Glenavon FC is expected to dominate Armagh City at home, with a predicted 79% chance of winning. This is largely due to Armagh City's struggles at home, having scored an average of 0.5 goals and conceded 3.0 goals against stronger opponents in their own venue. Glenavon FC, on the other hand, has shown impressive form away from home, with a strong recent win against Newry City AFC.
The predicted match result is an Away win, with a most likely scoreline of 0-2, occurring 11% of the time. The expected total number of goals is 3.6, with the most likely total being 3 goals. Armagh City's recent form has been inconsistent, coming off a defeat to Warrenpoint Town, while Glenavon FC is looking to build on their recent win.
The model's selection is the Away win, with a probability of 79%. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, occurring 87.8% of the time. In terms of probabilities, there is a 7% chance of an Armagh City win, a 14% chance of a draw, and a 79% chance of an Away win. The model's suggested picks also include the Away win, with a probability of 78.7%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Away win, did not materialise as the match finished 2-2, a draw that extended both sides’ recent runs of a single draw. The model’s call was wrong, with a 79 % probability for an away victory. The final score of 2-2 matched the actual result. The model’s selections proved accurate: Home under 3.5 goals hit at 99.2 %, Away +2 handicap hit at 97.9 %, Under 7.5 hit at 97.0 %, and Home under 2.5 goals hit at 95.6 %. The most likely total of 3 goals (21 %) was not reached, yet the game’s 4-goal tally still fell within the model’s high-probability range.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Armagh City win✗ Miss
7.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
14.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC win✗ Miss
78.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Armagh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
3.13
0.42
2.75
0.56
3.39
vs Stronger (23)
0.61
3.30
0.50
2.88
0.67
3.53
vs Similar (7)
0.14
2.57
0.25
2.50
0.00
2.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glenavon FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.70
1.50
1.50
1.36
1.93
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
2.55
1.29
2.00
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (19)
1.58
1.21
1.67
1.11
1.50
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.8%
Under 1.5
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.4%
Under 2.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.0%
Under 3.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.3%
No
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.0%
0-3
10.3%
1-2
8.5%
1-3
8.0%
0-1
7.2%
0-4
7.2%
1-1
6.7%
1-4
5.6%
Armagh City goals ↓
Glenavon FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
7.2%
11%
10%
7.2%
1
1.6%
6.7%
8.5%
8.0%
5.6%
2
0.8%
2.4%
3.3%
3.1%
2.2%
3
0.2%
0.6%
0.9%
0.8%
0.6%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Armagh City goals (down), columns = Glenavon FC goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Armagh City is 1.60 points worse than Glenavon FC in terms of average points per game (0.40 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Armagh City is 2.20 goals worse than Glenavon FC in terms of goals scored per game (0.60 vs 2.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Armagh City is 0.20 goals better than Glenavon FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Armagh City or Draw✓ Hit
21.3%
Avg Implied -
7%
14%
79%
covers Armagh City + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Armagh City or Glenavon FC✗ Miss
85.7%
Avg Implied -
7%
14%
79%
covers Armagh City + Glenavon FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Glenavon FC✓ Hit
93.0%
Avg Implied -
7%
14%
79%
covers Draw + Glenavon FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Armagh City over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
54.0%
Under
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
93.9%
Under
6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
76.9%
Under
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
53.1%
Under
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
30.9%
Under
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Armagh City, so a minus line means Armagh City give that many goals of a start and Glenavon FC receive them. At -1, Armagh City must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Armagh City win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Armagh City)Actual: Glenavon FC
Armagh City -2
0.4%
Draw -2
1.6%
Glenavon FC +2
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Armagh City)Actual: Glenavon FC
Armagh City -1
2.1%
Draw -1
4.9%
Glenavon FC +1
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Armagh City)Actual: Armagh City
Armagh City +1
21.3%
Draw +1
19.4%
Glenavon FC -1
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Armagh City)Actual: Armagh City
Armagh City +2
40.8%
Draw +2
21.4%
Glenavon FC -2
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Armagh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.13
1.23
0.25
0.83
0.06
1.50
vs Stronger (23)
0.13
1.35
0.25
0.88
0.07
1.60
vs Similar (7)
0.14
0.86
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glenavon FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.69
0.56
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
0.82
0.43
0.57
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.74
0.89
0.56
0.30
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.1%
Under 0.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
32.8%
Under 1.5
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.2%
Under 2.5
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Armagh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
46.6%
Under
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.0%
Under
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Armagh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.90
0.17
1.92
0.50
1.89
vs Stronger (23)
0.48
1.96
0.25
2.00
0.60
1.93
vs Similar (7)
0.00
1.71
0.00
1.75
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glenavon FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.93
0.81
0.94
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.73
0.86
1.43
0.25
2.25
vs Similar (19)
1.00
0.47
0.78
0.56
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
82.6%
Under 0.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
47.0%
Under 1.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.9%
Under 2.5
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Armagh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.9%
Under
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
51.8%
Under
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away win
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 1.5 goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
Armagh City and Glenavon FC have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
Armagh City and Glenavon FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
Armagh City and Glenavon FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
Armagh City and Glenavon FC have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →