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Arka Gdynia vs Stal Rzeszów Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026
Time: 13:30
Final 4-0
Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia
Vs
49%
24%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
Poland: I Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

In the upcoming match between Arka Gdynia and Stal Rzeszów, recent form suggests that Arka Gdynia is on a 2-game winning run, having defeated Stal Rzeszów 4-0 in their last encounter. This momentum may contribute to the high-scoring nature of the match, as the expected total goals is 3.2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 11.1%. Arka Gdynia's home form is strong, scoring an average of 1.36 goals and conceding 0.82 goals against similar opponents. Stal Rzeszów's away form is less impressive, scoring 1.69 goals and conceding 2.08 goals against similar opponents.

The model's selection is the home win, with a probability of 49%. The suggested picks include Over 1.5, which has a high probability of 84.2% and an edge of 6%. The model's selection of the home win has a probability of 49%, with a 24% chance of a draw and a 27% chance of an away win.

Results analysis

Arka Gdynia's 4-0 win extends their 2-game winning run, with the home side now unbeaten in their last 4 matches. The actual result was a home win, which was the model's selection, coming in at a pre-match probability of 49%. The model's call was correct, as it correctly identified the favourite. The model's selection, Home win, proved to be the correct outcome. The suggested picks largely came in, with Over 1.5 hitting at a probability of 84.2%, providing a 6% edge.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arka Gdynia win✓ Hit
48.9%
Avg Implied 52.9% · @ 1.73
Edge
-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
SBO
1.77
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.73
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.04
Betano
3.85
Dafabet
3.80
Betfair
3.80
1xBet
3.78
Stal Rzeszów win✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied 22.7% · @ 4.03
Edge
+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.30
10Bet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
1xBet
4.11
Marathonbet
4.10

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Arka GdyniaArka Gdynia

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L31W22D03L14L11D00D23L03L10WA·KOR22/03H·ZAG07/04A·CRA12/04H·JAG19/04A·PIA27/04A·LEC08/05H·GOR13/05H·NIE18/05A·RAK23/05A·ODR24/07
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.801.401.270.672.33
vs Stronger (7)1.002.571.502.500.332.67
vs Similar (22)1.051.641.360.820.732.45
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Rzeszów) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-532W01L13L02L12L12L21W15L33D15LA·ZNI20/03H·ODR06/04A·STA11/04H·POL17/04A·ŁKS25/04H·WIS03/05A·POG10/05H·WIE16/05A·TYC24/05H·CHR25/07
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.931.131.871.672.00
vs Stronger (4)1.252.501.003.501.501.50
vs Similar (24)1.421.921.171.671.672.17
vs Weaker (2)1.501.001.001.002.001.00
Clean sheet %10% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.2%
@ 1.19+6.3%
Under 1.5
15.8%
@ 4.20-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.40
BetVictor
4.33
Unibet
4.30
10Bet
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.6%
@ 1.63+5.8%
Under 2.5
37.4%
@ 2.15-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
SBO
1.66
Superbet
1.66
BetVictor
1.65
Under
Unibet
2.25
SBO
2.21
Pinnacle
2.21
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.15
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.3%
@ 2.60+4.5%
Under 3.5
59.7%
@ 1.45-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.75
BetVictor
2.70
Pinnacle
2.68
Betfair
2.63
Superbet
2.60
Under
Unibet
1.50
Betano
1.47
Betfair
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.7%
@ 1.61+6.4%
No
36.3%
@ 2.16-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.63
BetVictor
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Betano
1.62
No
Unibet
2.25
William Hil
2.20
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.16
10Bet
2.15

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%@ 6.76+4.4%
2-1
9.4%@ 7.44+3.4%
2-0
7.0%@ 8.54+1.8%
1-2
6.8%@ 12.28+3.1%
1-0
6.5%@ 7.71+0.6%
2-2
6.4%@ 12.42+2.8%
3-1
5.9%@ 11.63+2.1%
0-0
5.0%@ 12.18+1.3%
Arka Gdynia goals ↓
Stal Rzeszów goals →
01234
05.0%4.3%3.6%1.6%0.5%
16.5%11%6.8%3.0%1.0%
27.0%9.4%6.4%2.9%1.0%
34.4%5.9%4.0%1.8%0.6%
42.1%2.8%1.9%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arka Gdynia goals (down), columns = Stal Rzeszów goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lechia Gdansk
1.96
Arka Gdynia
1.58
ŁKS Łódź
1.57
Ruch Chorzów
1.56
Chrobry Głogów
1.56
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Polonia Warszawa
1.51
Nieciecza
1.44
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.44
Polonia Bytom
1.38
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.32
Odra Opole
1.29
Stal Rzeszów
1.26
Pogoń Siedlce
1.06
Stal Mielec
1.06
Unia Skierniewice
0.82
Podbeskidzie
0.77
Warta Poznań
0.70
Arka Gdynia is 0.31 points better than Stal Rzeszów in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.26).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Lechia Gdansk
2.14
Arka Gdynia
1.72
Polonia Bytom
1.65
ŁKS Łódź
1.63
Ruch Chorzów
1.59
Nieciecza
1.58
Polonia Warszawa
1.54
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.50
Stal Mielec
1.50
Stal Rzeszów
1.44
Chrobry Głogów
1.39
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.32
Odra Opole
1.00
Pogoń Siedlce
0.97
Unia Skierniewice
0.90
Podbeskidzie
0.84
Warta Poznań
0.76
Arka Gdynia is 0.28 goals better than Stal Rzeszów in terms of goals scored per game (1.72 vs 1.44).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Lechia Gdansk
1.04
Chrobry Głogów
1.08
Odra Opole
1.18
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.18
Pogoń Siedlce
1.26
Arka Gdynia
1.29
Ruch Chorzów
1.35
ŁKS Łódź
1.40
Nieciecza
1.41
Polonia Bytom
1.47
Polonia Warszawa
1.49
Miedz Legnica
1.56
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.59
Stal Rzeszów
1.76
Stal Mielec
1.82
Unia Skierniewice
2.46
Podbeskidzie
2.64
Warta Poznań
2.92
Arka Gdynia is 0.48 goals better than Stal Rzeszów in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.76).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.2%1.19
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+6.3%✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (27)
€26m
AG (29)
€9m
NIE (25)
€6m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (12)
€18m
AG (9)
€3m
NIE (10)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (1)
€4m
AG (8)
€4m
NIE (7)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (14)
€5m
AG (12)
€3m
NIE (8)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Arka Gdynia vs Stal Rzeszów · H/A from AG
DateH/AGameScore
02/12/24HAG Vs Stal Rzeszów2-1
22/07/24AStal Rzeszów Vs AG1-0
25/02/24HAG Vs Stal Rzeszów5-1
13/08/23AStal Rzeszów Vs AG2-3
07/05/23AStal Rzeszów Vs AG2-1
09/10/22HAG Vs Stal Rzeszów2-2

Arka GdyniaArka Gdynia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/07/26AOdra Opole Vs AG0-1
23/05/26ARaków Częstochowa Vs AG3-0
18/05/26HAG Vs Nieciecza2-3
13/05/26HAG Vs Gornik Zabrze0-0
08/05/26ALech Poznan Vs AG1-1
27/04/26APiast Gliwice Vs AG4-1
19/04/26HAG Vs Jagiellonia0-3
12/04/26ACracovia Krakow Vs AG2-2
07/04/26HAG Vs Zaglebie Lubin3-1
22/03/26AKorona Kielce Vs AG3-0

Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/07/26HSR Vs Chrobry Głogów1-5
24/05/26ATychy 71 Vs SR3-3
16/05/26HSR Vs Wieczysta Kraków1-5
10/05/26APogoń Siedlce Vs SR1-2
03/05/26HSR Vs Wisla Krakow1-2
25/04/26AŁKS Łódź Vs SR2-1
17/04/26HSR Vs Polonia Warszawa0-2
11/04/26AStal Mielec Vs SR3-1
06/04/26HSR Vs Odra Opole0-1
20/03/26AZnicz Pruszków Vs SR2-3

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLW1.42
HomeDWLDL1.88
AwayDLDLW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%50%27%
AVG goals2.542.582.50
Over 1.5 %66%71%62%
Over 2.5 %54%62%46%
Over 3.5 %32%33%31%
Scored1.141.500.81
Conceded1.401.081.69
BTTS44%58%31%
Clean Sheet34%38%31%
Corners9.569.0610.06
Cards4.414.654.18
Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDL1.04
HomeLLLLL1.08
AwayWLLWD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%28%28%
AVG goals3.162.963.36
Over 1.5 %80%72%88%
Over 2.5 %68%60%76%
Over 3.5 %38%36%40%
Scored1.221.161.28
Conceded1.941.802.08
BTTS64%64%64%
Clean Sheet14%16%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki410
75%
2.5
61+5
1.8
50%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.2
-
2Stal MielecStal Mielec48
50%
2.0
117+4
4.5
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.8
-
3Chrobry GłogówChrobry Głogów47
50%
1.8
84+4
3.0
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
4Miedz LegnicaMiedz Legnica47
50%
1.8
62+4
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.5
-
5Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa47
50%
1.8
53+2
2.0
50%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
6ŁKS ŁódźŁKS Łódź47
50%
1.8
65+1
2.8
100%
75%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
7Arka GdyniaArka Gdynia36
67%
2.0
52+3
2.3
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3431.70.7
-
8Warta PoznańWarta Poznań46
50%
1.5
98+1
4.2
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.0
-
9NiecieczaNieciecza46
50%
1.5
65+1
2.8
100%
75%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.51.2
-
10Odra OpoleOdra Opole46
50%
1.5
55+0
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.2
-
11Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce45
25%
1.2
55+0
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.2
-
12PodbeskidziePodbeskidzie44
0%
1.0
77+0
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
13Polonia BytomPolonia Bytom44
25%
1.0
912-3
5.2
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.23.0
-
14Ruch ChorzówRuch Chorzów44
25%
1.0
25-3
1.8
75%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.2
-
15Puszcza NiepołomicePuszcza Niepołomice33
33%
1.0
33+0
2.0
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
16Unia SkierniewiceUnia Skierniewice43
25%
0.8
48-4
3.0
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
17Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów42
0%
0.5
311-8
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.8
-
18Lechia GdanskLechia Gdansk41
0%
0.2
29-7
2.8
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
26
18450.52.2
-
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →

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