This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.63
2.00
1.38
1.71
1.93
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.70
1.80
1.80
1.50
1.60
2.10
vs Weaker (9)
2.11
1.33
2.20
1.20
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
66.5%
Under 2.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.8%
Under 3.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.1%
No
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
7.9%
2-2
7.0%
0-2
5.1%
1-3
5.0%
0-1
4.8%
2-0
4.4%
Arminia Bielefeld goals ↓
Holstein Kiel goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
4.8%
5.1%
3.0%
1.3%
1
4.4%
10%
8.5%
5.0%
2.2%
2
4.4%
7.9%
7.0%
4.1%
1.8%
3
2.4%
4.3%
3.8%
2.3%
1.0%
4
1.0%
1.8%
1.6%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arminia Bielefeld goals (down), columns = Holstein Kiel goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
1. FC Köln
1.85
SC Paderborn 07
1.68
Union Berlin
1.68
Hamburger SV
1.65
1. FC Heidenheim
1.62
FC St. Pauli
1.44
Arminia Bielefeld
1.44
Holstein Kiel
1.44
Regensburg
1.44
SV Darmstadt 98
1.35
VfL Bochum
1.29
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.24
Dynamo Dresden
1.24
Erzgebirge Aue
1.18
SV Sandhausen
1.12
Ingolstadt
1.03
1. FC Magdeburg
0.91
Duisburg
0.82
Arminia Bielefeld and Holstein Kiel are level in average points per game (both 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
1. FC Köln
2.47
SC Paderborn 07
2.24
Holstein Kiel
1.76
1. FC Heidenheim
1.62
Regensburg
1.62
Union Berlin
1.59
Arminia Bielefeld
1.53
VfL Bochum
1.44
FC St. Pauli
1.35
Hamburger SV
1.32
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
SV Sandhausen
1.32
Erzgebirge Aue
1.26
Ingolstadt
1.26
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
Duisburg
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.09
1. FC Magdeburg
1.03
Arminia Bielefeld is 0.24 goals worse than Holstein Kiel in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Union Berlin
0.97
Hamburger SV
1.24
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
1. FC Köln
1.38
Erzgebirge Aue
1.38
Dynamo Dresden
1.41
SC Paderborn 07
1.47
Arminia Bielefeld
1.47
VfL Bochum
1.47
Holstein Kiel
1.50
SV Sandhausen
1.53
FC St. Pauli
1.56
1. FC Magdeburg
1.56
SV Darmstadt 98
1.56
Regensburg
1.59
Ingolstadt
1.62
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.65
Duisburg
1.91
Arminia Bielefeld is 0.03 goals better than Holstein Kiel in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arminia Bielefeld
For 4.8 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 12.9 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Holstein Kiel
For 7.1 · Against 5.0 · Total 12.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 12.5 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arminia Bielefeld
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.0
10.5
3.7
4.0
3.3
26.2
26.4
25.9
vs Stronger (14)
8.4
7.1
9.7
3.1
3.6
2.7
26.0
28.4
23.6
vs Similar (36)
10.3
9.8
10.8
3.9
4.2
3.6
26.2
25.7
26.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
36%
52%
50%
60%
40%
86%
84%
88%
% under line
56%
64%
48%
50%
40%
60%
14%
16%
12%
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
11.4
11.4
3.9
3.7
4.2
26.1
26.8
25.4
vs Stronger (2)
13.5
13.0
14.0
3.0
2.0
4.0
25.5
29.0
22.0
vs Similar (33)
11.4
11.8
11.0
3.8
3.8
3.8
26.2
27.2
25.4
vs Weaker (15)
11.2
10.5
12.0
4.3
3.6
5.1
26.0
25.9
26.1
% over line
64%
68%
60%
56%
48%
64%
80%
84%
76%
% under line
36%
32%
40%
44%
52%
36%
20%
16%
24%
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
11.4
Holstein Kiel
11.4
SC Paderborn 07
11.4
Regensburg
10.8
1. FC Köln
10.6
SV Darmstadt 98
10.4
VfL Bochum
10.4
1. FC Heidenheim
10.3
Ingolstadt
10.2
Union Berlin
9.9
Hamburger SV
9.8
Arminia Bielefeld
9.8
FC St. Pauli
9.5
SV Sandhausen
9.5
Erzgebirge Aue
9.5
Duisburg
9.3
Dynamo Dresden
9.1
1. FC Magdeburg
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SC Paderborn 07
5.2
1. FC Magdeburg
4.8
Regensburg
4.7
Erzgebirge Aue
4.7
1. FC Köln
4.5
Duisburg
4.5
Dynamo Dresden
4.5
1. FC Heidenheim
4.2
SV Sandhausen
4.2
SV Darmstadt 98
4.2
VfL Bochum
4.2
Union Berlin
4.1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.1
FC St. Pauli
4.1
Hamburger SV
4.0
Ingolstadt
3.9
Holstein Kiel
3.9
Arminia Bielefeld
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ingolstadt
30.1
1. FC Köln
29.6
Regensburg
29.4
Union Berlin
29.0
Dynamo Dresden
28.6
Duisburg
28.4
SV Sandhausen
28.1
VfL Bochum
28.0
Erzgebirge Aue
27.4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
27.4
SC Paderborn 07
26.9
1. FC Heidenheim
26.8
SV Darmstadt 98
26.6
1. FC Magdeburg
26.3
Arminia Bielefeld
26.2
Holstein Kiel
26.1
Hamburger SV
26.1
FC St. Pauli
25.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.4%
Under 9.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.5%
Under 3.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
79.7%
Under 21.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arminia Bielefeld
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.80
0.53
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.75
0.80
0.60
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.55
0.80
0.50
0.58
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.69
0.50
0.86
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.85
0.40
0.70
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.44
1.00
0.20
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arminia Bielefeld
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.90
0.80
1.07
1.07
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.12
0.40
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.82
1.00
1.10
1.17
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.93
1.31
0.88
0.86
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.05
0.95
1.40
0.80
0.70
1.10
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.89
1.20
1.00
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Arminia Bielefeld) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arminia Bielefeld over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Arminia Bielefeld · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joel Grodowski50%
Marvin Mehlem25%
Stefano Russo25%
Marius Wörl25%
Sam Schreck0%
Arne Sicker0%
Maximilian Bauer0%
Tim Handwerker0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Isaiah Young0%
Jonas Thomas Kersken0%
Jannik Rochelt0%
Monju Momuluh0%
Maximilian Großer0%
Henri Koudossou0%
Benjamin Boakye0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Arne Sicker33%
Sam Schreck25%
Tim Handwerker25%
Joel Grodowski25%
Benjamin Boakye25%
Marvin Mehlem0%
Maximilian Bauer0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Stefano Russo0%
Isaiah Young0%
Jonas Thomas Kersken0%
Jannik Rochelt0%
Monju Momuluh0%
Maximilian Großer0%
Henri Koudossou0%
Marius Wörl0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Maximilian Bauer25%
Isaiah Young25%
Henri Koudossou25%
Sam Schreck0%
Arne Sicker0%
Marvin Mehlem0%
Tim Handwerker0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Stefano Russo0%
Joel Grodowski0%
Jonas Thomas Kersken0%
Jannik Rochelt0%
Monju Momuluh0%
Maximilian Großer0%
Benjamin Boakye0%
Marius Wörl0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joel Grodowski50%
Sam Schreck0%
Arne Sicker0%
Marvin Mehlem0%
Maximilian Bauer0%
Tim Handwerker0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Stefano Russo0%
Isaiah Young0%
Jonas Thomas Kersken0%
Jannik Rochelt0%
Monju Momuluh0%
Maximilian Großer0%
Henri Koudossou0%
Benjamin Boakye0%
Marius Wörl0%
Holstein Kiel · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi50%
Jonas Therkelsen25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kasper Davidsen75%
Ivan Nekić50%
Jonas Therkelsen50%
Hiroki Sekine50%
Timon Weiner33%
Leon Parduzi33%
Jonas Meffert25%
Guillermo Balzi25%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Phil Harres0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Phil Harres50%
Adrián Kaprálik50%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Guillermo Balzi0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
1FK (74)
€133m
UB (29)
€123m
HS (28)
€117m
FSP (27)
€46m
SP0 (33)
€43m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
SD9 (28)
€24m
1FM (26)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
DUI (26)
€9m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
Arminia Bielefeld's squad is €17m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€18m vs €34m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
1FK (25)
€72m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
1FH (11)
€15m
SP0 (11)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FM (9)
€10m
FSP (7)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
SGF (6)
€4m
DUI (12)
€4m
ING (10)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
Arminia Bielefeld's attack is €5m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€7m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (5)
€34m
UB (6)
€26m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
FSP (8)
€15m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
1FM (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
DUI (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
Arminia Bielefeld's midfield is €3m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€4m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (13)
€50m
1FK (33)
€43m
HS (12)
€37m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FH (11)
€12m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
1FM (13)
€7m
ING (12)
€3m
DUI (10)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
Arminia Bielefeld's defence is €8m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€7m vs €16m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
1. FC Köln
SC Paderborn 07
Union Berlin
Hamburger SV
1. FC Heidenheim
FC St. Pauli
SV Darmstadt 98
VfL Bochum
Dynamo Dresden
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Erzgebirge Aue
SV Sandhausen
Ingolstadt
1. FC Magdeburg
Duisburg