Torpedo Moskva's recent form has been a storyline, coming off two straight defeats, but they've shown resilience in their away form, scoring an average of 0.83 goals and conceding 1.17 against similar opponents. Meanwhile, Arsenal Tula has been inconsistent at home, scoring 1.08 goals and conceding 1.33 against similar opponents. The model predicts a 38% chance of an away win, which is the most likely result, and a total of 2.1 expected goals.
The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 14.7%. The model's selection, away win, is the favourite. The home side has a 29% chance of winning, a 33% chance of drawing, and a 38% chance of losing.
The model's suggested picks include Under 9.5 corners (100% probability and a 44% edge), Under 21.5 fouls (100% probability), and Under 3.5 goals (84.2% probability and a 7% edge).
In a major upset, Arsenal Tula secured a 1-0 win over Torpedo Moskva, extending their recent run of mixed results. The home side's recent form note suggests they're coming off a draw, but it was Torpedo Moskva who had the advantage going into this match, with a 38% chance of winning. The model's selection was the away win, but unfortunately, it was incorrect. The model's call was wrong. The suggested picks included Under 3.5 goals, which hit, with a probability of 84.2%. The most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 28%. The most likely scores were 1-1, 0-0, and 0-1, each with a probability of 14.7%, 13.8%, and 12.8% respectively.
Arsenal Tula| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.33 | 0.93 | 1.20 | 1.27 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.14 | 1.36 | 1.00 | 1.23 | 1.27 | 1.47 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-14pp vs league) | |||||
Torpedo Moskva| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 1.07 | 1.59 | 1.18 | 1.08 | 0.92 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.36 | 1.08 | 1.53 | 1.13 | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.40 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Torpedo Moskva goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 14% | 13% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 10% | 15% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Arsenal Tula
Torpedo Moskva
Arsenal Tula| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (3) | - | - | - | 1.7 | 1.7 | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (47) | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 100% | 100% | 100% | 36% | 38% | 33% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 0% | 0% | 0% | 64% | 62% | 67% | - | - | - |
Torpedo Moskva| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.5 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 32.0 | - | 32.0 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (43) | 8.5 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 32.0 | - | 32.0 |
| vs Weaker (7) | - | - | - | 2.4 | 3.3 | 1.8 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 50% | 100% | 0% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 100% | - | 100% |
| % under line | 50% | 0% | 100% | 62% | 62% | 62% | 0% | - | 0% |
Arsenal Tula| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.80 | 0.53 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.50 | 0.79 | 0.46 | 0.77 | 0.53 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Torpedo Moskva| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.71 | 0.41 | 0.38 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.73 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
Arsenal Tula| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.64 | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.46 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Torpedo Moskva| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.53 | 0.88 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.23 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.76 | 0.52 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.00 | 0.60 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 84.2% | 1.19 | 1.22 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.17 | - | +7.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 80.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 76.2% | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.17 | - | - | - | -0.7% | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 74.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 11/10/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 30/03/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 09/09/24 | A | 2-2 | |
| 20/04/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 28/08/23 | H | 1-1 |
Arsenal Tula| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 19/07/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 11/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 1-2 |
Torpedo Moskva| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 11/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 27/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 30/03/26 | H | 4-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 2 | FC Sochi | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 3.3 | 83% | 83% | 33% | 10.5 | 100% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 29 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 3 | Veles | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 3.0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 54% |
| 4 | Ural | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 2.0 | 80% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 5 | Rotor Volgograd | 7 | 10 | 43% | 1.4 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 2.4 | 71% | 43% | 14% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | FK Neftekhimik | 7 | 9 | 43% | 1.3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 2.3 | 57% | 29% | 14% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 7 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 8 | FC UFA | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 10.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 9 | Arsenal Tula | 7 | 8 | 29% | 1.1 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 2.3 | 57% | 43% | 29% | 11.0 | 100% | 6.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 44% |
| 10 | Torpedo Moskva | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 2.6 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 11 | Enisey | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Leningradets | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 1.6 | 60% | 40% | 0% | 10.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 47% |
| 13 | Spartak Kostroma | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 2.6 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 14 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 52% |
| 15 | Tekstilshchik | 6 | 5 | 17% | 0.8 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1.3 | 33% | 17% | 17% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 16 | Chelyabinsk | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3.2 | 100% | 60% | 40% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 50% |
| 17 | Ska-khabarovsk | 6 | 3 | 17% | 0.5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.8 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 6.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 46% |
| 18 | KAMAZ | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 2.8 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |