This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.60
1.60
1.60
0.93
1.60
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
2.22
0.80
2.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (17)
1.65
1.41
2.12
1.62
1.22
1.22
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.9%
Under 1.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.5%
Under 2.5
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.9%
Under 3.5
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
39.2%
No
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.5%
2-0
14.1%
1-1
11.4%
0-0
10.7%
2-1
8.9%
3-0
8.1%
3-1
5.1%
0-1
5.0%
Aris goals ↓
AEL goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
5.0%
1.9%
0.4%
0.1%
1
15%
11%
3.2%
0.7%
0.1%
2
14%
8.9%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
3
8.1%
5.1%
1.6%
0.3%
0.1%
4
3.5%
2.2%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aris goals (down), columns = AEL goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Larnaca
2.03
Apoel Nicosia
2.03
Omonia Nicosia
1.92
Aris
1.81
Pafos
1.72
Apollon Limassol
1.65
Anorthosis
1.47
AEL
1.35
Nea Salamis
1.27
Ethnikos Achna
1.25
Karmiotissa
1.00
Doxa
0.88
Othellos
0.82
AE Zakakiou
0.45
Aris is 0.46 points better than AEL in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Apoel Nicosia
1.75
Aris
1.75
Ethnikos Achna
1.75
Omonia Nicosia
1.72
Pafos
1.67
Apollon Limassol
1.60
AEK Larnaca
1.58
AEL
1.52
Karmiotissa
1.45
Nea Salamis
1.30
Anorthosis
1.28
Othellos
1.20
AE Zakakiou
1.00
Doxa
0.85
Aris is 0.23 goals better than AEL in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.52).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Apoel Nicosia
0.67
AEK Larnaca
0.86
Pafos
0.92
Aris
0.94
Apollon Limassol
0.95
Omonia Nicosia
1.03
Anorthosis
1.17
Nea Salamis
1.52
AEL
1.70
Doxa
1.93
Karmiotissa
1.93
Othellos
1.93
Ethnikos Achna
1.98
AE Zakakiou
2.50
Aris is 0.76 goals better than AEL in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 1.70).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Pafos
56%
Aris
56%
Apollon Limassol
55%
Anorthosis
54%
Karmiotissa
53%
AEK Larnaca
52%
Nea Salamis
52%
Apoel Nicosia
51%
AEL
49%
AE Zakakiou
48%
Othellos
44%
Omonia Nicosia
44%
Ethnikos Achna
42%
Doxa
40%
Aris is 7.1 percentage points better than AEL in terms of average possession (56% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aris
For 4.9 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 8.4 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEL
For 5.3 · Against 6.1 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 12.1 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aris
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.5
10.2
5.4
4.7
6.2
25.2
23.8
26.6
vs Stronger (6)
10.3
9.0
11.7
4.5
4.7
4.3
23.7
24.3
23.0
vs Similar (25)
8.9
8.2
9.6
5.9
5.1
6.7
26.1
24.2
27.9
vs Weaker (19)
9.5
8.7
10.4
5.1
4.3
6.0
24.4
23.1
25.9
% over line
46%
32%
60%
72%
68%
76%
78%
68%
88%
% under line
54%
68%
40%
28%
32%
24%
22%
32%
12%
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.7
9.4
4.4
4.5
4.3
26.6
25.2
28.1
vs Stronger (13)
9.0
8.7
9.3
5.2
5.3
5.0
26.1
27.0
25.0
vs Similar (30)
9.8
10.1
9.4
4.2
4.2
4.2
26.5
23.6
30.5
vs Weaker (7)
9.6
10.0
9.2
4.1
4.7
3.8
27.6
29.3
26.2
% over line
48%
46%
50%
64%
69%
58%
78%
68%
90%
% under line
52%
54%
50%
36%
31%
42%
22%
32%
10%
This opponent (Aris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Othellos
10.1
AE Zakakiou
9.7
AEK Larnaca
9.6
Omonia Nicosia
9.6
AEL
9.6
Apollon Limassol
9.5
Nea Salamis
9.5
Aris
9.3
Apoel Nicosia
9.0
Anorthosis
9.0
Karmiotissa
9.0
Doxa
8.7
Pafos
8.6
Ethnikos Achna
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Apoel Nicosia
5.5
Aris
5.4
Ethnikos Achna
5.4
AE Zakakiou
5.4
Apollon Limassol
5.3
Pafos
5.3
Anorthosis
5.2
Doxa
4.9
Othellos
4.9
Nea Salamis
4.9
Karmiotissa
4.8
AEK Larnaca
4.8
AEL
4.7
Omonia Nicosia
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Apoel Nicosia
29.8
Anorthosis
28.7
Doxa
27.0
AEL
26.9
AE Zakakiou
26.4
Karmiotissa
26.3
Ethnikos Achna
26.0
Apollon Limassol
25.9
AEK Larnaca
25.9
Nea Salamis
25.6
Pafos
25.4
Aris
25.2
Othellos
25.1
Omonia Nicosia
24.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.7%
Under 9.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
75.6%
Under 3.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
79.4%
Under 21.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.71
0.36
0.94
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.40
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
0.21
0.67
0.00
1.25
0.38
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
1.00
0.88
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (17)
1.06
0.82
1.56
1.00
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.73
1.21
0.43
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.40
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (14)
1.64
0.64
1.67
0.33
1.62
0.88
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.93
0.69
0.81
0.36
1.07
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.22
0.80
1.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.76
0.67
0.78
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aris
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Shavy Warren Babicka50%
Aleksandr Kokorin38%
Yannick Gomis25%
Leo Bengtsson25%
Mariusz Stępiński22%
Cajú20%
Jaden Montnor8%
Mihlali Mayambela8%
Alex Yowan Kevin Moucketou-Moussounda8%
Vaná0%
Franz Brorsson0%
Július Szőke0%
Matija Špoljarić0%
Steeve Yago0%
Edi Semedo0%
Slobodan Urošević0%
Veljko Nikolić0%
Eric Boakye0%
Karol Struski0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Artem Shumansky0%
Morgan Brown0%
Mamadou Sané0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Artem Shumansky50%
Franz Brorsson40%
Aleksandr Kokorin38%
Leo Bengtsson33%
Miłosz Matysik33%
Mamadou Sané33%
Eric Boakye25%
Alex Yowan Kevin Moucketou-Moussounda23%
Morgan Brown22%
Cajú20%
Slobodan Urošević20%
Steeve Yago18%
Karol Struski18%
Yannick Gomis17%
Július Szőke15%
Jaden Montnor8%
Mihlali Mayambela8%
Vaná0%
Matija Špoljarić0%
Mariusz Stępiński0%
Edi Semedo0%
Veljko Nikolić0%
Shavy Warren Babicka0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Edi Semedo33%
Jaden Montnor17%
Aleksandr Kokorin12%
Shavy Warren Babicka12%
Mariusz Stępiński11%
Cajú10%
Karol Struski9%
Leo Bengtsson8%
Mihlali Mayambela8%
Vaná0%
Franz Brorsson0%
Július Szőke0%
Matija Špoljarić0%
Yannick Gomis0%
Steeve Yago0%
Slobodan Urošević0%
Veljko Nikolić0%
Eric Boakye0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Alex Yowan Kevin Moucketou-Moussounda0%
Artem Shumansky0%
Morgan Brown0%
Mamadou Sané0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yannick Gomis25%
Leo Bengtsson17%
Aleksandr Kokorin12%
Shavy Warren Babicka12%
Mariusz Stępiński11%
Morgan Brown11%
Jaden Montnor8%
Vaná0%
Franz Brorsson0%
Július Szőke0%
Cajú0%
Matija Špoljarić0%
Steeve Yago0%
Edi Semedo0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Slobodan Urošević0%
Veljko Nikolić0%
Eric Boakye0%
Karol Struski0%
Miłosz Matysik0%
Alex Yowan Kevin Moucketou-Moussounda0%
Artem Shumansky0%
Mamadou Sané0%
AEL
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Georgi Minchev33%
Evdoras Sylvestros33%
Andreas Makris33%
Djalma Silva33%
Ahmad Mendes Moreira25%
George Marsh0%
Javier Mendoza0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Slobodan Medojević0%
Miguel Oliveira0%
Slavoljub Srnić0%
Fabrice Kah0%
Christoforos Frantzis0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vasilios Papafotis33%
Djalma Silva33%
Slobodan Medojević25%
Slavoljub Srnić25%
George Marsh0%
Javier Mendoza0%
Georgi Minchev0%
Evdoras Sylvestros0%
Andreas Makris0%
Ahmad Mendes Moreira0%
Miguel Oliveira0%
Fabrice Kah0%
Christoforos Frantzis0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Javier Mendoza67%
Evdoras Sylvestros33%
Djalma Silva33%
Ahmad Mendes Moreira25%
George Marsh0%
Georgi Minchev0%
Andreas Makris0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Slobodan Medojević0%
Miguel Oliveira0%
Slavoljub Srnić0%
Fabrice Kah0%
Christoforos Frantzis0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ahmad Mendes Moreira50%
Georgi Minchev33%
Djalma Silva33%
George Marsh0%
Javier Mendoza0%
Evdoras Sylvestros0%
Andreas Makris0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Slobodan Medojević0%
Miguel Oliveira0%
Slavoljub Srnić0%
Fabrice Kah0%
Christoforos Frantzis0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
EA (2)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
Aris's squad is €2m more valuable than AEL's (€11m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
KAR (3)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
Aris and AEL have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
EA (0)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
Aris and AEL have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
Aris's defence is €2m more valuable than AEL's (€5m vs €3m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Apoel Nicosia
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Nicosia
Apollon Limassol
Pafos
Anorthosis
Nea Salamis
Ethnikos Achna
Karmiotissa
Doxa
Othellos
AE Zakakiou