This opponent (Rodina Moskva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rodina Moskva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.00
1.47
1.07
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.31
0.81
2.00
1.25
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
1.21
0.86
0.86
1.29
1.57
Clean sheet %
33% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (31%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
46.5%
Under 1.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.9%
Under 2.5
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
6.9%
Under 3.5
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
29.7%
No
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
22.9%
1-0
16.3%
0-1 ✓
14.3%
1-1
13.9%
2-0
7.1%
0-2
5.6%
2-1
5.1%
1-2
4.5%
Arsenal Tula goals ↓
Rodina Moskva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
23%
14%
5.6%
1.3%
0.2%
1
16%
14%
4.5%
1.1%
0.2%
2
7.1%
5.1%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
3
1.9%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
4
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arsenal Tula goals (down), columns = Rodina Moskva goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Baltika
2.03
Torpedo Moskva
1.91
Chernomorets
1.88
Ural
1.74
FC Sochi
1.68
Ska-khabarovsk
1.56
Rodina Moskva
1.47
Enisey
1.44
Rotor Volgograd
1.38
Arsenal Tula
1.21
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Chayka
1.12
KAMAZ
1.12
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.03
FC UFA
1.03
FK Sokol Saratov
0.94
Tyumen
0.79
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.79
Arsenal Tula is 0.26 points worse than Rodina Moskva in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Sochi
1.62
Torpedo Moskva
1.50
Chernomorets
1.50
Ural
1.47
Baltika
1.47
Ska-khabarovsk
1.29
Rodina Moskva
1.21
Enisey
1.06
Rotor Volgograd
0.94
FC UFA
0.94
FK Neftekhimik
0.91
Chayka
0.91
KAMAZ
0.91
Tyumen
0.88
Arsenal Tula
0.74
FK Sokol Saratov
0.74
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.71
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.71
Arsenal Tula is 0.47 goals worse than Rodina Moskva in terms of goals scored per game (0.74 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Baltika
0.53
Torpedo Moskva
0.74
Rotor Volgograd
0.76
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Rodina Moskva
0.91
Chernomorets
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
KAMAZ
1.03
FK Neftekhimik
1.09
Ural
1.12
Enisey
1.15
Ska-khabarovsk
1.21
FK Sokol Saratov
1.21
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.24
Chayka
1.26
FC UFA
1.41
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.47
Tyumen
1.50
Arsenal Tula is 0.03 goals better than Rodina Moskva in terms of goals conceded per game (0.88 vs 0.91).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
51%
Enisey
49%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arsenal Tula
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 2.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Rodina Moskva
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.2 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Arsenal Tula
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.5
11.0
14.0
2.5
2.4
2.7
23.5
25.0
22.0
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
2.0
-
2.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (48)
12.5
11.0
14.0
2.5
2.4
2.7
23.5
25.0
22.0
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
3.0
-
3.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
100%
30%
29%
31%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
0%
0%
0%
70%
71%
69%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Rodina Moskva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rodina Moskva
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
10.3
8.0
2.8
2.5
3.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
8.0
-
8.0
2.5
1.9
3.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (25)
10.3
10.3
-
3.0
3.0
3.0
-
-
-
% over line
40%
67%
0%
34%
31%
38%
-
-
-
% under line
60%
33%
100%
66%
69%
62%
-
-
-
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Arsenal Tula
12.5
Shinnik Yaroslavl
11.5
Ural
11.1
Baltika
10.3
Chernomorets
10.2
Rodina Moskva
9.8
FC Sochi
9.4
KAMAZ
9.4
FK Sokol Saratov
9.3
FK Neftekhimik
9.1
Enisey
8.8
FC UFA
8.7
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.1
Tyumen
7.8
Torpedo Moskva
6.5
Ska-khabarovsk
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
KAMAZ
4.7
FC UFA
4.4
Ural
4.2
FC Sochi
4.0
Chayka
4.0
Chernomorets
3.8
Enisey
3.8
Rodina Moskva
3.7
Torpedo Moskva
3.6
Baltika
3.5
Tyumen
3.4
Rotor Volgograd
3.3
Ska-khabarovsk
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.2
Arsenal Tula
3.2
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.1
FK Sokol Saratov
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ural
24.5
Arsenal Tula
23.5
FC Sochi
23.1
Baltika
22.0
Enisey
14.0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
42.4%
Under 9.5
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.8%
Under 3.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
3.1%
Under 21.5
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arsenal Tula
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.37
0.46
0.23
0.35
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.41
0.38
0.46
0.23
0.38
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodina Moskva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rodina Moskva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.53
0.67
0.53
0.20
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.44
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.38
vs Weaker (14)
0.36
0.64
0.57
0.57
0.14
0.71
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arsenal Tula over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodina Moskva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodina Moskva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodina Moskva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arsenal Tula
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.31
0.38
0.35
0.76
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.34
0.62
0.31
0.38
0.38
0.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodina Moskva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rodina Moskva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.80
0.53
0.73
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.38
1.25
0.75
0.38
0.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.71
0.57
0.29
0.29
1.14
0.86
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arsenal Tula over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodina Moskva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodina Moskva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodina Moskva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 21.5 fouls
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 19.5 fouls
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS No
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rodina Moskva · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Iker Pozo33%
Artur Gharibyan20%
Artem Maksimenko17%
Leon Musaev0%
Yordy Reyna0%
Artem Sokol0%
Leo Goglichidze0%
Soltmurad Bakaev0%
Andrey Egorychev0%
Artem Meshchaninov0%
Dmitriy Tananeev0%
Mitja Križan0%
Ruslan Fishchenko0%
Ivan Timoshenko0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Kirill Ushatov0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Stanislav Bessmertniy0%
Ilya Dyatlov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ilya Dyatlov50%
Andrey Egorychev33%
Dmitriy Tananeev33%
Iker Pozo33%
Ruslan Fishchenko20%
Yordy Reyna17%
Artem Meshchaninov17%
Ivan Timoshenko17%
Stanislav Bessmertniy17%
Leon Musaev0%
Artem Sokol0%
Leo Goglichidze0%
Soltmurad Bakaev0%
Mitja Križan0%
Artem Maksimenko0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Kirill Ushatov0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Artur Gharibyan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Artur Gharibyan20%
Soltmurad Bakaev17%
Artem Maksimenko17%
Iker Pozo17%
Stanislav Bessmertniy17%
Leon Musaev0%
Yordy Reyna0%
Artem Sokol0%
Leo Goglichidze0%
Andrey Egorychev0%
Artem Meshchaninov0%
Dmitriy Tananeev0%
Mitja Križan0%
Ruslan Fishchenko0%
Ivan Timoshenko0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Kirill Ushatov0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Ilya Dyatlov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Soltmurad Bakaev17%
Artem Maksimenko17%
Leon Musaev0%
Yordy Reyna0%
Artem Sokol0%
Leo Goglichidze0%
Andrey Egorychev0%
Artem Meshchaninov0%
Dmitriy Tananeev0%
Mitja Križan0%
Iker Pozo0%
Ruslan Fishchenko0%
Ivan Timoshenko0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Kirill Ushatov0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
Stanislav Bessmertniy0%
Ilya Dyatlov0%
Artur Gharibyan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (31)
€30m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Arsenal Tula's squad is €8m less valuable than Rodina Moskva's (€8m vs €17m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (10)
€10m
RM (11)
€7m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
Arsenal Tula's attack is €4m less valuable than Rodina Moskva's (€3m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (6)
€6m
RM (4)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Arsenal Tula's midfield is €1m less valuable than Rodina Moskva's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (15)
€15m
FS (11)
€9m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
AT (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
Arsenal Tula's defence is €4m less valuable than Rodina Moskva's (€3m vs €7m).
Russia: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Baltika
Torpedo Moskva
Chernomorets
Ural
FC Sochi
Ska-khabarovsk
Enisey
Rotor Volgograd
KAMAZ
FK Neftekhimik
Chayka
FC UFA
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FK Sokol Saratov
Tyumen
Alaniya Vladikavkaz