PythiaFootballBETA
The model favours an away win for Bate Borisov, with a 56% chance of victory, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 19% chance of an Arsenal win. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly high-scoring game, but the most likely total is two goals, with a 26% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.2% chance.
Arsenal, playing at home, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.38 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Bate Borisov, on the road, averages 1.1 scored and 1.9 conceded. Arsenal’s recent five-match losing streak, ending with a 2-4 defeat to Torpedo Zhodino, contrasts with Bate’s recent win and a 2-1 victory over FC Minsk.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.3%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.5%, Under 6.5 at 97.9%, Under 5.5 at 94.3%, Away +2 handicap at 93.4%, Home under 2.5 goals at 93.2%, Under 5.5 cards at 89.7%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 89.6%. Each pick is presented with its exact probability.
Arsenal (Belarus)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.37 | 1.00 | 1.53 | 0.73 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.89 | 1.30 | 1.00 | 1.38 | 0.79 | 1.21 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Bate Borisov| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 1.63 | 1.50 | 1.64 | 1.06 | 1.62 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.05 | 1.90 | 1.10 | 1.90 | 1.00 | 1.91 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 2.40 | 1.00 | 3.50 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Bate Borisov goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.4% | 11% | 9.8% | 5.4% | 2.2% |
| 1 | 5.9% | 13% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 2.2% |
| 2 | 3.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Arsenal (Belarus)Bate BorisovArsenal (Belarus)| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 21.4 | 23.2 | 17.0 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 15.0 | 15.0 | - | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 29.0 | 29.0 | - |
| vs Similar (43) | 8.1 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 20.2 | 21.8 | 17.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 25% | 20% | 33% | 30% | 28% | 32% | 43% | 60% | 0% |
| % under line | 75% | 80% | 67% | 70% | 72% | 68% | 57% | 40% | 100% |
Bate Borisov| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.8 | 15.0 | 11.2 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 26.2 | 18.0 | 28.2 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 11.0 | - | 11.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 34.0 | - | 34.0 |
| vs Similar (34) | 12.0 | 15.0 | 11.2 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 24.2 | 18.0 | 26.3 |
| vs Weaker (9) | - | - | - | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.2 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 100% | 100% | 100% | 34% | 25% | 42% | 80% | 0% | 100% |
| % under line | 0% | 0% | 0% | 66% | 75% | 58% | 20% | 100% | 0% |
Arsenal (Belarus)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.50 | 0.27 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.44 | 0.52 | 0.23 | 0.31 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Bate Borisov| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.77 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.12 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.24 | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.09 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.00 | 0.40 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Arsenal (Belarus)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.87 | 0.73 | 1.20 | 0.13 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 1.67 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.44 | 0.78 | 0.77 | 1.08 | 0.14 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Bate Borisov| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 0.94 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.81 | 1.00 | 0.70 | 1.10 | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.40 | 0.60 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 99.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 98.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 98.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 94.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 92.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 92.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 91.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 cards | 90.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 88.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 87.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 80.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 cards | 78.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Draw or Away | 78.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +1 handicap | 78.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 77.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 77.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 75.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 goals | 74.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 73.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 72.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 8.5 corners | 72.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 71.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 02/05/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 20/10/24 | A | 3-2 | |
| 26/05/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 12/11/22 | H | 0-2 | |
| 15/07/22 | A | 1-2 |
Arsenal (Belarus)| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 14/08/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 07/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 12/07/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 04/07/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 29/11/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 22/11/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 08/11/25 | A | 1-0 |
Bate Borisov| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 30/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 23/08/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 09/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 30/07/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 30/11/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 23/11/25 | H | 5-0 | |
| 09/11/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 02/11/25 | A | 0-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  FC Vitebsk | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 1.4 | 29% | 14% | 0% | 9.8 | 50% | 2.8 | 0% | 20.2 | 25% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2 |  FC Isloch Minsk R. | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 11.6 | 80% | 3.2 | 20% | 26.2 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 47% |
| 3 |  Dinamo Brest | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 50% | 11.0 | 100% | 3.4 | 40% | 27.8 | 100% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 4 |  Neman | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 1.7 | 50% | 17% | 0% | 9.4 | 60% | 3.0 | 20% | 27.7 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 5 |  FC Minsk | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 11.2 | 60% | 1.8 | 0% | 19.4 | 20% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 6 |  Baranovichi | 7 | 9 | 29% | 1.3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 2.7 | 71% | 29% | 29% | 11.8 | 80% | 2.8 | 25% | 28.2 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 44% |
| 7 |  FC Gomel | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 1.8 | 33% | 17% | 17% | 11.8 | 75% | 3.2 | 50% | 28.7 | 100% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 55% |
| 8 |  ML Vitebsk | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 25% | 13.2 | 100% | 3.8 | 75% | 27.8 | 75% | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 63% |
| 9 | Bate Borisov | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 2.0 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 11.8 | 100% | 3.7 | 33% | 25.3 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 10 |  Slavia Mozyr | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.6 | 60% | 60% | 40% | 10.2 | 50% | 4.2 | 75% | 26.5 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 11 |  Dinamo Minsk | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 12.2 | 100% | 3.0 | 33% | 27.8 | 75% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 60% |
| 12 |  Belshina | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.2 | 83% | 17% | 17% | 11.4 | 80% | 2.6 | 40% | 21.8 | 60% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 43% |
| 13 |  FC Dnepr Mogilev | 7 | 4 | 0% | 0.6 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2.1 | 57% | 43% | 14% | 10.5 | 83% | 2.7 | 17% | 22.5 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 14 |  Torpedo Zhodino | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.3 | 50% | 33% | 33% | 10.2 | 75% | 3.2 | 75% | 30.5 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 54% |
| 15 |  Naftan | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4.2 | 100% | 67% | 50% | 10.2 | 60% | 1.8 | 0% | 21.4 | 20% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 43% |
| 16 | Arsenal (Belarus) | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 3.1 | 86% | 71% | 29% | 8.1 | 14% | 1.6 | 14% | 20.2 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 48% |