Armagh City, who have been struggling at home against stronger opposition, will face Institute, who have been scoring freely on the road. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.3 goals and the most likely total number of goals being three. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.9 % chance. The favoured result is an away win, with a 60 % probability, while home and draw win chances stand at 18 % and 22 % respectively. Armagh City average 0.67 goals scored and 2.78 conceded at home; Institute average 2.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded away. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.0 %), Under 6.5 (94.7 %), Away +2 handicap (92.7 %), Home under 2.5 goals (88.9 %), Away over 0.5 goals (88.7 %), Under 5.5 (87.9 %) and Over 1.5 (85.4 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Armagh City win
18.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Institute win
59.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Armagh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
3.00
0.58
2.75
0.50
3.17
vs Stronger (23)
0.65
3.13
0.75
2.88
0.60
3.27
vs Similar (7)
0.14
2.57
0.25
2.50
0.00
2.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Institute
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.33
1.67
1.20
1.53
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.43
1.50
1.57
0.86
1.29
2.14
vs Weaker (16)
1.75
1.19
1.75
1.50
1.75
0.88
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.4%
Under 1.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.7%
Under 2.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.7%
Under 3.5
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.7%
No
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.5%
1-3
7.1%
0-1
6.9%
0-3
6.1%
2-2
5.7%
2-1
5.2%
Armagh City goals ↓
Institute goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
6.9%
8.5%
6.1%
3.3%
1
3.2%
9.9%
9.8%
7.1%
3.9%
2
2.4%
5.2%
5.7%
4.1%
2.2%
3
0.9%
2.0%
2.2%
1.6%
0.9%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Armagh City goals (down), columns = Institute goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Armagh City is 0.40 points worse than Institute in terms of average points per game (0.40 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Armagh City is 0.20 goals worse than Institute in terms of goals scored per game (0.60 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Armagh City is 0.40 goals better than Institute in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Armagh City or Draw
40.4%
Avg Implied -
18%
22%
60%
covers Armagh City + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Armagh City or Institute
78.1%
Avg Implied -
18%
22%
60%
covers Armagh City + Institute
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Institute
81.5%
Avg Implied -
18%
22%
60%
covers Draw + Institute
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Armagh City over/under 0.5
Over
68.6%
Under
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 1.5
Over
32.2%
Under
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 2.5
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 0.5
Over
88.6%
Under
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5
Over
63.9%
Under
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5
Over
37.0%
Under
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 3.5
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Armagh City, so a minus line means Armagh City give that many goals of a start and Institute receive them. At -1, Armagh City must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Armagh City win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Armagh City)
Armagh City -2
2.2%
Draw -2
5.1%
Institute +2
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Armagh City)
Armagh City -1
7.4%
Draw -1
11.1%
Institute +1
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Armagh City)
Armagh City +1
40.4%
Draw +1
21.7%
Institute -1
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Armagh City)
Armagh City +2
62.1%
Draw +2
18.2%
Institute -2
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Armagh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.13
1.17
0.33
0.83
0.00
1.39
vs Stronger (23)
0.13
1.26
0.38
0.88
0.00
1.47
vs Similar (7)
0.14
0.86
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Institute
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
0.80
0.40
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.57
0.43
0.14
0.71
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.38
1.12
0.62
0.38
0.12
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.9%
Under 0.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.5%
Under 1.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.8%
Under 2.5
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Armagh City over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.7%
Under
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 0.5 HT
Over
59.3%
Under
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 HT
Over
23.3%
Under
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Armagh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.83
0.25
1.92
0.50
1.78
vs Stronger (23)
0.52
1.87
0.38
2.00
0.60
1.80
vs Similar (7)
0.00
1.71
0.00
1.75
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Institute
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.87
0.87
0.80
1.00
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.93
1.14
0.71
0.57
1.14
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.81
0.62
0.88
1.38
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Armagh City) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.3%
Under 0.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.7%
Under 1.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.4%
Under 2.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Armagh City over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.1%
Under
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Armagh City over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 0.5 2H
Over
69.6%
Under
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 2H
Over
30.9%
Under
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →