Arsenal Tivat vs Buducnost Podgorica Result & Analysis

Arsenal Tivat’s defensive record at home is worrying, conceding an average of three goals while scoring just one against stronger opposition. Buducnost Podgorica, on the road, has kept a clean sheet in every match so far, scoring 1.5 goals per game against weaker opponents. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 38% chance of victory, a 33% chance of a draw, and a 29% chance of a home win. The expected total goals is 2.1, with the most likely total being two goals (28%). The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 14.8% probability. In addition to the match result, the model’s selection for the game is “Under 3.5” with an 84.3% probability. The recent form of Arsenal Tivat shows a string of losses and a 1-2 defeat to Otrant-Olympic, while Buducnost Podgorica has a mixed run ending in a 0-0 draw against Bokelj. These defensive and recent-form factors support the prediction of a tight, low-scoring encounter ending 1-1.

The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, the away win, failed to materialise, leaving the game a 1-1 draw. Arsenal Tivat, fresh from a defeat, struggled to break through while Buducnost Podgorica, coming off a draw, managed to hold their own. The model had selected an away win with a 38% probability, but the outcome proved wrong. The only other selection, Under 3.5 goals, hit its mark with an 84.3% chance. The match finished 1-1, a result that matched the model’s predicted most likely score of 1-1, yet the favourite’s call was incorrect.