Arsenal Tula and Spartak Kostroma face a finely balanced encounter, with the model favouring an away win. The expected total of goals sits at 2.6, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.7% chance. Arsenal, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, averages 1.07 goals scored and 1.21 conceded, while Spartak, on the road, averages 1.27 scored and 1.82 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 35% home win, 29% draw, and 37% away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.4%, Under 6.5 at 98.2%, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.4%, Under 5.5 at 94.9%, Over 19.5 fouls at 92.8%, Under 4.5 at 87.4%, and Home under 2.5 goals at 85.8%. Arsenal’s recent draw and Spartak’s recent defeat add further intrigue to this tightly contested fixture.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arsenal Tula win
34.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma win
36.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Arsenal Tula
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.37
1.00
1.19
1.07
1.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.07
1.39
1.07
1.21
1.07
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Kostroma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Kostroma
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.23
1.20
1.00
1.00
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.32
1.41
1.36
1.00
1.27
1.82
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.9%
Under 2.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.0%
Under 3.5
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.7%
No
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-0
8.5%
0-1
8.4%
1-2
8.3%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
8.1%
0-2
6.4%
2-0
6.0%
Arsenal Tula goals ↓
Spartak Kostroma goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
8.4%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
1
8.1%
14%
8.3%
3.7%
1.2%
2
6.0%
8.1%
5.4%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.6%
3.5%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arsenal Tula goals (down), columns = Spartak Kostroma goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Sochi
2.57
Nizhny Novgorod
2.29
Veles
2.14
Ural
2.00
FC UFA
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.67
Spartak Kostroma
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Enisey
1.17
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Arsenal Tula
1.12
Leningradets
1.00
Tekstilshchik
0.71
KAMAZ
0.71
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Ska-khabarovsk
0.43
Arsenal Tula is 0.38 points worse than Spartak Kostroma in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nizhny Novgorod
3.00
FC Sochi
2.29
Ural
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.83
Veles
1.57
Enisey
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.33
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
FC UFA
1.17
Chelyabinsk
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Ska-khabarovsk
0.71
Leningradets
0.67
FK Neftekhimik
0.62
Tekstilshchik
0.29
Arsenal Tula is 0.29 goals worse than Spartak Kostroma in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ural
0.50
Torpedo Moskva
0.67
Leningradets
0.83
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.17
Enisey
1.33
Nizhny Novgorod
1.43
Veles
1.43
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
KAMAZ
1.57
Arsenal Tula
1.62
Ska-khabarovsk
2.00
Chelyabinsk
2.17
Arsenal Tula is 0.46 goals worse than Spartak Kostroma in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sochi
54%
FK Neftekhimik
54%
Veles
54%
Volga Ulyanovsk
52%
Arsenal Tula
52%
Leningradets
50%
Nizhny Novgorod
50%
Chelyabinsk
50%
Tekstilshchik
49%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Ska-khabarovsk
46%
FC UFA
46%
KAMAZ
46%
Ural
40%
Arsenal Tula is 3.0 percentage points better than Spartak Kostroma in terms of average possession (52% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arsenal Tula
For 4.3 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Spartak Kostroma
For 5.0 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Arsenal Tula
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.5
11.0
2.2
2.1
2.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
1.5
1.5
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (48)
9.3
8.5
11.0
2.2
2.2
2.2
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
67%
50%
100%
24%
25%
23%
-
-
-
% under line
33%
50%
0%
76%
75%
77%
-
-
-
This opponent (Spartak Kostroma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Kostroma
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
-
10.5
1.9
2.0
1.7
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (38)
9.0
-
9.0
1.6
1.6
1.6
-
-
-
vs Weaker (12)
12.0
-
12.0
2.6
3.4
2.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
-
50%
26%
26%
26%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
-
50%
74%
74%
74%
-
-
-
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
KAMAZ
15.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
Arsenal Tula
9.3
FC Sochi
9.2
Tekstilshchik
9.0
Leningradets
8.9
Veles
8.8
FK Neftekhimik
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Ural
8.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tekstilshchik
5.5
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
FC Sochi
4.4
Veles
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
FC Sochi
27.1
FK Neftekhimik
27.0
FC UFA
27.0
Ural
26.8
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
43.1%
Under 9.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.9%
Under 3.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.1%
Under 21.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Arsenal Tula or Draw
63.4%
Avg Implied -
35%
29%
37%
covers Arsenal Tula + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula or Spartak Kostroma
71.3%
Avg Implied -
35%
29%
37%
covers Arsenal Tula + Spartak Kostroma
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Spartak Kostroma
65.3%
Avg Implied -
35%
29%
37%
covers Draw + Spartak Kostroma
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Arsenal Tula over/under 0.5
Over
72.6%
Under
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 1.5
Over
37.1%
Under
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 2.5
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 3.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 0.5
Over
73.7%
Under
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 1.5
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 2.5
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Arsenal Tula, so a minus line means Arsenal Tula give that many goals of a start and Spartak Kostroma receive them. At -1, Arsenal Tula must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Arsenal Tula win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Arsenal Tula)
Arsenal Tula -2
5.5%
Draw -2
10.4%
Spartak Kostroma +2
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Arsenal Tula)
Arsenal Tula -1
15.9%
Draw -1
18.9%
Spartak Kostroma +1
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Arsenal Tula)
Arsenal Tula +1
63.4%
Draw +1
19.5%
Spartak Kostroma -1
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Arsenal Tula)
Arsenal Tula +2
82.9%
Draw +2
11.0%
Spartak Kostroma -2
6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arsenal Tula
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.50
0.75
0.43
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.46
0.75
0.50
0.71
0.43
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Kostroma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Kostroma
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.68
0.55
0.64
0.36
0.73
vs Weaker (8)
0.12
0.62
0.00
0.75
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arsenal Tula over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arsenal Tula
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.50
0.44
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.64
0.57
0.50
0.64
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Kostroma) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Kostroma
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.80
0.33
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.73
0.82
0.36
0.91
1.09
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.12
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arsenal Tula over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Kostroma over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (28)
€18m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Arsenal Tula and Spartak Kostroma have a similar squad value (both €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Arsenal Tula and Spartak Kostroma have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Arsenal Tula and Spartak Kostroma have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (11)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Arsenal Tula's defence is €1m less valuable than Spartak Kostroma's (€3m vs €4m).
Russia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →