Aris faces a tough test at home, but the numbers hint at a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.3 goals and a most likely total of three. The model favours an away win, with a 49% chance, followed by a 27% home win and a 24% draw. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.6% probability. Aris, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, averages 1.9 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while Omonia Nicosia, on the road, averages 1.92 scored and only 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9%, Under 7.5 at 97.9%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.9% with a 5% edge, Under 6.5 at 94.6% with a 3% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.6% with a 3% edge, Over 19.5 fouls at 90.8%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 90.5% with a 1% edge, and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 90.5% with a 2% edge.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aris win
27.1%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.15
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
3.36
1xBet
3.34
William Hil
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Dafabet
3.10
Draw
24.0%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.64
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.91
1xBet
3.78
Dafabet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.75
Betano
3.75
Omonia Nicosia win
48.9%
Avg Implied 45.8% · @ 1.99
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.07
Bet365
2.05
Dafabet
2.04
Pinnacle
2.02
SBO
1.96
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aris
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.43
2.07
1.47
1.13
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.39
1.89
1.90
1.80
0.75
2.00
vs Weaker (12)
1.92
0.75
2.40
0.80
1.57
0.71
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Omonia Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Omonia Nicosia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
0.77
2.07
0.47
2.07
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.95
1.05
2.00
0.70
1.92
1.33
vs Weaker (8)
2.38
0.00
2.20
0.00
2.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.6%
@ 1.18+7.3%
Under 1.5
14.4%
@ 4.25-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Under
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.05
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.8%
@ 1.64+7.6%
Under 2.5
35.2%
@ 2.20-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.65
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.64
Under
Pinnacle
2.22
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
1xBet
2.19
Betano
2.18
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.8%
@ 2.54+6.4%
Under 3.5
57.2%
@ 1.45-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.59
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.52
Marathonbet
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Both teams to score
Yes
65.5%
@ 1.56+6.2%
No
34.5%
@ 2.27-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
1xBet
1.55
No
1xBet
2.30
William Hil
2.30
Marathonbet
2.26
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%@ 6.66+3.8%
1-2
9.3%@ 7.94+3.6%
2-1
6.8%@ 10.52+2.5%
0-2
6.6%@ 10.37+2.3%
2-2
6.5%@ 11.29+2.5%
1-3
6.0%@ 13.78+2.7%
0-1
5.9%@ 8.65+0.7%
0-0
4.5%@ 13.43+1.1%
Aris goals ↓
Omonia Nicosia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
5.9%
6.6%
4.3%
2.1%
1
4.0%
11%
9.3%
6.0%
2.9%
2
3.5%
6.8%
6.5%
4.2%
2.0%
3
1.6%
3.2%
3.1%
2.0%
1.0%
4
0.6%
1.1%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aris goals (down), columns = Omonia Nicosia goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Omonia Nicosia
2.42
AEK Larnaca
1.92
Apollon Limassol
1.86
Pafos
1.72
Apoel Nicosia
1.44
Aris
1.42
Anorthosis
1.36
AEL
1.33
Omonia Aradippou
1.27
Nea Salamis
1.21
Krasava Ypsonas
1.21
Olympiakos
1.21
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.10
Karmiotissa
1.00
Aris is 1.00 points worse than Omonia Nicosia in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 2.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Omonia Nicosia
2.44
Pafos
1.83
AEK Larnaca
1.72
Aris
1.69
Apoel Nicosia
1.47
Apollon Limassol
1.44
AEL
1.24
Nea Salamis
1.14
Krasava Ypsonas
1.09
Anorthosis
1.06
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.03
Olympiakos
0.97
Omonia Aradippou
0.94
Karmiotissa
0.94
Aris is 0.75 goals worse than Omonia Nicosia in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 2.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Omonia Nicosia
0.67
AEK Larnaca
0.92
Pafos
1.06
Apollon Limassol
1.14
Anorthosis
1.21
Aris
1.25
Apoel Nicosia
1.25
Omonia Aradippou
1.27
Krasava Ypsonas
1.33
Olympiakos
1.33
AEL
1.39
Nea Salamis
1.52
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.68
Karmiotissa
1.85
Aris is 0.58 goals worse than Omonia Nicosia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Pafos
55%
Olympiakos
54%
Apoel Nicosia
54%
Apollon Limassol
53%
Aris
52%
Omonia Nicosia
51%
Anorthosis
50%
AEK Larnaca
49%
AEL
49%
Krasava Ypsonas
47%
Omonia Aradippou
43%
Aris is 0.5 percentage points better than Omonia Nicosia in terms of average possession (52% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aris
For 5.5 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 11.0 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Omonia Nicosia
For 3.5 · Against 5.0 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 14.9 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aris
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.7
10.0
1.5
1.4
1.6
26.9
24.6
29.3
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
10.2
9.7
10.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
26.5
24.0
29.4
vs Weaker (16)
8.7
10.0
8.0
1.1
0.8
1.4
28.7
28.0
29.0
% over line
50%
57%
43%
22%
20%
24%
86%
71%
100%
% under line
50%
43%
57%
78%
80%
76%
14%
29%
0%
This opponent (Omonia Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Omonia Nicosia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
9.1
7.5
2.2
2.2
2.3
25.7
23.3
27.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
8.4
9.0
7.9
3.0
2.9
3.2
25.9
23.4
27.8
vs Weaker (16)
7.3
9.5
3.0
0.6
0.8
0.3
24.3
23.0
27.0
% over line
36%
50%
25%
34%
31%
38%
73%
50%
92%
% under line
64%
50%
75%
66%
69%
62%
27%
50%
8%
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Omonia 29is Maiou
10.6
Nea Salamis
10.2
Omonia Nicosia
10.0
Krasava Ypsonas
9.9
Apoel Nicosia
9.8
Aris
9.7
Pafos
9.6
AEL
9.3
Karmiotissa
9.3
AEK Larnaca
9.2
Apollon Limassol
9.2
Anorthosis
8.7
Olympiakos
8.2
Omonia Aradippou
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aris
5.7
Anorthosis
5.3
Omonia 29is Maiou
5.3
Omonia Aradippou
5.2
Apoel Nicosia
5.1
AEK Larnaca
5.1
Pafos
4.9
Apollon Limassol
4.9
AEL
4.8
Nea Salamis
4.7
Karmiotissa
4.6
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
Olympiakos
4.4
Krasava Ypsonas
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Anorthosis
29.5
Omonia Aradippou
28.9
Olympiakos
27.8
AEL
27.6
Apoel Nicosia
27.2
Karmiotissa
27.0
Aris
26.2
Pafos
26.1
AEK Larnaca
26.0
Omonia 29is Maiou
25.1
Nea Salamis
25.0
Omonia Nicosia
24.9
Krasava Ypsonas
24.3
Apollon Limassol
24.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
43.3%
Under 9.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
69.4%
Under 3.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
81.7%
Under 21.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aris or Draw
51.1%
Avg Implied 53.7% · @ 1.74
Edge
-2.6%
27%
24%
49%
covers Aris + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Betano
1.78
William Hil
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Aris or Omonia Nicosia
76.0%
Avg Implied 75.0% · @ 1.24
Edge
+0.9%
27%
24%
49%
covers Aris + Omonia Nicosia
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Draw or Omonia Nicosia
72.9%
Avg Implied 71.3% · @ 1.31
Edge
+1.7%
27%
24%
49%
covers Draw + Omonia Nicosia
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aris over/under 0.5
Over
75.5%
@ 1.30+4.1%
Under
24.5%
@ 3.25-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.20
Betano
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Aris over/under 1.5
Over
41.0%
@ 2.45+2.8%
Under
59.0%
@ 1.51-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.53
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.47
Betano
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.55
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Aris over/under 2.5
Over
16.8%
@ 5.74+0.6%
Under
83.2%
@ 1.11-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.30
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.70
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.07
Aris over/under 3.5
Over
5.4%
@ 9.88-4.0%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.03+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Omonia Nicosia over/under 0.5
Over
85.5%
@ 1.16+5.6%
Under
14.5%
@ 4.64-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.70
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.35
Omonia Nicosia over/under 1.5
Over
57.5%
@ 1.84+7.2%
Under
42.5%
@ 1.86-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
Under
Marathonbet
1.93
Betfair
1.91
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Omonia Nicosia over/under 2.5
Over
30.5%
@ 3.55+4.4%
Under
69.5%
@ 1.26-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.56
Betano
3.55
Betfair
3.50
1xBet
3.40
Under
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Omonia Nicosia over/under 3.5
Over
13.1%
@ 7.38+0.4%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.07-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Betano
7.00
1xBet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aris, so a minus line means Aris give that many goals of a start and Omonia Nicosia receive them. At -1, Aris must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aris win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aris)
Aris -2
4.4%
@ 15.00-1.8%
Draw -2
8.0%
@ 10.00-1.3%
Omonia Nicosia +2
87.6%
@ 1.10+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Away
Bet365
1.10
Handicap -1 (Aris)
Aris -1
12.4%
@ 6.60-1.3%
Draw -1
14.7%
@ 5.12-3.0%
Omonia Nicosia +1
72.9%
@ 1.32+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
7.20
Bet365
6.00
Draw
Marathonbet
5.25
Bet365
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.28
Handicap +1 (Aris)
Aris +1
51.1%
@ 1.75-0.2%
Draw +1
20.5%
@ 3.86-2.7%
Omonia Nicosia -1
28.4%
@ 3.51+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.78
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
Away
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.44
Handicap +2 (Aris)
Aris +2
71.6%
@ 1.24-0.8%
Draw +2
15.1%
@ 5.97+0.1%
Omonia Nicosia -2
13.3%
@ 7.15+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
Away
Marathonbet
7.30
Bet365
7.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.93
0.80
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.50
1.06
0.70
0.90
0.25
1.25
vs Weaker (12)
1.00
0.33
1.40
0.60
0.71
0.14
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Omonia Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Omonia Nicosia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.30
1.13
0.27
1.13
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.14
0.41
1.20
0.40
1.08
0.42
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.7%
@ 1.29+3.5%
Under 0.5
24.3%
@ 3.33-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
Under
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.40
Betfair
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.3%
@ 2.41+1.7%
Under 1.5
59.7%
@ 1.52-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.42
William Hil
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Under
William Hil
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.3%
@ 5.36-1.1%
Under 2.5
83.7%
@ 1.12+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.30
1xBet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aris over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.7%
@ 2.12-3.3%
Under
59.3%
@ 1.66+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Aris over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.4%
@ 7.13-3.6%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.07+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.70
1xBet
7.50
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Aris over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
@ 12.00-6.6%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Omonia Nicosia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
59.3%
@ 1.74+6.0%
Under
40.7%
@ 1.98-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.67
Under
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
Betano
1.93
Omonia Nicosia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
27.9%
@ 4.88+9.0%
Under
72.1%
@ 1.14-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Betano
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Omonia Nicosia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.8%
@ 10.50-1.1%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.03+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.67
1.13
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.83
1.20
0.90
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.42
1.00
0.20
0.86
0.57
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Omonia Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Omonia Nicosia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.47
0.93
0.20
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.64
0.80
0.30
0.83
0.92
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.00
1.20
0.00
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.7%
@ 1.18-0.7%
Under 0.5
21.3%
@ 4.54+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.15
Under
1xBet
4.70
Betano
4.55
Bet365
4.50
William Hil
4.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.8%
@ 1.86+1.8%
Under 1.5
48.2%
@ 1.86-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.88
William Hil
1.85
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.7%
@ 3.61-3.1%
Under 2.5
77.3%
@ 1.26+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.70
Betano
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aris over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.4%
@ 1.81-3.9%
Under
52.6%
@ 1.91+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.86
Aris over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.3%
@ 5.05-4.1%
Under
85.7%
@ 1.14+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.10
Betano
4.50
Under
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Aris over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.0%
@ 10.00-6.4%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.03+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Omonia Nicosia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.1%
@ 1.52+3.1%
Under
35.9%
@ 2.38-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Under
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.37
Omonia Nicosia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.0%
@ 3.45+1.2%
Under
72.0%
@ 1.27-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.55
1xBet
3.40
Betano
3.40
Under
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Omonia Nicosia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.8%
@ 8.70-1.8%
Under
91.2%
@ 1.03+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.60
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
Under 7.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.4%
Under 6.5
94.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+3.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
94.6%
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
+4.0%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
92.2%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.1%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.2%
1.03
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.8%
Over 19.5 fouls
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.6%
1.07
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
-
-
+3.6%
Under 5.5
87.8%
1.06
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-0.9%
Away +2 handicap
87.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
Away under 3.5 goals
86.9%
1.07
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-
-0.4%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.7%
1.14
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
-
-
+4.1%
Over 1.5
85.6%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
-
+7.3%
Away over 0.5 goals
85.5%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
-
+5.6%
Over 2.5 cards
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.7%
1.12
Betano
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.12
+1.1%
Home under 2.5 goals
83.2%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.07
-0.6%
Over 21.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.7%
1.18
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.15
-
-0.7%
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.3%
1.26
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
+3.1%
Home or Away
76.0%
1.24
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
+0.9%
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.7%
1.29
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
+3.5%
Under 4.5
75.6%
1.16
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-4.0%
Home over 0.5 goals
75.5%
1.30
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
+4.1%
Draw or Away
72.9%
1.31
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+1.7%
Away +1 handicap
72.9%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.28
-
-
-
+4.3%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
72.1%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
-
-
-9.0%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
72.0%
1.27
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
-
-
-1.2%
Home +2 handicap
71.6%
1.24
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
-
-
-
-0.8%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aris · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giorgi Kvilitaia60%
Rody Junior Effaghe44%
Grigoris Kastanos29%
Jaden Montnor25%
Edi Semedo20%
Andronikos Kakoullis17%
Leon Balogun14%
Yannick Gomis11%
Connor Goldson10%
Dennis Bakke Gaustad10%
Vana Alves0%
Viktor Kovalenko0%
Aleksandr Kokorin0%
Wesley Foderingham0%
Anderson Correia0%
Charalampos Charalampous0%
Steeve Yago0%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Gedeon Kalulu0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Veljko Nikolić0%
Ross McCausland0%
Alex Moucketou-Moussounda0%
David Lelle0%
Mamadou Sane0%
Gustavo Paje0%
Collins Phares Fi Akamba0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alex Moucketou-Moussounda50%
Steeve Yago33%
Gustavo Paje33%
Wesley Foderingham25%
Yacine Bourhane25%
Gedeon Kalulu25%
Mihlali Mayambela25%
David Lelle25%
Collins Phares Fi Akamba25%
Aleksandr Kokorin22%
Connor Goldson20%
Veljko Nikolić20%
Charalampos Charalampous17%
Jaden Montnor17%
Grigoris Kastanos14%
Leon Balogun14%
Mamadou Sane12%
Rody Junior Effaghe11%
Andronikos Kakoullis8%
Anderson Correia8%
Vana Alves0%
Viktor Kovalenko0%
Giorgi Kvilitaia0%
Yannick Gomis0%
Edi Semedo0%
Ross McCausland0%
Dennis Bakke Gaustad0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mamadou Sane25%
Rody Junior Effaghe22%
Jaden Montnor17%
Gustavo Paje17%
Anderson Correia15%
Leon Balogun14%
Yannick Gomis11%
Charalampos Charalampous8%
Andronikos Kakoullis8%
Steeve Yago8%
Vana Alves0%
Viktor Kovalenko0%
Grigoris Kastanos0%
Aleksandr Kokorin0%
Wesley Foderingham0%
Connor Goldson0%
Giorgi Kvilitaia0%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Gedeon Kalulu0%
Edi Semedo0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Veljko Nikolić0%
Ross McCausland0%
Alex Moucketou-Moussounda0%
Dennis Bakke Gaustad0%
David Lelle0%
Collins Phares Fi Akamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Grigoris Kastanos29%
Jaden Montnor25%
Rody Junior Effaghe22%
Giorgi Kvilitaia20%
Charalampos Charalampous17%
Leon Balogun14%
Mamadou Sane12%
Yannick Gomis11%
Andronikos Kakoullis8%
Vana Alves0%
Viktor Kovalenko0%
Aleksandr Kokorin0%
Wesley Foderingham0%
Connor Goldson0%
Anderson Correia0%
Steeve Yago0%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Gedeon Kalulu0%
Edi Semedo0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Veljko Nikolić0%
Ross McCausland0%
Alex Moucketou-Moussounda0%
Dennis Bakke Gaustad0%
David Lelle0%
Gustavo Paje0%
Collins Phares Fi Akamba0%
Omonia Nicosia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Willy Semedo33%
Ryan Mmaee27%
Angelos Neophytou27%
Ewandro Costa25%
Muamer Tanković17%
Evangelos Andreou10%
Panagiotis Andreou9%
Senou Coulibaly8%
Ioannis Kousoulos7%
Giannis Masouras7%
Novica Eraković7%
Alpha Diounkou6%
Tasos Chatzigiovanis6%
Stevan Jovetić0%
Fabiano0%
Carel Eiting0%
Charalampos Kyriakidis0%
Francis Uzoho0%
Nikolas Panagiotou0%
Moses Odubajo0%
Jure Balkovec0%
Stefan Simic0%
Amine Khammas0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Mateo Marić0%
Saad Agouzoul0%
Fotios Kitsos0%
Andreas Christou0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Charalampos Kyriakidis67%
Stefan Simic44%
Ewandro Costa38%
Mateo Marić35%
Amine Khammas33%
Senou Coulibaly31%
Francis Uzoho29%
Moses Odubajo29%
Saad Agouzoul29%
Giannis Masouras21%
Panagiotis Andreou18%
Nikolas Panagiotou17%
Tasos Chatzigiovanis17%
Ioannis Kousoulos14%
Fotios Kitsos12%
Andreas Christou12%
Alpha Diounkou12%
Willy Semedo11%
Jure Balkovec10%
Evangelos Andreou10%
Fabiano9%
Muamer Tanković8%
Ryan Mmaee7%
Angelos Neophytou7%
Stevan Jovetić0%
Carel Eiting0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Novica Eraković0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ryan Mmaee33%
Ewandro Costa19%
Tasos Chatzigiovanis17%
Muamer Tanković17%
Willy Semedo17%
Carel Eiting7%
Alpha Diounkou6%
Stevan Jovetić0%
Fabiano0%
Charalampos Kyriakidis0%
Ioannis Kousoulos0%
Francis Uzoho0%
Nikolas Panagiotou0%
Moses Odubajo0%
Senou Coulibaly0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Jure Balkovec0%
Stefan Simic0%
Amine Khammas0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Novica Eraković0%
Mateo Marić0%
Saad Agouzoul0%
Fotios Kitsos0%
Evangelos Andreou0%
Angelos Neophytou0%
Andreas Christou0%
Panagiotis Andreou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Willy Semedo44%
Stevan Jovetić38%
Ryan Mmaee20%
Ewandro Costa19%
Muamer Tanković17%
Ioannis Kousoulos7%
Angelos Neophytou7%
Tasos Chatzigiovanis6%
Fabiano0%
Carel Eiting0%
Charalampos Kyriakidis0%
Francis Uzoho0%
Nikolas Panagiotou0%
Moses Odubajo0%
Senou Coulibaly0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Jure Balkovec0%
Stefan Simic0%
Amine Khammas0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Novica Eraković0%
Mateo Marić0%
Saad Agouzoul0%
Alpha Diounkou0%
Fotios Kitsos0%
Evangelos Andreou0%
Andreas Christou0%
Panagiotis Andreou0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
OA (18)
€5m
OLY (14)
€4m
KY (20)
€4m
KAR (12)
€3m
O2M (10)
€3m
Aris's squad is €4m less valuable than Omonia Nicosia's (€11m vs €15m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
KY (8)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
OA (5)
€1m
OLY (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
Aris's attack is €4m less valuable than Omonia Nicosia's (€3m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
OA (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
KY (4)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
OLY (2)
€0m
Aris and Omonia Nicosia have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
OA (9)
€2m
OLY (8)
€2m
O2M (6)
€2m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
KY (8)
€1m
Aris and Omonia Nicosia have a similar defence value (both €5m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Pafos
Omonia 29is Maiou
AEK Larnaca
AEL
Olympiakos
Nea Salamis
Apollon Limassol
Omonia Aradippou
Apoel Nicosia
Anorthosis
Karmiotissa
Krasava Ypsonas