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Arsenal (Belarus) vs FC Minsk Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026
Time: 17:00
Final 1-2
Arsenal (Belarus)
Arsenal (Belarus)
Vs
27%
29%
44%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Minsk
FC Minsk
Belarus: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Odd / Even7 Home & Away Over/Under8 Handicap9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Arsenal (Belarus) face FC Minsk in the Belarus Premier League on August 1, 2026. The big storyline here is FC Minsk's impressive recent form, having won their last five games, including a 1-0 victory over FC Gomel. Meanwhile, Arsenal (Belarus) have struggled, suffering three straight defeats before a recent draw and loss. This trend suggests FC Minsk could be a strong selection.

The model predicts an away win, with a 44% chance of a FC Minsk victory. The expected total goals is 2.5, and the most likely score is a 1-1 draw, occurring 13.7% of the time. Arsenal (Belarus) have struggled at home, scoring 0.67 goals and conceding 1.08, while FC Minsk have excelled away, scoring 1.71 and conceding 1.14 against similar opponents.

The model's selections include Under 9.5 corners (100%), Under 21.5 fouls (100%), Under 3.5 goals (75.1%), and Over 1.5 goals (73.1%). The model's edge in the Under 9.5 corners selection is notable, with a 43% edge. The home win percentage is 27%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 44%.

Results analysis

Arsenal (Belarus) extended their recent struggles, as the away side's win marked their 5th consecutive victory. The final score was 1-2, with the away team securing the win. The model's selection, the away win, proved correct, reflecting the pre-match probability of 44%. The model's call was well-supported, as the suggested picks largely came in, with all selections hitting their mark. The under 9.5 corners, under 21.5 fouls, under 3.5 goals, and over 1.5 goals all landed, each with respective probabilities of 100%, 100%, 75.1%, and 73.1%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arsenal (Belarus) win✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied 30.9% · @ 2.97
Edge
-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.16
Superbet
3.15
Marathonbet
3.12
888Sport
3.00
Pinnacle
2.98
Draw✗ Miss
28.8%
Avg Implied 29.3% · @ 3.12
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.25
Pinnacle
3.23
Superbet
3.15
888Sport
3.10
FC Minsk win✓ Hit
44.4%
Avg Implied 39.8% · @ 2.31
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.45
Dafabet
2.43
Pinnacle
2.39
William Hil
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Arsenal (Belarus)Arsenal (Belarus)

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L01L10W00D01L21W02L10W03LA·FC 04/10A·NEM10/10H·FC 17/10A·MOL26/10H·FC 02/11A·DIN08/11H·FC 22/11A·NAF29/11A·NEM04/07H·FC 12/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.170.801.270.871.07
vs Stronger (10)0.501.800.602.000.401.60
vs Similar (18)0.830.890.780.890.890.89
vs Weaker (2)2.500.502.001.003.000.00
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC MinskFC Minsk

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W11D10W14L22D10W14L32W20W21WH·FC 21/09A·ARS26/09H·DIN03/10A·ML 19/10H·SMO24/10A·TOR02/11H·NEM08/11A·SLA23/11H·BAT30/11A·FC 10/07
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.531.641.571.621.50
vs Stronger (10)1.002.401.002.601.002.20
vs Similar (18)1.891.171.881.121.901.20
vs Weaker (2)2.500.503.000.002.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal (Belarus)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%222%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.1%
@ 1.34+4.1%
Under 1.5
26.9%
@ 2.97-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Under
Pinnacle
3.14
Superbet
2.95
1xBet
2.94
Marathonbet
2.94
888Sport
2.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.4%
@ 2.11+1.9%
Under 2.5
53.6%
@ 1.69-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.14
Superbet
2.12
888Sport
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Under
Marathonbet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.71
1xBet
1.71
888Sport
1.67
Superbet
1.65
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.9%
@ 3.67-0.1%
Under 3.5
75.1%
@ 1.22+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.80
Superbet
3.70
1xBet
3.62
Marathonbet
3.54
Under
Superbet
1.24
888Sport
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.8%
@ 1.84+1.5%
No
48.2%
@ 1.86-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
No
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.86
Superbet
1.85
888Sport
1.85
William Hil
1.85

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%@ 5.59+5.8%
0-1
10.3%@ 6.83+3.8%
0-0
9.2%@ 7.96+3.7%
1-2 ✓
9.0%@ 9.06+4.2%
0-2
8.4%@ 10.77+4.3%
1-0
7.3%@ 7.71+1.6%
2-1
6.7%@ 10.03+2.3%
2-2
4.9%@ 14.54+1.8%
Arsenal (Belarus) goals ↓
FC Minsk goals →
01234
09.2%10%8.4%4.1%1.5%
17.3%14%9.0%4.4%1.6%
24.6%6.7%4.9%2.4%0.9%
31.7%2.4%1.8%0.8%0.3%
40.5%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arsenal (Belarus) goals (down), columns = FC Minsk goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
ML Vitebsk
2.27
Dinamo Minsk
2.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.90
FC Minsk
1.70
Dinamo Brest
1.70
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.63
Torpedo Zhodino
1.63
Belshina
1.50
Neman
1.50
FC Gomel
1.43
Bate Borisov
1.33
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.31
Baranovichi
1.28
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.03
Naftan
0.93
Arsenal (Belarus) is 0.60 points worse than FC Minsk in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 1.70).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Slavia Mozyr
1.77
ML Vitebsk
1.77
Dinamo Minsk
1.68
FC Minsk
1.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.40
Neman
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Vitebsk
1.23
FC Gomel
1.17
Naftan
1.17
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.15
Baranovichi
1.12
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.90
Belshina
0.50
Arsenal (Belarus) is 0.70 goals worse than FC Minsk in terms of goals scored per game (0.90 vs 1.60).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Belshina
0.50
ML Vitebsk
0.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.87
Dinamo Minsk
0.90
Dinamo Brest
1.00
Torpedo Zhodino
1.00
Neman
1.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
FC Gomel
1.13
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.17
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.30
Baranovichi
1.34
Bate Borisov
1.43
FC Vitebsk
1.53
FC Minsk
1.57
Naftan
1.83
Arsenal (Belarus) is 0.40 goals better than FC Minsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.57).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Neman
63%
Dinamo Minsk
56%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
55%
Slavia Mozyr
50%
Bate Borisov
50%
Arsenal (Belarus)
44%
FC Minsk
37%
Arsenal (Belarus) is 7.0 percentage points better than FC Minsk in terms of average possession (44% vs 37%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Arsenal (Belarus)Arsenal (Belarus)

For 5.0 · Against 10.0 · Total 15.0

🚩 Corners

15051015H·DIN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.2

🟨 Cards

80122511212135233221213723385533A·NAFH·FC A·DINH·FC A·MOLH·FC A·NEMA·FC H·FC A·BAT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 14.0 · Total 29.0

⚠️ Fouls

290151429H·DIN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

FC MinskFC Minsk

For 2.0 · Against 0.0 · Total 2.0

🚩 Corners

2022A·NEM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.6

🟨 Cards

60331224142221222126361643043H·BATA·SLAH·NEMA·TORH·SMOH·DINA·ARSH·FC H·DINA·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 7.0

⚠️ Fouls

70437A·NEM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Arsenal (Belarus)Arsenal (Belarus)

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)15.015.0-3.43.43.429.029.0-
vs Stronger (15)15.015.0-3.13.42.829.029.0-
vs Similar (32)---3.63.23.9---
vs Weaker (3)---4.07.02.5---
% over line100%100%-38%39%37%100%100%-
% under line0%0%-62%61%63%0%0%-
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC MinskFC Minsk

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)2.0-2.02.72.82.67.0-7.0
vs Stronger (15)2.0-2.01.82.01.67.0-7.0
vs Similar (31)---3.13.42.8---
vs Weaker (4)---3.51.55.5---
% over line0%-0%30%35%26%0%-0%
% under line100%-100%70%65%74%100%-100%
This opponent (Arsenal (Belarus)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
15.0
Slavia Mozyr
13.0
Bate Borisov
12.0
Belshina
10.9
Dinamo Minsk
10.6
FC Isloch Minsk R.
8.0
Naftan
8.0
FC Dnepr Mogilev
7.5
Neman
7.3
FC Minsk
2.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Belshina
5.3
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.6
Slavia Mozyr
3.5
Bate Borisov
3.5
FC Vitebsk
3.2
Naftan
3.1
Dinamo Minsk
3.0
Neman
3.0
FC Minsk
3.0
FC Gomel
3.0
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.9
Dinamo Brest
2.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.7
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Slavia Mozyr
29.0
Arsenal (Belarus)
29.0
Bate Borisov
27.5
FC Dnepr Mogilev
25.0
Dinamo Minsk
25.0
Naftan
25.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
24.0
Neman
16.0
FC Minsk
7.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.7%
@ 2.12+6.3%
Under 9.5
50.3%
@ 1.62-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.59
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.2%
Under 3.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
62.6%
Under 21.5
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.1%1.22
Superbet
1.24
888Sport
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
-+0.1%✓ Hit
Over 1.573.1%1.34
888Sport
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
+4.1%✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (50)
€10m
DB (20)
€6m
TZ (20)
€3m
NEM (22)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (13)
€3m
DB (4)
€2m
NEM (7)
€1m
TZ (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (13)
€2m
TZ (8)
€2m
DB (4)
€1m
NEM (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (24)
€5m
DB (12)
€3m
TZ (9)
€1m
NEM (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Arsenal (Belarus) vs FC Minsk · H/A from A(
DateH/AGameScore
26/09/25HA( Vs FC Minsk1-1
10/05/25AFC Minsk Vs A(2-2
09/11/24HA( Vs FC Minsk0-0
22/06/24AFC Minsk Vs A(1-2
14/10/22HA( Vs FC Minsk0-0
26/05/22AFC Minsk Vs A(2-0

Arsenal (Belarus)Arsenal (Belarus)

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/07/26HA( Vs FC Vitebsk0-3
04/07/26ANeman Vs A(0-1
29/11/25ANaftan Vs A(2-0
22/11/25HA( Vs FC Slutsk2-1
08/11/25ADinamo Minsk Vs A(1-0
02/11/25HA( Vs FC Gomel0-0
26/10/25AMolodechno-DYuSSh 4 Vs A(0-1
17/10/25HA( Vs FC Isloch Minsk R.0-1
10/10/25ANeman Vs A(1-0
04/10/25AFC Vitebsk Vs A(1-0

FC MinskFC Minsk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/07/26AFC Dnepr Mogilev Vs FM1-2
30/11/25HFM Vs Bate Borisov2-0
23/11/25ASlavia Mozyr Vs FM2-3
08/11/25HFM Vs Neman1-4
02/11/25ATorpedo Zhodino Vs FM0-1
24/10/25HFM Vs Smorgon2-2
19/10/25AML Vitebsk Vs FM4-1
03/10/25HFM Vs Dinamo Brest1-0
26/09/25AArsenal (Belarus) Vs FM1-1
21/09/25HFM Vs FC Slutsk3-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Arsenal (Belarus)
Arsenal (Belarus)
Belarus: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL1.14
HomeDLDWL1.26
AwayLWLLW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%30%22%
AVG goals2.202.222.19
Over 1.5 %68%70%67%
Over 2.5 %40%43%37%
Over 3.5 %18%17%19%
Scored0.920.910.93
Conceded1.281.301.26
BTTS42%43%41%
Clean Sheet26%22%30%
Corners15.0015.00-
Cards3.743.763.72
FC Minsk
FC Minsk
Belarus: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.56
HomeWWDLW1.52
AwayDLWWW1.59
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%43%44%
AVG goals2.923.222.67
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %58%70%48%
Over 3.5 %34%43%26%
Scored1.441.611.30
Conceded1.481.611.37
BTTS62%70%56%
Clean Sheet24%17%30%
Corners2.00-2.00
Cards2.963.102.84

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC VitebskFC Vitebsk512
80%
2.4
61+5
1.4
20%
20%
0%
10.0
100%
3.0
0%
26.0
100%
0
0001.20.2
-
2Dinamo BrestDinamo Brest49
75%
2.2
103+7
3.2
75%
75%
50%
11.3
100%
2.7
33%
29.3
100%
6
2132.50.8
-
3FC Isloch Minsk R.FC Isloch Minsk R.39
100%
3.0
84+4
4.0
100%
67%
33%
11.0
50%
4.0
50%
28.5
100%
0
0002.71.3
55%
4FC MinskFC Minsk49
75%
2.2
64+2
2.5
75%
75%
0%
8.0
0%
1.0
0%
21.5
50%
0
0001.51.0
37%
5Slavia MozyrSlavia Mozyr36
67%
2.0
75+2
4.0
100%
100%
67%
8.5
50%
2.5
50%
21.0
50%
0
0002.31.7
50%
6BaranovichiBaranovichi45
25%
1.2
77+0
3.5
75%
50%
50%
9.5
50%
4.0
50%
25.0
100%
0
0001.81.8
-
7FC GomelFC Gomel44
25%
1.0
73+4
2.5
50%
25%
25%
7.0
0%
2.0
0%
29.0
100%
0
0001.80.8
-
8Bate BorisovBate Borisov24
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
10.0
100%
3.0
0%
24.0
100%
0
0001.51.0
50%
9NemanNeman44
25%
1.0
34-1
1.8
50%
25%
0%
10.0
100%
3.0
0%
26.0
100%
3
1110.81.0
63%
10NaftanNaftan34
33%
1.3
69-3
5.0
100%
100%
67%
11.0
50%
2.0
0%
22.0
50%
0
0002.03.0
-
11Arsenal (Belarus)Arsenal (Belarus)53
20%
0.6
311-8
2.8
80%
80%
20%
9.7
33%
0.3
0%
18.3
33%
0
0000.62.2
44%
12BelshinaBelshina32
0%
0.7
26-4
2.7
100%
33%
33%
11.0
100%
1.5
0%
24.0
100%
0
0000.72.0
-
13FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev52
0%
0.4
510-5
3.0
80%
60%
20%
10.3
67%
3.3
33%
23.0
67%
0
0001.02.0
-
14Dinamo MinskDinamo Minsk00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3250.00.0
56%
15ML VitebskML Vitebsk00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
16Torpedo ZhodinoTorpedo Zhodino30
0%
0.0
04-4
1.3
33%
0%
0%
11.0
100%
4.0
100%
33.0
100%
3
0210.01.3
-
Belarus: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →

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