Arsenal (Belarus) are the clear favourites, with a 52% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw and a 22% chance of a Dnepr win. The model predicts an average of 2.7 goals, most likely a 1-1 scoreline at 12.6%. Arsenal’s home form shows 0.91 goals scored and 1.18 conceded against similar opposition, while Dnepr, on the road, averages 1.11 scored and 1.44 conceded. The match is expected to be low-scoring, reflected in the suggested picks: Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Under 5.5 (94.3%), Under 5.5 cards (92.1%), Home +2 handicap (91.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.6%) and Home under 3.5 goals (90.9%). Arsenal’s recent five-match losing streak and Dnepr’s recent draw set the stage for a cautious, defensive encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arsenal (Belarus) win
49.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev win
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Arsenal (Belarus)
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.37
1.00
1.53
0.73
1.20
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.00
1.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.89
1.30
1.00
1.38
0.79
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.13
1.44
1.06
1.36
1.21
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
1.23
1.27
1.31
1.15
1.11
1.44
vs Weaker (7)
2.14
0.86
2.00
0.67
2.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal (Belarus)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.8%
Under 2.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.3%
No
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
9.1%
0-0
8.1%
1-2
6.2%
0-1
6.1%
3-1
5.1%
Arsenal (Belarus) goals ↓
FC Dnepr Mogilev goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
6.1%
3.8%
1.3%
0.4%
1
10%
13%
6.2%
2.2%
0.6%
2
9.1%
9.5%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.9%
5.1%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.0%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arsenal (Belarus) goals (down), columns = FC Dnepr Mogilev goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.67
FC Vitebsk
2.57
ML Vitebsk
2.00
Neman
1.67
Dinamo Brest
1.67
Bate Borisov
1.60
Dinamo Minsk
1.50
FC Minsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
Belshina
1.00
Naftan
0.67
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.57
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.43
Arsenal (Belarus) is 0.14 points worse than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of average points per game (0.43 vs 0.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.25
Dinamo Brest
2.00
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.83
ML Vitebsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
FC Vitebsk
1.29
Naftan
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Bate Borisov
1.00
Neman
1.00
Belshina
0.83
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.71
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.71
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
Arsenal (Belarus) and FC Dnepr Mogilev are level in goals scored per game (both 0.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.14
ML Vitebsk
0.50
FC Gomel
0.50
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.67
Neman
0.67
Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Bate Borisov
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Slavia Mozyr
1.20
Belshina
1.33
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.43
Baranovichi
1.43
Torpedo Zhodino
1.67
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.43
Naftan
3.00
Arsenal (Belarus) is 1.00 goals worse than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of goals conceded per game (2.43 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
ML Vitebsk
63%
Dinamo Minsk
60%
Neman
58%
FC Gomel
55%
Torpedo Zhodino
54%
Dinamo Brest
52%
FC Dnepr Mogilev
50%
Slavia Mozyr
49%
Arsenal (Belarus)
48%
FC Minsk
48%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
47%
Bate Borisov
46%
FC Vitebsk
46%
Baranovichi
44%
Belshina
43%
Naftan
43%
Arsenal (Belarus) is 2.5 percentage points worse than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of average possession (48% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arsenal (Belarus)
For 4.2 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 9.9 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Dnepr Mogilev
For 3.8 · Against 6.7 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 10.2 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arsenal (Belarus)
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.0
9.0
2.9
2.8
3.0
21.4
23.2
17.0
vs Stronger (7)
15.0
15.0
-
1.6
2.0
1.4
29.0
29.0
-
vs Similar (43)
8.1
7.5
9.0
3.1
2.9
3.4
20.2
21.8
17.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
25%
20%
33%
30%
29%
31%
43%
60%
0%
% under line
75%
80%
67%
70%
71%
69%
57%
40%
100%
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.5
10.5
0.7
0.7
0.8
22.5
22.2
23.0
vs Stronger (3)
10.0
-
10.0
0.3
0.0
1.0
26.0
-
26.0
vs Similar (37)
10.6
10.5
11.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
21.8
22.2
20.0
vs Weaker (10)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
83%
75%
100%
6%
4%
8%
50%
50%
50%
% under line
17%
25%
0%
94%
96%
92%
50%
50%
50%
This opponent (Arsenal (Belarus)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bate Borisov
11.8
Baranovichi
11.8
FC Gomel
11.8
ML Vitebsk
11.7
FC Isloch Minsk R.
11.0
Dinamo Brest
11.0
Belshina
10.9
Dinamo Minsk
10.9
Slavia Mozyr
10.8
Torpedo Zhodino
10.2
Naftan
10.2
FC Dnepr Mogilev
10.0
FC Vitebsk
9.8
FC Minsk
9.7
Arsenal (Belarus)
9.0
Neman
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.8
ML Vitebsk
4.3
Bate Borisov
3.6
Slavia Mozyr
3.4
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.4
Dinamo Minsk
3.2
Neman
3.1
FC Gomel
3.1
FC Vitebsk
3.1
Naftan
3.0
FC Minsk
2.9
Dinamo Brest
2.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.8
Baranovichi
2.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.7
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ML Vitebsk
31.5
Torpedo Zhodino
30.5
FC Gomel
28.7
Baranovichi
28.2
Dinamo Brest
27.8
Slavia Mozyr
27.0
Bate Borisov
26.2
Dinamo Minsk
26.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
25.8
FC Dnepr Mogilev
22.5
Neman
21.8
Belshina
21.8
Arsenal (Belarus)
21.4
Naftan
21.4
FC Vitebsk
20.2
FC Minsk
17.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.9%
Under 9.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
34.1%
Under 3.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
71.4%
Under 21.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Arsenal (Belarus) or Draw
76.5%
Avg Implied -
49%
27%
24%
covers Arsenal (Belarus) + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) or FC Dnepr Mogilev
72.8%
Avg Implied -
49%
27%
24%
covers Arsenal (Belarus) + FC Dnepr Mogilev
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Dnepr Mogilev
50.7%
Avg Implied -
49%
27%
24%
covers Draw + FC Dnepr Mogilev
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 0.5
Over
80.1%
Under
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 1.5
Over
48.0%
Under
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 2.5
Over
22.0%
Under
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 3.5
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5
Over
65.0%
Under
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5
Over
28.3%
Under
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Arsenal (Belarus), so a minus line means Arsenal (Belarus) give that many goals of a start and FC Dnepr Mogilev receive them. At -1, Arsenal (Belarus) must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Arsenal (Belarus) win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Arsenal (Belarus))
Arsenal (Belarus) -2
11.2%
Draw -2
15.4%
FC Dnepr Mogilev +2
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Arsenal (Belarus))
Arsenal (Belarus) -1
26.6%
Draw -1
22.7%
FC Dnepr Mogilev +1
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Arsenal (Belarus))
Arsenal (Belarus) +1
76.5%
Draw +1
14.4%
FC Dnepr Mogilev -1
9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Arsenal (Belarus))
Arsenal (Belarus) +2
90.8%
Draw +2
6.5%
FC Dnepr Mogilev -2
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arsenal (Belarus)
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.50
0.27
0.33
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.44
0.52
0.23
0.31
0.64
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.69
0.44
0.57
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.50
0.69
0.46
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.43
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal (Belarus)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arsenal (Belarus)
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.73
1.20
0.13
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.67
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.44
0.78
0.77
1.08
0.14
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
0.75
0.62
0.79
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.77
0.62
0.69
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.43
1.33
0.33
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal (Belarus)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.0%
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Home or Draw
76.5%
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-
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Home +1 handicap
76.5%
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-
-
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Over 1.5
75.7%
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Away +2 handicap
73.4%
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Home or Away
72.8%
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Under 3.5
72.2%
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Away under 1.5 goals
71.7%
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Over 21.5 fouls
71.4%
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Over 8.5 corners
70.8%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
Arsenal (Belarus)'s squad is €2m less valuable than FC Dnepr Mogilev's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
NAF (4)
€0m
Arsenal (Belarus) and FC Dnepr Mogilev have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Arsenal (Belarus) and FC Dnepr Mogilev have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Arsenal (Belarus) and FC Dnepr Mogilev have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →