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Arsenal Tivat vs Buducnost Podgorica Result & Analysis

Date: 25/02/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 1-0
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Vs
29%
32%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arsenal Tivat win✓ Hit
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica win✗ Miss
39.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L24L32W02L00D02L24L00D00D21WH·MOR08/10A·BUD18/10H·PET29/10A·JEZ02/11H·SUT09/11A·BOK22/11A·DEČ30/11H·MLA06/12H·JED10/12A·MOR21/02
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.331.200.600.672.07
vs Stronger (6)0.672.000.670.330.673.67
vs Similar (22)0.911.271.090.730.731.82
vs Weaker (2)2.000.004.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W42W01L10W20W01L12L01L01L21WA·SUT05/10H·ARS18/10H·MLA02/11A·JED09/11H·MOR22/11H·BOK29/11A·PET06/12A·JEZ10/12A·DEČ14/12H·SUT21/02
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.931.330.931.270.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.130.801.330.560.831.17
vs Weaker (15)1.471.071.331.501.560.78
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%022%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.0%
Under 1.5
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.8%
Under 2.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.1%
Under 3.5
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.6%
No
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
12.4%
0-1
12.0%
1-0 ✓
9.7%
0-2
8.0%
1-2
8.0%
2-1
6.6%
2-0
5.5%
Arsenal Tivat goals ↓
Buducnost Podgorica goals →
01234
012%12%8.0%3.2%1.0%
19.7%15%8.0%3.2%1.0%
25.5%6.6%4.0%1.6%0.5%
31.8%2.2%1.3%0.5%0.2%
40.5%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arsenal Tivat goals (down), columns = Buducnost Podgorica goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sutjeska
2.00
Mornar
1.92
Petrovac
1.42
Dečić
1.42
Buducnost Podgorica
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Mladost DG
1.28
Jezero
1.24
Bokelj
1.05
Jedinstvo
0.97
Grbalj
0.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.00
Arsenal Tivat is 0.06 points worse than Buducnost Podgorica in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
1.69
Mornar
1.42
Mladost DG
1.36
Petrovac
1.22
Jezero
1.21
Dečić
1.19
Bokelj
1.05
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
1.00
Jedinstvo
0.83
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.50
Grbalj
0.00
Arsenal Tivat and Buducnost Podgorica are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Mornar
0.81
Buducnost Podgorica
0.97
Grbalj
1.00
Petrovac
1.00
Sutjeska
1.00
Dečić
1.25
Bokelj
1.26
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Jezero
1.29
Jedinstvo
1.36
Mladost DG
1.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
4.00
Arsenal Tivat is 0.31 goals worse than Buducnost Podgorica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 0.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D21W01L00D02L12L00D00D11DH·MOR08/10A·BUD18/10H·PET29/10A·JEZ02/11H·SUT09/11A·BOK22/11A·DEČ30/11H·MLA06/12H·JED10/12A·MOR21/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.500.730.270.400.73
vs Stronger (6)0.170.500.000.330.330.67
vs Similar (22)0.590.550.730.270.450.82
vs Weaker (2)1.500.003.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D00D00D10W00D12L00D00D10WA·SUT05/10H·ARS18/10H·MLA02/11A·JED09/11H·MOR22/11H·BOK29/11A·PET06/12A·JEZ10/12A·DEČ14/12H·SUT21/02
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.300.530.330.470.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.430.290.500.250.330.33
vs Weaker (16)0.560.310.570.430.560.22
Clean sheet %80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L13L11D01L00D00D12L00D00D10WH·MOR08/10A·BUD18/10H·PET29/10A·JEZ02/11H·SUT09/11A·BOK22/11A·DEČ30/11H·MLA06/12H·JED10/12A·MOR21/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.830.470.330.271.33
vs Stronger (6)0.501.500.670.000.333.00
vs Similar (22)0.320.730.360.450.271.00
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W31W01L10W10W01L00D01L01L11DA·SUT05/10H·ARS18/10H·MLA02/11A·JED09/11H·MOR22/11H·BOK29/11A·PET06/12A·JEZ10/12A·DEČ14/12H·SUT21/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.631.130.600.800.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.790.571.000.380.500.83
vs Weaker (16)1.120.691.290.861.000.56
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
GRB (2)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat's squad is €2m less valuable than Buducnost Podgorica's (€1m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
Arsenal Tivat's defence is €1m less valuable than Buducnost Podgorica's (€0m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
AT wins
0
Draws
7
BP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Arsenal Tivat vs Buducnost Podgorica · H/A from AT
DateH/AGameScore
18/10/25ABuducnost Podgorica Vs AT4-2
18/08/25HAT Vs Buducnost Podgorica1-0
20/04/25ABuducnost Podgorica Vs AT5-0
26/02/25HAT Vs Buducnost Podgorica1-5
19/10/24ABuducnost Podgorica Vs AT2-1
17/08/24HAT Vs Buducnost Podgorica0-2
04/05/24HAT Vs Buducnost Podgorica0-4
10/03/24ABuducnost Podgorica Vs AT6-0

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/02/26AMornar Vs AT1-2
10/12/25HAT Vs Jedinstvo0-0
06/12/25HAT Vs Mladost DG0-0
30/11/25ADečić Vs AT4-2
22/11/25ABokelj Vs AT2-0
09/11/25HAT Vs Sutjeska0-0
02/11/25AJezero Vs AT2-0
29/10/25HAT Vs Petrovac3-2
18/10/25ABuducnost Podgorica Vs AT4-2
08/10/25HAT Vs Mornar0-1

Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/02/26HBP Vs Sutjeska2-1
14/12/25ADečić Vs BP1-0
10/12/25AJezero Vs BP1-0
06/12/25APetrovac Vs BP2-1
29/11/25HBP Vs Bokelj0-1
22/11/25HBP Vs Mornar2-0
09/11/25AJedinstvo Vs BP0-1
02/11/25HBP Vs Mladost DG0-1
18/10/25HBP Vs Arsenal Tivat4-2
05/10/25ASutjeska Vs BP0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDDW1.14
HomeLWDDD1.54
AwayLLLLW0.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%38%15%
AVG goals2.162.002.31
Over 1.5 %62%54%69%
Over 2.5 %34%33%35%
Over 3.5 %22%21%23%
Scored0.921.170.69
Conceded1.240.831.62
BTTS38%42%35%
Clean Sheet38%46%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.78
HomeWLWLW1.84
AwayWWLLL1.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%52%52%
AVG goals2.902.882.92
Over 1.5 %76%76%76%
Over 2.5 %52%48%56%
Over 3.5 %34%36%32%
Scored1.901.961.84
Conceded1.000.921.08
BTTS56%56%56%
Clean Sheet28%28%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SutjeskaSutjeska3672
61%
2.0
6136+25
2.7
72%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.71.0
-
2MornarMornar3669
56%
1.9
5129+22
2.2
69%
50%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.40.8
-
3PetrovacPetrovac3651
36%
1.4
4436+8
2.2
67%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.0
-
4DečićDečić3651
39%
1.4
4345-2
2.4
64%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.2
-
5Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3648
36%
1.3
3635+1
2.0
61%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.01.0
-
6JezeroJezero3847
32%
1.2
4649-3
2.5
79%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.3
-
7Mladost DGMladost DG3646
39%
1.3
4954-5
2.9
64%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.5
-
8Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3646
33%
1.3
3646-10
2.3
64%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.3
-
9BokeljBokelj3840
24%
1.1
4048-8
2.3
68%
39%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.3
-
10JedinstvoJedinstvo3635
25%
1.0
3049-19
2.2
58%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.4
-
11GrbaljGrbalj21
0%
0.5
02-2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
12Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)20
0%
0.0
18-7
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.54.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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