Arsenal Tivat vs Dečić Result & Analysis

Arsenal Tivat’s defensive record at home - conceding only 0.83 goals per game - sets the tone for a tight contest, yet their recent string of losses suggests caution. Dečić, meanwhile, has been a more porous side on the road, allowing 1.42 goals per match against similar opposition. The model favours a home win, with a 37% chance, followed by a 35% draw and a 28% away win. The expected total is 1.8 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 17.4% probability. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 88.7% and Under 2.5 goals at 72.3%. Arsenal Tivat’s average home scoring of 1.08 and conceding 0.83, versus Dečić’s away scoring of 0.75 and conceding 1.42, underline the low-scoring nature of the fixture. The model’s selections reflect a defensive battle where the home side is slightly favoured.

The upset came early as Arsenal Tivat failed to convert their home advantage, falling 0-1 to Dečić. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 37% probability, but the model was wrong. The match finished with an away win, a 28% chance according to the model. The model’s other selections proved accurate: Under 3.5, with an 88.7% probability, hit; Under 2.5, at 72.3% probability, also hit. Arsenal Tivat had come off a defeat and a run of losses, while Dečić rode a four-game winning streak. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the model’s predictions for total goals and the outcome of the under-goals selections.