.7 | 67% | 30.9 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 43% |
| 10 |  Krasava Ypsonas | 33 | 40 | 33% | 1.2 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 2.4 | 64% | 42% | 21% | 9.9 | 44% | 3.9 | 56% | 24.3 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 11 |  Olympiakos | 33 | 40 | 30% | 1.2 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 2.3 | 70% | 42% | 24% | 6.8 | 12% | 3.8 | 38% | 29.4 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 12 |  Akritas | 33 | 35 | 30% | 1.1 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 2.7 | 82% | 55% | 33% | 9.4 | 50% | 5.2 | 92% | 25.2 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 44% |
| 13 |  Ethnikos Achna | 33 | 33 | 30% | 1.0 | 34 | 53 | -19 | 2.6 | 67% | 55% | 30% | 8.9 | 44% | 4.9 | 89% | 28.8 | 78% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  Enosis | 33 | 5 | 3% | 0.2 | 11 | 80 | -69 | 2.8 | 82% | 55% | 27% | 9.7 | 56% | 4.3 | 44% | 26.3 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 41% |