This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.90
1.73
1.80
1.13
2.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
2.89
0.60
2.60
0.25
3.25
vs Similar (19)
1.95
1.53
2.30
1.40
1.56
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.3%
Under 2.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.4%
Under 3.5
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.0%
No
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.6%
1-0
13.5%
3-0
9.8%
1-1
9.8%
2-1
9.0%
0-0
8.0%
3-1
6.1%
4-0 â
5.0%
Aris goals ↓
AEL goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
3.5%
1.4%
0.3%
0.0%
1
13%
9.8%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
2
15%
9.0%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
3
9.8%
6.1%
1.9%
0.4%
0.1%
4
5.0%
3.1%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aris goals (down), columns = AEL goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Pafos
2.28
Aris
2.08
AEK Larnaca
1.89
Omonia Nicosia
1.89
Anorthosis
1.58
Apoel Nicosia
1.47
Apollon Limassol
1.28
AEL
1.18
Ethnikos Achna
1.18
Enosis
1.06
Omonia Aradippou
1.06
Karmiotissa
1.03
Nea Salamis
0.79
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.42
Aris is 0.90 points better than AEL in terms of average points per game (2.08 vs 1.18).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Omonia Nicosia
1.92
Pafos
1.86
Aris
1.83
Apoel Nicosia
1.64
AEK Larnaca
1.61
Anorthosis
1.52
Ethnikos Achna
1.33
AEL
1.15
Apollon Limassol
1.03
Omonia Aradippou
0.97
Enosis
0.94
Nea Salamis
0.94
Karmiotissa
0.91
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.70
Aris is 0.68 goals better than AEL in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.15).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pafos
0.58
AEK Larnaca
0.83
Aris
0.86
Apoel Nicosia
1.00
Apollon Limassol
1.08
Omonia Nicosia
1.11
Anorthosis
1.27
Enosis
1.45
AEL
1.61
Ethnikos Achna
1.61
Karmiotissa
1.73
Omonia Aradippou
1.76
Nea Salamis
1.88
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.97
Aris is 0.74 goals better than AEL in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.61).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Apoel Nicosia
58%
Ethnikos Achna
58%
Pafos
56%
AEK Larnaca
53%
Apollon Limassol
53%
Anorthosis
50%
Omonia Nicosia
49%
Omonia Aradippou
46%
Nea Salamis
46%
Aris
46%
Omonia 29is Maiou
45%
AEL
44%
Enosis
40%
Karmiotissa
39%
Aris is 1.0 percentage points better than AEL in terms of average possession (46% vs 44%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Aris
For 2.7 · Against 5.1 · Total 7.9
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 5.3
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 10.9 · Total 26.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEL
For 5.2 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 2.8
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 15.0 · Total 27.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aris
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.5
9.9
3.1
3.0
3.2
25.8
23.6
27.8
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
7.0
10.0
6.0
5.0
7.0
23.5
22.0
25.0
vs Similar (23)
9.1
9.4
8.9
4.1
4.1
4.2
27.4
23.4
30.9
vs Weaker (25)
9.5
7.6
11.4
1.9
1.9
1.9
23.8
24.2
23.4
% over line
44%
31%
57%
46%
46%
46%
81%
69%
93%
% under line
56%
69%
43%
54%
54%
54%
19%
31%
7%
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.3
11.0
1.8
1.5
2.0
25.6
24.4
27.0
vs Stronger (14)
10.1
9.3
10.8
2.0
1.2
3.0
26.0
23.7
27.8
vs Similar (32)
10.8
10.6
11.2
1.8
1.7
1.9
25.3
24.3
26.5
vs Weaker (4)
11.0
11.0
-
0.8
1.5
0.0
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
62%
55%
70%
28%
23%
33%
86%
82%
90%
% under line
38%
45%
30%
72%
77%
67%
14%
18%
10%
This opponent (Aris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Omonia Nicosia
10.8
Nea Salamis
10.2
AEL
9.9
Apollon Limassol
9.6
Aris
9.5
AEK Larnaca
9.4
Omonia 29is Maiou
9.4
Omonia Aradippou
9.4
Karmiotissa
9.4
Apoel Nicosia
9.2
Anorthosis
9.0
Enosis
8.8
Pafos
8.4
Ethnikos Achna
8.2
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Omonia Aradippou
6.0
Omonia 29is Maiou
5.8
Aris
5.4
Anorthosis
5.3
Apoel Nicosia
5.2
Pafos
5.1
Apollon Limassol
5.1
Ethnikos Achna
5.0
Enosis
5.0
AEK Larnaca
4.9
Karmiotissa
4.8
Omonia Nicosia
4.7
Nea Salamis
4.6
AEL
4.5
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Apoel Nicosia
28.8
Enosis
28.8
Anorthosis
28.7
AEL
27.0
Ethnikos Achna
26.8
Karmiotissa
26.6
Omonia Aradippou
26.4
Pafos
25.8
Aris
25.7
AEK Larnaca
25.4
Apollon Limassol
25.2
Nea Salamis
24.9
Omonia 29is Maiou
24.6
Omonia Nicosia
24.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.9%
Under 9.5
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
70.3%
Under 3.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
83.0%
Under 21.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.37
0.71
0.36
0.81
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.43
0.33
0.33
0.38
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
1.12
0.31
1.00
0.38
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
1.00
0.47
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.11
0.40
1.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (19)
1.00
0.53
1.30
0.20
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.40
0.93
0.21
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.29
0.57
0.50
0.17
0.12
0.88
vs Weaker (16)
1.44
0.25
1.25
0.25
1.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.13
0.73
1.33
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
1.78
0.20
1.60
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.95
0.84
1.00
1.20
0.89
0.44
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Aris
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Veljko NikoliÄ40%
Yannick Gomis33%
Mihlali Mayambela17%
Karol Struski17%
VanÃĄ0%
Aleksandr Kokorin0%
Connor Goldson0%
Giorgi Kvilitaia0%
Anderson Correia0%
Steeve Yago0%
Edi Semedo0%
Slobodan UroÅĄeviÄ0%
Leo Bengtsson0%
Eric Boakye0%
Zakaria Sawo0%
MiÅosz Matysik0%
Jaden Montnor0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alex Opoku Sarfo67%
Giorgi Kvilitaia50%
Leo Bengtsson50%
Jaden Montnor50%
Aleksandr Kokorin33%
Connor Goldson33%
Anderson Correia25%
Steeve Yago20%
Veljko NikoliÄ20%
VanÃĄ17%
Yannick Gomis17%
Eric Boakye17%
Karol Struski17%
Edi Semedo0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Slobodan UroÅĄeviÄ0%
Zakaria Sawo0%
MiÅosz Matysik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aleksandr Kokorin33%
Anderson Correia25%
Edi Semedo25%
VanÃĄ0%
Connor Goldson0%
Giorgi Kvilitaia0%
Yannick Gomis0%
Steeve Yago0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Slobodan UroÅĄeviÄ0%
Leo Bengtsson0%
Veljko NikoliÄ0%
Eric Boakye0%
Karol Struski0%
Zakaria Sawo0%
MiÅosz Matysik0%
Jaden Montnor0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aleksandr Kokorin33%
Giorgi Kvilitaia25%
Leo Bengtsson17%
VanÃĄ0%
Connor Goldson0%
Anderson Correia0%
Yannick Gomis0%
Steeve Yago0%
Edi Semedo0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Slobodan UroÅĄeviÄ0%
Veljko NikoliÄ0%
Eric Boakye0%
Karol Struski0%
Zakaria Sawo0%
MiÅosz Matysik0%
Jaden Montnor0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
AEL
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emmanuel Toku33%
Andreas Makris0%
Daniil Lesovoy0%
Victor Braga0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Facundo Constantini33%
Andreas Makris0%
Daniil Lesovoy0%
Victor Braga0%
Emmanuel Toku0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andreas Makris0%
Daniil Lesovoy0%
Victor Braga0%
Emmanuel Toku0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniil Lesovoy33%
Andreas Makris0%
Victor Braga0%
Emmanuel Toku0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
OA (18)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
O2M (10)
€3m
ENO (9)
€1m
EA (2)
€0m
Aris's squad is €2m more valuable than AEL's (€11m vs €9m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
OA (5)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
ENO (3)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
Aris and AEL have a similar attack value (both €3m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
OA (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
O2M (2)
€0m
ENO (2)
€0m
EA (0)
€0m
Aris and AEL have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
OA (9)
€2m
O2M (6)
€2m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
ENO (4)
€1m
EA (1)
€0m
Aris's defence is €2m more valuable than AEL's (€5m vs €3m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Pafos
Omonia Nicosia
AEK Larnaca
Apoel Nicosia
Anorthosis
Apollon Limassol
Ethnikos Achna
Enosis
Omonia Aradippou
Karmiotissa
Nea Salamis
Omonia 29is Maiou