Aris are favoured to win this Cyprus 1. Division clash, with the model picking a home victory and a 53% chance of Aris taking the points. The expected total is 2.9 goals, but the most likely total is 2, with a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.9% chance, reflecting the balanced nature of the contest. Aris, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, average 1.89 goals scored and 1.78 conceded, while Apollon Limassol, on the road, average 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The draw probability sits at 25%, the away win at 22%. Suggested picks from the model include Under 7.5 (99%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6% with a 4% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5% with a 6% edge), Under 6.5 (97.1% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.2% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.3% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (92.8% with a 2% edge) and Under 5.5 (92.5% with a 3% edge). The match is expected to be a modestly high-scoring affair with Aris likely to edge ahead.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Aris at 53%, fell short as the match finished 2-2, a draw that extended both sides’ recent streaks of draws. The model’s call was wrong, but its other selections proved accurate. Under 7.5 goals hit with 99% confidence, as did Under 6.5 with 97.1%. The model also correctly predicted Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.7%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.9%, and Under 5.5 at 92.5%. Each probability was expressed as a percentage and mentioned once.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aris win✗ Miss
53.4%
Avg Implied 38.7% · @ 2.37
Edge
+14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Dafabet
2.43
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.38
Draw✓ Hit
25.1%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.34
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.47
Marathonbet
3.40
Betano
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Apollon Limassol win✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied 33.8% · @ 2.71
Edge
-12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.80
Pinnacle
2.76
Dafabet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.74
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aris
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.37
2.20
1.33
1.13
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.35
1.88
1.89
1.78
0.75
2.00
vs Weaker (13)
2.08
0.69
2.67
0.67
1.57
0.71
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Apollon Limassol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Apollon Limassol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.10
1.75
1.06
1.14
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
1.42
1.19
1.64
1.07
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
4.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.7%
@ 1.22+3.8%
Under 1.5
20.3%
@ 3.83-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Under
Betfair
4.10
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.72
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.6%
@ 1.73+1.8%
Under 2.5
44.4%
@ 2.01-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Bet365
1.75
Betfair
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.74
Under
Pinnacle
2.06
Bet365
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.2%
@ 2.77-0.1%
Under 3.5
66.8%
@ 1.38+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.82
Pinnacle
2.79
Bet365
2.75
Under
Superbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.6%
@ 1.58-1.6%
No
43.4%
@ 2.21+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Superbet
1.58
No
William Hil
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%@ 6.25+4.6%
2-1
9.8%@ 8.56+4.5%
2-0
9.0%@ 11.67+5.1%
1-0
8.9%@ 8.65+3.6%
0-0
6.5%@ 11.23+2.5%
3-1
6.0%@ 16.73+3.3%
1-2
5.9%@ 9.69+1.2%
3-0
5.5%@ 21.89+3.4%
Aris goals ↓
Apollon Limassol goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
4.9%
3.2%
1.2%
0.3%
1
8.9%
12%
5.9%
2.1%
0.6%
2
9.0%
9.8%
5.4%
1.9%
0.5%
3
5.5%
6.0%
3.2%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.5%
2.7%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aris goals (down), columns = Apollon Limassol goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Omonia Nicosia
2.42
AEK Larnaca
1.92
Apollon Limassol
1.86
Pafos
1.72
Apoel Nicosia
1.44
Aris
1.42
Anorthosis
1.36
AEL
1.33
Omonia Aradippou
1.27
Nea Salamis
1.21
Krasava Ypsonas
1.21
Olympiakos
1.21
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.10
Karmiotissa
1.00
Aris is 0.44 points worse than Apollon Limassol in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Omonia Nicosia
2.44
Pafos
1.83
AEK Larnaca
1.72
Aris
1.69
Apoel Nicosia
1.47
Apollon Limassol
1.44
AEL
1.24
Nea Salamis
1.14
Krasava Ypsonas
1.09
Anorthosis
1.06
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.03
Olympiakos
0.97
Omonia Aradippou
0.94
Karmiotissa
0.94
Aris is 0.25 goals better than Apollon Limassol in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Omonia Nicosia
0.67
AEK Larnaca
0.92
Pafos
1.06
Apollon Limassol
1.14
Anorthosis
1.21
Aris
1.25
Apoel Nicosia
1.25
Omonia Aradippou
1.27
Krasava Ypsonas
1.33
Olympiakos
1.33
AEL
1.39
Nea Salamis
1.52
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.68
Karmiotissa
1.85
Aris is 0.11 goals worse than Apollon Limassol in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Pafos
55%
Olympiakos
54%
Apoel Nicosia
54%
Apollon Limassol
53%
Aris
52%
Omonia Nicosia
51%
Anorthosis
50%
AEK Larnaca
49%
AEL
49%
Krasava Ypsonas
47%
Omonia Aradippou
43%
Aris is 1.4 percentage points worse than Apollon Limassol in terms of average possession (52% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aris
For 5.5 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 11.0 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Apollon Limassol
For 5.5 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 11.9 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aris
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.7
10.0
1.5
1.4
1.6
26.9
24.6
29.3
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
10.2
9.7
10.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
26.5
24.0
29.4
vs Weaker (16)
8.7
10.0
8.0
1.1
0.8
1.4
28.7
28.0
29.0
% over line
50%
57%
43%
22%
20%
24%
86%
71%
100%
% under line
50%
43%
57%
78%
80%
76%
14%
29%
0%
This opponent (Apollon Limassol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Apollon Limassol
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
9.4
8.3
1.9
1.5
2.3
24.8
21.9
26.6
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
10.0
10.0
5.5
7.0
4.0
23.5
25.0
22.0
vs Similar (44)
8.9
9.3
8.6
1.7
1.4
2.1
24.6
21.3
26.8
vs Weaker (4)
4.0
-
4.0
1.8
0.0
3.5
30.0
-
30.0
% over line
33%
29%
36%
28%
24%
32%
67%
57%
73%
% under line
67%
71%
64%
72%
76%
68%
33%
43%
27%
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Omonia 29is Maiou
10.6
Nea Salamis
10.2
Omonia Nicosia
10.0
Krasava Ypsonas
9.9
Apoel Nicosia
9.8
Aris
9.7
Pafos
9.6
AEL
9.3
Karmiotissa
9.3
AEK Larnaca
9.2
Apollon Limassol
9.2
Anorthosis
8.7
Olympiakos
8.2
Omonia Aradippou
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aris
5.7
Anorthosis
5.3
Omonia 29is Maiou
5.3
Omonia Aradippou
5.2
Apoel Nicosia
5.1
AEK Larnaca
5.1
Pafos
4.9
Apollon Limassol
4.9
AEL
4.8
Nea Salamis
4.7
Karmiotissa
4.6
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
Olympiakos
4.4
Krasava Ypsonas
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Anorthosis
29.5
Omonia Aradippou
28.9
Olympiakos
27.8
AEL
27.6
Apoel Nicosia
27.2
Karmiotissa
27.0
Aris
26.2
Pafos
26.1
AEK Larnaca
26.0
Omonia 29is Maiou
25.1
Nea Salamis
25.0
Omonia Nicosia
24.9
Krasava Ypsonas
24.3
Apollon Limassol
24.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.3%
@ 1.85-4.7%
Under 9.5
54.7%
@ 1.85+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
70.5%
@ 1.38+5.1%
Under 3.5
29.5%
@ 2.60-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.38
Under
Superbet
2.60
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
76.4%
Under 21.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aris or Draw✓ Hit
78.5%
Avg Implied 66.0% · @ 1.41
Edge
+12.5%
53%
25%
22%
covers Aris + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Unibet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Aris or Apollon Limassol✗ Miss
74.9%
Avg Implied 72.5% · @ 1.28
Edge
+2.3%
53%
25%
22%
covers Aris + Apollon Limassol
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Draw or Apollon Limassol✓ Hit
46.6%
Avg Implied 61.5% · @ 1.51
Edge
-14.9%
53%
25%
22%
covers Draw + Apollon Limassol
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.60
Betfair
1.57
SBO
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aris over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.8%
@ 1.23+8.5%
Under
16.2%
@ 3.76-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Under
1xBet
3.84
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.70
Superbet
3.70
Aris over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
54.3%
@ 2.12+10.2%
Under
45.7%
@ 1.67-10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.11
Under
1xBet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Aris over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
27.4%
@ 4.53+6.9%
Under
72.6%
@ 1.17-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.75
Superbet
4.55
1xBet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Aris over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.2%
@ 9.38+1.2%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.03-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Bet365
9.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Apollon Limassol over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.3%
@ 1.27-7.0%
Under
33.7%
@ 3.48+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Under
BetVictor
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.40
Betano
3.35
Apollon Limassol over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
29.7%
@ 2.29-11.0%
Under
70.3%
@ 1.57+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.31
Marathonbet
2.31
BetVictor
2.30
Pinnacle
2.29
Under
Pinnacle
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Apollon Limassol over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.7%
@ 5.08-8.5%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.13+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.40
1xBet
5.15
Marathonbet
5.15
Betano
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Under
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Apollon Limassol over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 10.58-6.4%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.03+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Bet365
10.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aris, so a minus line means Aris give that many goals of a start and Apollon Limassol receive them. At -1, Aris must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aris win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aris)Actual: Apollon Limassol
Aris -2
14.2%
@ 9.40+4.7%
Draw -2
16.7%
@ 6.95+3.9%
Apollon Limassol +2
69.2%
@ 1.14-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
9.50
Marathonbet
8.70
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.65
Away
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Handicap -1 (Aris)Actual: Apollon Limassol
Aris -1
30.8%
@ 4.57+11.4%
Draw -1
22.5%
@ 4.21+1.4%
Apollon Limassol +1
46.6%
@ 1.50-12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.60
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Away
Betfair
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Superbet
1.50
Bet365
1.44
Handicap +1 (Aris)Actual: Aris
Aris +1
78.5%
@ 1.45+16.9%
Draw +1
13.1%
@ 4.38-7.4%
Apollon Limassol -1
8.4%
@ 4.95-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Superbet
4.40
Betfair
4.20
Away
Marathonbet
5.15
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Bet365
4.75
Handicap +2 (Aris)Actual: Aris
Aris +2
91.6%
@ 1.13+15.0%
Draw +2
6.0%
@ 6.28-7.7%
Apollon Limassol -2
2.5%
@ 8.85-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.55
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.87
0.73
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.47
1.06
0.67
0.89
0.25
1.25
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.31
1.17
0.50
0.71
0.14
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Apollon Limassol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Apollon Limassol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
1.00
0.50
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.58
0.93
0.50
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.7%
@ 1.33-0.1%
Under 0.5
30.3%
@ 3.07+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Under
William Hil
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.05
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
35.8%
@ 2.53-1.0%
Under 1.5
64.2%
@ 1.47+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.54
Marathonbet
2.47
Under
William Hil
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Superbet
1.48
BetVictor
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.2%
@ 5.94-1.5%
Under 2.5
85.8%
@ 1.10+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Betano
5.80
William Hil
5.80
Under
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
52.5%
@ 1.92+4.0%
Under
47.5%
@ 1.80-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.78
Aris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.7%
@ 5.62+1.2%
Under
82.3%
@ 1.11-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.75
1xBet
5.75
Superbet
5.50
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Aris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 14.75-2.6%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Apollon Limassol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.9%
@ 2.04-5.5%
Under
60.1%
@ 1.70+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Under
Pinnacle
1.72
Superbet
1.71
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Betano
1.67
Apollon Limassol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.2%
@ 6.25-5.6%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.09+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.40
Marathonbet
6.40
Betano
6.10
Superbet
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Apollon Limassol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 16.00-4.5%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.33
0.60
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.82
1.22
0.89
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (13)
1.15
0.38
1.50
0.17
0.86
0.57
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Apollon Limassol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Apollon Limassol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.75
0.56
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.62
0.71
0.57
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.1%
@ 1.20-0.8%
Under 0.5
22.9%
@ 4.22+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.17
Under
1xBet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.20
Superbet
4.15
William Hil
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.1%
@ 1.93+1.0%
Under 1.5
50.9%
@ 1.79-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Superbet
1.92
William Hil
1.91
Under
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Superbet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.8%
@ 3.88-3.2%
Under 2.5
79.2%
@ 1.23+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.85
Superbet
3.85
1xBet
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
59.2%
@ 1.67+3.8%
Under
40.8%
@ 2.07-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.73
Superbet
1.67
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Under
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
1.97
Aris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.8%
@ 4.15+2.5%
Under
75.2%
@ 1.19-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Betano
3.95
Under
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Aris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.1%
@ 10.50-2.8%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.03+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Apollon Limassol over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.7%
@ 1.72-9.1%
Under
55.3%
@ 2.00+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.70
Under
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.97
Apollon Limassol over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.1%
@ 4.54-7.3%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.17+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Superbet
4.40
Betano
4.35
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Apollon Limassol over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 11.50-4.9%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.5%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.6%
1.13
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
+15.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.8%
1.09
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.3%
1.13
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
+8.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
88.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.9%
1.17
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
-
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.8%
1.10
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.8%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
1xBet
1.21
+8.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.1%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.3%
1.11
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.7%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.2%
1.23
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
78.5%
1.41
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Unibet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
+12.5%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
78.5%
1.45
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
-
+16.9%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.3%
1.31
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.27
-
-
+6.7%
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.1%
1.20
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.17
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.2%
1.19
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
-
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.9%
1.28
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
+2.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
72.6%
1.17
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
-6.9%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
70.5%
1.38
Superbet
1.38
-
-
-
-
+5.1%
-
Away under 1.5 goals
70.3%
1.57
Pinnacle
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
1xBet
1.57
+11.0%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aris · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giorgi Kvilitaia60%
Rody Junior Effaghe44%
Grigoris Kastanos29%
Jaden Montnor25%
Edi Semedo20%
Andronikos Kakoullis17%
Leon Balogun14%
Yannick Gomis11%
Connor Goldson10%
Dennis Bakke Gaustad10%
Vana Alves0%
Viktor Kovalenko0%
Aleksandr Kokorin0%
Wesley Foderingham0%
Anderson Correia0%
Charalampos Charalampous0%
Steeve Yago0%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Gedeon Kalulu0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Veljko Nikolić0%
Ross McCausland0%
Alex Moucketou-Moussounda0%
David Lelle0%
Mamadou Sane0%
Gustavo Paje0%
Collins Phares Fi Akamba0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alex Moucketou-Moussounda50%
Steeve Yago33%
Gustavo Paje33%
Wesley Foderingham25%
Yacine Bourhane25%
Gedeon Kalulu25%
Mihlali Mayambela25%
David Lelle25%
Collins Phares Fi Akamba25%
Aleksandr Kokorin22%
Connor Goldson20%
Veljko Nikolić20%
Charalampos Charalampous17%
Jaden Montnor17%
Grigoris Kastanos14%
Leon Balogun14%
Mamadou Sane12%
Rody Junior Effaghe11%
Andronikos Kakoullis8%
Anderson Correia8%
Vana Alves0%
Viktor Kovalenko0%
Giorgi Kvilitaia0%
Yannick Gomis0%
Edi Semedo0%
Ross McCausland0%
Dennis Bakke Gaustad0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mamadou Sane25%
Rody Junior Effaghe22%
Jaden Montnor17%
Gustavo Paje17%
Anderson Correia15%
Leon Balogun14%
Yannick Gomis11%
Charalampos Charalampous8%
Andronikos Kakoullis8%
Steeve Yago8%
Vana Alves0%
Viktor Kovalenko0%
Grigoris Kastanos0%
Aleksandr Kokorin0%
Wesley Foderingham0%
Connor Goldson0%
Giorgi Kvilitaia0%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Gedeon Kalulu0%
Edi Semedo0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Veljko Nikolić0%
Ross McCausland0%
Alex Moucketou-Moussounda0%
Dennis Bakke Gaustad0%
David Lelle0%
Collins Phares Fi Akamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Grigoris Kastanos29%
Jaden Montnor25%
Rody Junior Effaghe22%
Giorgi Kvilitaia20%
Charalampos Charalampous17%
Leon Balogun14%
Mamadou Sane12%
Yannick Gomis11%
Andronikos Kakoullis8%
Vana Alves0%
Viktor Kovalenko0%
Aleksandr Kokorin0%
Wesley Foderingham0%
Connor Goldson0%
Anderson Correia0%
Steeve Yago0%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Gedeon Kalulu0%
Edi Semedo0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Veljko Nikolić0%
Ross McCausland0%
Alex Moucketou-Moussounda0%
Dennis Bakke Gaustad0%
David Lelle0%
Gustavo Paje0%
Collins Phares Fi Akamba0%
Apollon Limassol · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pedro Marques33%
Brandon Thomas33%
Josef Kvida18%
Ivan Ljubić17%
Garry Rodrigues17%
Giorgos Malekkidis10%
Gustavo Assunção0%
Jaromír Zmrhal0%
Bruno Gaspar0%
Danilo Špoljarić0%
Praxitelis Vouros0%
Zacharias Adoni0%
Lazar Marković0%
Gaetan Weissbeck0%
Philipp Kühn0%
Thomas Lam0%
Dani Escriche0%
Ali Youssef0%
Sergio Castel Martínez0%
Agapios Vrikkis0%
Morgan Brown0%
Antreas Shikkis0%
Clinton Duodu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gustavo Assunção50%
Ivan Ljubić33%
Brandon Thomas33%
Praxitelis Vouros25%
Antreas Shikkis25%
Josef Kvida18%
Philipp Kühn17%
Thomas Lam17%
Garry Rodrigues17%
Clinton Duodu17%
Zacharias Adoni12%
Lazar Marković12%
Dani Escriche12%
Pedro Marques11%
Gaetan Weissbeck11%
Morgan Brown9%
Jaromír Zmrhal0%
Bruno Gaspar0%
Danilo Špoljarić0%
Giorgos Malekkidis0%
Ali Youssef0%
Sergio Castel Martínez0%
Agapios Vrikkis0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Garry Rodrigues17%
Clinton Duodu17%
Gaetan Weissbeck11%
Jaromír Zmrhal10%
Giorgos Malekkidis10%
Brandon Thomas8%
Gustavo Assunção0%
Bruno Gaspar0%
Pedro Marques0%
Danilo Špoljarić0%
Ivan Ljubić0%
Praxitelis Vouros0%
Zacharias Adoni0%
Lazar Marković0%
Philipp Kühn0%
Thomas Lam0%
Josef Kvida0%
Dani Escriche0%
Ali Youssef0%
Sergio Castel Martínez0%
Agapios Vrikkis0%
Morgan Brown0%
Antreas Shikkis0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Brandon Thomas25%
Sergio Castel Martínez25%
Pedro Marques11%
Agapios Vrikkis8%
Gustavo Assunção0%
Jaromír Zmrhal0%
Bruno Gaspar0%
Danilo Špoljarić0%
Ivan Ljubić0%
Giorgos Malekkidis0%
Praxitelis Vouros0%
Zacharias Adoni0%
Lazar Marković0%
Gaetan Weissbeck0%
Philipp Kühn0%
Thomas Lam0%
Josef Kvida0%
Garry Rodrigues0%
Dani Escriche0%
Ali Youssef0%
Morgan Brown0%
Antreas Shikkis0%
Clinton Duodu0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
OA (18)
€5m
OLY (14)
€4m
KY (20)
€4m
KAR (12)
€3m
O2M (10)
€3m
Aris's squad is €4m less valuable than Apollon Limassol's (€11m vs €15m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
KY (8)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
OA (5)
€1m
OLY (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
Aris's attack is €4m less valuable than Apollon Limassol's (€3m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
OA (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
KY (4)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
OLY (2)
€0m
Aris and Apollon Limassol have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
OA (9)
€2m
OLY (8)
€2m
O2M (6)
€2m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
KY (8)
€1m
Aris's defence is €1m less valuable than Apollon Limassol's (€5m vs €7m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Pafos
Omonia 29is Maiou
AEK Larnaca
AEL
Olympiakos
Nea Salamis
Omonia Aradippou
Omonia Nicosia
Apoel Nicosia
Anorthosis
Karmiotissa
Krasava Ypsonas