This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
0.75
0.81
0.79
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.76
0.76
0.73
0.67
0.79
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
52.9%
Under 1.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
25.2%
Under 2.5
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
9.8%
Under 3.5
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
31.2%
No
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
19.3%
0-0
18.8%
1-1 ✓
12.9%
2-0
11.9%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
6.8%
3-0
4.6%
1-2
3.4%
Arsenal Tula goals ↓
Shinnik Yaroslavl goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
19%
9.0%
2.9%
0.6%
0.1%
1
19%
13%
3.4%
0.7%
0.1%
2
12%
6.8%
2.0%
0.4%
0.1%
3
4.6%
2.6%
0.8%
0.1%
0.0%
4
1.3%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arsenal Tula goals (down), columns = Shinnik Yaroslavl goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Baltika
2.03
Torpedo Moskva
1.91
Chernomorets
1.88
Ural
1.74
FC Sochi
1.68
Ska-khabarovsk
1.56
Rodina Moskva
1.47
Enisey
1.44
Rotor Volgograd
1.38
Arsenal Tula
1.21
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Chayka
1.12
KAMAZ
1.12
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.03
FC UFA
1.03
FK Sokol Saratov
0.94
Tyumen
0.79
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.79
Arsenal Tula is 0.18 points better than Shinnik Yaroslavl in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Sochi
1.62
Torpedo Moskva
1.50
Chernomorets
1.50
Ural
1.47
Baltika
1.47
Ska-khabarovsk
1.29
Rodina Moskva
1.21
Enisey
1.06
Rotor Volgograd
0.94
FC UFA
0.94
FK Neftekhimik
0.91
Chayka
0.91
KAMAZ
0.91
Tyumen
0.88
Arsenal Tula
0.74
FK Sokol Saratov
0.74
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.71
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.71
Arsenal Tula is 0.03 goals better than Shinnik Yaroslavl in terms of goals scored per game (0.74 vs 0.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Baltika
0.53
Torpedo Moskva
0.74
Rotor Volgograd
0.76
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Rodina Moskva
0.91
Chernomorets
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
KAMAZ
1.03
FK Neftekhimik
1.09
Ural
1.12
Enisey
1.15
Ska-khabarovsk
1.21
FK Sokol Saratov
1.21
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.24
Chayka
1.26
FC UFA
1.41
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.47
Tyumen
1.50
Arsenal Tula is 0.35 goals better than Shinnik Yaroslavl in terms of goals conceded per game (0.88 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
51%
Enisey
49%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arsenal Tula
For 5.0 · Against 7.5 · Total 12.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 12.5 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shinnik Yaroslavl
For 7.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 13.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 0.9 · Total 2.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Arsenal Tula
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.5
11.0
14.0
1.9
1.6
2.3
23.5
25.0
22.0
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
2.0
-
2.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
12.5
11.0
14.0
1.9
1.5
2.3
23.5
25.0
22.0
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
3.5
4.0
3.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
100%
18%
12%
24%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
0%
0%
0%
82%
88%
76%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.7
10.5
12.8
2.0
2.0
2.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
3.0
3.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (49)
11.7
10.5
12.8
2.0
1.9
2.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
76%
62%
89%
18%
19%
17%
-
-
-
% under line
24%
38%
11%
82%
81%
83%
-
-
-
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Shinnik Yaroslavl
11.3
Arsenal Tula
10.7
Ural
10.5
Baltika
10.2
FK Neftekhimik
10.0
Chernomorets
9.9
Enisey
9.6
FC Sochi
9.3
FK Sokol Saratov
9.1
KAMAZ
8.8
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.8
Rodina Moskva
8.8
FC UFA
8.7
Ska-khabarovsk
8.4
Tyumen
8.3
Torpedo Moskva
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
KAMAZ
5.3
FC UFA
5.0
Rodina Moskva
4.4
Torpedo Moskva
4.1
Enisey
4.0
Ural
3.9
FK Neftekhimik
3.7
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.6
Baltika
3.6
FC Sochi
3.6
Tyumen
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.5
Chernomorets
3.5
Chayka
3.4
Arsenal Tula
3.2
Rotor Volgograd
3.1
FK Sokol Saratov
2.9
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rodina Moskva
30.5
Enisey
28.5
Arsenal Tula
23.5
Torpedo Moskva
23.1
Ural
22.9
Baltika
22.3
FC Sochi
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.5%
Under 9.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.2%
Under 3.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arsenal Tula
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.37
0.31
0.25
0.57
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.45
0.38
0.31
0.25
0.62
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.43
0.38
0.44
0.29
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.34
0.34
0.40
0.27
0.29
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arsenal Tula over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arsenal Tula
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.37
0.56
0.25
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.52
0.38
0.56
0.25
0.46
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.40
0.38
0.38
0.50
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.41
0.41
0.33
0.40
0.50
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arsenal Tula over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (31)
€30m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Arsenal Tula's squad is €2m more valuable than Shinnik Yaroslavl's (€8m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (10)
€10m
RM (11)
€7m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
Arsenal Tula's attack is €1m more valuable than Shinnik Yaroslavl's (€3m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (6)
€6m
RM (4)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Arsenal Tula and Shinnik Yaroslavl have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (15)
€15m
FS (11)
€9m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
AT (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
Arsenal Tula and Shinnik Yaroslavl have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Russia: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Baltika
Torpedo Moskva
Chernomorets
Ural
FC Sochi
Ska-khabarovsk
Rodina Moskva
Enisey
Rotor Volgograd
KAMAZ
FK Neftekhimik
Chayka
FC UFA
FK Sokol Saratov
Tyumen
Alaniya Vladikavkaz