Arka Gdynia are the clear favourites, with the model rating a 76 % chance of a home win, 15 % for a draw and 9 % for Polonia Bytom to triumph. The prediction favours a 2-0 victory for the hosts, the most likely scoreline at 9.3 %. The expected total goals hover at 3.8, with the most probable total of 3 goals at 21 %. Arka’s home form shows an average of 1.73 goals scored and 1.00 conceded against similar opposition, while Polonia’s away record yields 2.14 goals scored and 2.29 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.7 % (edge 8 %), Away under 3.5 goals at 98.5 % (edge 7 %), Home +2 handicap at 97.0 %, Under 7.5 at 96.2 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 94.6 % (edge 7 %), Home over 0.5 goals at 94.1 % (edge 14 %) and Away under 2.5 goals at 93.1 % (edge 7 %). The model’s selection highlights Arka’s home advantage and Polonia’s recent defensive frailties.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Arka Gdynia, failed to deliver a win, ending the game in a 1-1 draw. The model had picked a home win with a 76% probability, but the outcome was a draw, so the call was wrong. The match produced the most likely 3-goal total, yet the score settled at 1-1. Every suggested pick was a hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.5%, Home +2 handicap at 97.0%, Under 7.5 at 96.2%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 94.2%, Home over 0.5 goals at 94.1%, and Away under 2.5 goals at 93.1%. Both teams entered the match on a draw, with Arka Gdynia’s recent form showing a win-draw-loss-win-draw streak and Polonia Bytom a draw-draw-loss-draw-loss streak.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arka Gdynia win✗ Miss
75.9%
Avg Implied 51.3% · @ 1.77
Edge
+24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Unibet
1.83
SBO
1.81
Betano
1.80
Draw✓ Hit
15.1%
Avg Implied 25.3% · @ 3.60
Edge
-10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.90
Betfair
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Dafabet
3.65
Polonia Bytom win✗ Miss
9.0%
Avg Implied 23.3% · @ 3.90
Edge
-14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.18
Betano
4.05
1xBet
4.04
Betfair
4.00
Dafabet
4.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Arka Gdynia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.77
1.75
1.31
0.71
2.29
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
2.57
1.50
2.50
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (21)
1.43
1.57
1.83
0.92
0.89
2.44
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
-
-
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Bytom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.83
1.75
1.44
2.14
2.29
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
4.00
vs Similar (24)
1.71
1.83
1.67
1.33
1.75
2.33
vs Weaker (4)
3.50
1.50
2.33
2.00
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.6%
@ 1.19+11.5%
Under 1.5
10.4%
@ 4.22-11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Under
Pinnacle
4.63
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
72.5%
@ 1.64+15.8%
Under 2.5
27.5%
@ 2.14-15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
10Bet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Under
Pinnacle
2.24
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.15
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
51.9%
@ 2.56+15.8%
Under 3.5
48.1%
@ 1.45-15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.61
10Bet
2.60
BetVictor
2.60
Under
Pinnacle
1.49
Betfair
1.47
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.8%
@ 1.59-0.3%
No
42.2%
@ 2.20+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
BetVictor
1.60
Betano
1.60
William Hil
1.60
Superbet
1.59
No
Betfair
2.30
Betano
2.22
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.21
BetVictor
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.3%@ 8.99+4.4%
3-0
8.8%@ 14.41+5.7%
2-1
8.7%@ 7.38+2.7%
3-1
8.2%@ 11.70+4.4%
1-1 ✓
6.8%@ 6.58+0.0%
4-0
6.2%@ 28.66+4.7%
1-0
6.0%@ 7.98+0.4%
4-1
5.8%@ 24.29+4.0%
Arka Gdynia goals ↓
Polonia Bytom goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.9%
1.6%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
1
6.0%
6.8%
2.9%
0.9%
0.2%
2
9.3%
8.7%
4.1%
1.3%
0.3%
3
8.8%
8.2%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
4
6.2%
5.8%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arka Gdynia goals (down), columns = Polonia Bytom goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Arka Gdynia is 0.67 points better than Polonia Bytom in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Arka Gdynia is 0.50 goals worse than Polonia Bytom in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Arka Gdynia is 1.67 goals better than Polonia Bytom in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 2.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Arka Gdynia or Draw✓ Hit
91.0%
Avg Implied 77.0% · @ 1.19
Edge
+14.0%
76%
15%
9%
covers Arka Gdynia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Arka Gdynia or Polonia Bytom✗ Miss
84.9%
Avg Implied 74.9% · @ 1.23
Edge
+9.9%
76%
15%
9%
covers Arka Gdynia + Polonia Bytom
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
Draw or Polonia Bytom✓ Hit
24.1%
Avg Implied 48.1% · @ 1.91
Edge
-23.9%
76%
15%
9%
covers Draw + Polonia Bytom
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.01
Betano
2.00
10Bet
1.95
BetVictor
1.93
Bet365
1.91
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Arka Gdynia over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
94.1%
@ 1.13+12.2%
Under
5.9%
@ 5.12-12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Under
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.35
BetVictor
5.25
Superbet
5.00
Betano
4.85
Arka Gdynia over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
77.4%
@ 1.70+23.0%
Under
22.6%
@ 2.02-23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.71
Superbet
1.71
BetVictor
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.17
BetVictor
2.05
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Arka Gdynia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
53.7%
@ 3.19+24.6%
Under
46.3%
@ 1.31-24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.26
BetVictor
3.20
Superbet
3.20
Betano
3.10
Under
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
BetVictor
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Arka Gdynia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
31.4%
@ 6.78+17.6%
Under
68.6%
@ 1.09-17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
6.60
1xBet
6.50
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
60.7%
@ 1.37-6.7%
Under
39.3%
@ 2.83+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
2.98
BetVictor
2.88
Superbet
2.87
Betano
2.87
10Bet
2.80
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.0%
@ 2.85-8.6%
Under
76.0%
@ 1.38+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.95
BetVictor
2.88
1xBet
2.84
Marathonbet
2.84
Under
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Superbet
1.40
1xBet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.9%
@ 7.00-6.4%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.07+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
6.80
Superbet
6.60
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.04
Polonia Bytom over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 17.17-4.1%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Arka Gdynia, so a minus line means Arka Gdynia give that many goals of a start and Polonia Bytom receive them. At -1, Arka Gdynia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Arka Gdynia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Arka Gdynia)Actual: Polonia Bytom
Arka Gdynia -2
35.7%
@ 5.80+20.2%
Draw -2
20.7%
@ 5.23+3.5%
Polonia Bytom +2
43.6%
@ 1.34-23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.60
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.20
Superbet
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Handicap -1 (Arka Gdynia)Actual: Polonia Bytom
Arka Gdynia -1
56.4%
@ 2.96+26.9%
Draw -1
19.4%
@ 3.62-4.8%
Polonia Bytom +1
24.1%
@ 1.89-22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.10
Superbet
3.05
10Bet
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Marathonbet
2.88
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.65
10Bet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Away
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Betfair
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
Handicap +1 (Arka Gdynia)Actual: Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia +1
91.0%
@ 1.20+17.0%
Draw +1
6.0%
@ 5.82-9.3%
Polonia Bytom -1
3.0%
@ 8.37-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.16
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
Superbet
5.60
Away
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.50
Superbet
7.60
Handicap +2 (Arka Gdynia)Actual: Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia +2
97.0%
@ 1.06+8.3%
Draw +2
2.3%
@ 13.00-5.0%
Polonia Bytom -2
0.7%
@ 23.00-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Away
Bet365
23.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arka Gdynia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.94
0.62
0.14
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.14
0.25
1.50
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.71
1.17
0.33
0.11
1.22
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
-
-
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Bytom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.00
0.44
1.00
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.67
1.08
0.42
0.75
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
1.00
0.67
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.3%
@ 1.29+1.8%
Under 0.5
26.7%
@ 3.23-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Under
William Hil
3.40
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
48.4%
@ 2.38+9.5%
Under 1.5
51.6%
@ 1.51-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.47
Pinnacle
2.46
Superbet
2.35
Under
William Hil
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Superbet
1.53
10Bet
1.53
BetVictor
1.52
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.0%
@ 5.39+1.8%
Under 2.5
81.0%
@ 1.12-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.25
Betano
5.10
Under
Betano
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arka Gdynia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
61.1%
@ 1.66+5.3%
Under
38.9%
@ 2.10-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.66
Superbet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Under
Pinnacle
2.20
1xBet
2.14
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.05
Betano
2.02
Arka Gdynia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
24.0%
@ 4.16+1.9%
Under
76.0%
@ 1.18-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Betano
4.10
1xBet
4.00
Under
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.16
Arka Gdynia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.7%
@ 10.50-0.2%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.02+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
33.1%
@ 2.31-7.1%
Under
66.9%
@ 1.55+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.41
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.28
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.23
Under
1xBet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.56
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.8%
@ 7.62-6.3%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.05+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.30
1xBet
7.70
Superbet
7.50
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 28.00-99.1%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
28.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arka Gdynia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.81
0.69
0.57
1.21
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.43
1.25
1.00
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.86
0.67
0.58
0.78
1.22
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Bytom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.20
0.75
1.00
1.14
1.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
0.79
1.17
0.58
0.92
1.00
1.42
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.00
1.33
1.33
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.4%
@ 1.17+4.2%
Under 0.5
16.6%
@ 4.46-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.15
Under
1xBet
4.70
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Betano
4.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
53.0%
@ 1.84+2.8%
Under 1.5
47.0%
@ 1.85-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
25.3%
@ 3.54-0.9%
Under 2.5
74.7%
@ 1.25+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
1xBet
3.40
Betano
3.35
Under
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arka Gdynia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
70.6%
@ 1.46+7.1%
Under
29.4%
@ 2.54-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Under
1xBet
2.60
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.47
Arka Gdynia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
33.2%
@ 3.10+3.5%
Under
66.8%
@ 1.31-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.14
Betano
3.00
1xBet
3.00
Under
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
Arka Gdynia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.5%
@ 7.60+0.3%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.05-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
8.20
1xBet
8.00
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
37.5%
@ 1.90-11.0%
Under
62.5%
@ 1.79+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.93
1xBet
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.87
Under
Betano
1.83
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.74
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.5%
@ 5.53-8.2%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.11+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.00
1xBet
5.60
Superbet
5.50
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 14.12-5.4%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
97.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.2%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
94.1%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
+12.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.1%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.04
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.5%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
-
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
91.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
91.3%
1.01
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
91.0%
1.19
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Superbet
1.21
+14.0%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
91.0%
1.20
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.16
-
-
+17.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
89.6%
1.19
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
+11.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
87.5%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
84.9%
1.23
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
+9.9%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.4%
1.17
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.15
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
82.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
-7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
81.0%
1.12
Betano
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
76.0%
1.38
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Superbet
1.40
1xBet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
+8.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.0%
1.18
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.16
-
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.7%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
-
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.3%
1.29
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
72.5%
1.64
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
10Bet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.64
+15.8%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 2H goals
70.6%
1.46
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
-
-
+7.1%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Arka Gdynia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vladislavs Gutkovskis25%
Oskar Kubiak21%
Nazariy Rusyn17%
Eduardo Espiau14%
Dawid Kocyła10%
Sebastian Kerk9%
Marc Navarro7%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Kamil Jakubczyk6%
Michał Marcjanik6%
Luis Perea5%
Kike Hermoso5%
Dawid Gojny5%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Tornike Gaprindashvili0%
Patryk Szysz0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Diego Percan0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Julien Celestine62%
Kamil Jakubczyk29%
Tornike Gaprindashvili24%
Dawid Gojny23%
Diego Percan22%
Aurélien Nguiamba21%
Kike Hermoso19%
Alassane Sidibe19%
Nazariy Rusyn17%
Luis Perea16%
Marc Navarro14%
Dawid Abramowicz14%
Jędrzej Grobelny14%
Vladislavs Gutkovskis12%
Michał Marcjanik12%
Michał Rzuchowski11%
Dominick Zator11%
Eduardo Espiau10%
Serafin Szota10%
Sebastian Kerk9%
Oskar Kubiak7%
Dawid Kocyła6%
Patryk Szysz0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sebastian Kerk18%
Marc Navarro14%
Diego Percan11%
Kike Hermoso10%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Oskar Kubiak7%
Vladislavs Gutkovskis6%
Tornike Gaprindashvili6%
Luis Perea5%
Dawid Gojny5%
Patryk Szysz4%
Kamil Jakubczyk3%
Nazariy Rusyn0%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Michał Marcjanik0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Dawid Kocyła0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Eduardo Espiau0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vladislavs Gutkovskis31%
Oskar Kubiak14%
Nazariy Rusyn13%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Kamil Jakubczyk6%
Sebastian Kerk6%
Kike Hermoso5%
Eduardo Espiau3%
Dawid Kocyła3%
Marc Navarro0%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Tornike Gaprindashvili0%
Michał Marcjanik0%
Patryk Szysz0%
Dawid Gojny0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
Luis Perea0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Diego Percan0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Arka Gdynia's squad is €2m more valuable than Polonia Bytom's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Arka Gdynia's attack is €1m more valuable than Polonia Bytom's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Arka Gdynia and Polonia Bytom have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Arka Gdynia's defence is €1m more valuable than Polonia Bytom's (€2m vs €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Miedz Legnica
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Polonia Warszawa
Warta Poznań
Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów