Ural are tipped to win the match against Arsenal Tula, with a 44 % chance of victory, a 31 % chance of a draw and a 25 % chance of a home win. The average number of goals expected is 2.3, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.2 % probability. Arsenal Tula, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.15 conceded. Ural, on the road against a similar opponent, averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.46 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.2 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.5 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.9 %), Under 5.5 (97.2 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.4 %) and Away under 3.5 goals (95.5 %). Arsenal Tula have recently come off a 0-2 loss to Veles, while Ural remain unbeaten in their last five matches, beating Tekstilshchik 2-0.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Ural, failed to deliver, as the match finished 2-2, a draw that surprised the model’s 44% away-win pick. Arsenal Tula, coming off a draw, and Ural, unbeaten in five, both kept the scoreline level. The model’s call was therefore incorrect. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.8%, Under 6.5 hit at 99.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.1%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 98.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.3%, Under 5.5 hit at 97.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.6%, and Away under 3.5 goals hit at 95.5%. All probabilities were expressed as percentages, and the final score remained unchanged.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arsenal Tula win✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.30
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.54
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.40
Dafabet
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Draw✓ Hit
30.6%
Avg Implied 29.7% · @ 3.11
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.19
Dafabet
3.15
Superbet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
Ural win✗ Miss
44.2%
Avg Implied 42.3% · @ 2.18
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.23
Dafabet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Arsenal Tula
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.37
0.93
1.13
1.13
1.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.07
1.39
1.00
1.15
1.13
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ural) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ural
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.87
1.69
0.54
1.06
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.14
1.24
1.25
0.88
1.08
1.46
vs Weaker (9)
1.78
0.00
2.40
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.2%
@ 1.36-0.2%
Under 1.5
32.8%
@ 2.81+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.38
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Under
Pinnacle
3.00
Superbet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.74
1xBet
2.74
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.2%
@ 2.22-3.2%
Under 2.5
60.8%
@ 1.64+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.27
1xBet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.21
Superbet
2.15
Under
1xBet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
Superbet
1.61
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.2%
@ 3.90-4.2%
Under 3.5
80.8%
@ 1.20+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.16
Marathonbet
3.88
1xBet
3.88
Superbet
3.70
Under
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.9%
@ 1.89-2.9%
No
54.1%
@ 1.80+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
No
1xBet
1.81
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 5.59+6.6%
0-1
12.5%@ 6.29+5.7%
0-0
11.8%@ 7.44+6.0%
0-2
9.1%@ 9.45+4.6%
1-2
8.5%@ 8.66+3.6%
1-0
8.5%@ 8.21+3.3%
2-1
6.1%@ 11.53+2.3%
2-0
4.6%@ 15.80+1.9%
Arsenal Tula goals ↓
Ural goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
13%
9.1%
4.0%
1.3%
1
8.5%
14%
8.5%
3.8%
1.2%
2
4.6%
6.1%
4.0%
1.8%
0.6%
3
1.4%
1.9%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arsenal Tula goals (down), columns = Ural goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Sochi
2.57
Nizhny Novgorod
2.29
Veles
2.14
Ural
2.00
FC UFA
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.67
Spartak Kostroma
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Enisey
1.17
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Arsenal Tula
1.12
Leningradets
1.00
Tekstilshchik
0.71
KAMAZ
0.71
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Ska-khabarovsk
0.43
Arsenal Tula is 0.88 points worse than Ural in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nizhny Novgorod
3.00
FC Sochi
2.29
Ural
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.83
Veles
1.57
Enisey
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.33
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
FC UFA
1.17
Chelyabinsk
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Ska-khabarovsk
0.71
Leningradets
0.67
FK Neftekhimik
0.62
Tekstilshchik
0.29
Arsenal Tula is 0.96 goals worse than Ural in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ural
0.50
Torpedo Moskva
0.67
Leningradets
0.83
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.17
Enisey
1.33
Nizhny Novgorod
1.43
Veles
1.43
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
KAMAZ
1.57
Arsenal Tula
1.62
Ska-khabarovsk
2.00
Chelyabinsk
2.17
Arsenal Tula is 1.12 goals worse than Ural in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sochi
54%
FK Neftekhimik
54%
Veles
54%
Volga Ulyanovsk
52%
Arsenal Tula
52%
Leningradets
50%
Nizhny Novgorod
50%
Chelyabinsk
50%
Tekstilshchik
49%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Ska-khabarovsk
46%
FC UFA
46%
KAMAZ
46%
Ural
40%
Arsenal Tula is 12.0 percentage points better than Ural in terms of average possession (52% vs 40%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arsenal Tula
For 5.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ural
For 4.5 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 12.0 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arsenal Tula
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
11.0
11.0
2.5
2.3
2.7
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
1.7
1.7
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
11.0
11.0
11.0
2.6
2.4
2.7
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
100%
30%
28%
32%
-
-
-
% under line
0%
0%
0%
70%
72%
68%
-
-
-
This opponent (Ural) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ural
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.5
8.5
2.3
2.1
2.5
26.8
24.0
29.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
9.0
9.5
8.5
2.5
2.6
2.5
26.8
24.0
29.5
vs Weaker (13)
-
-
-
1.5
0.9
2.3
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
50%
30%
29%
31%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
70%
71%
69%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Tekstilshchik
12.0
Arsenal Tula
11.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
FC Sochi
9.2
Veles
9.0
Ural
9.0
FK Neftekhimik
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Leningradets
8.5
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tekstilshchik
5.0
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
FC Sochi
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Veles
4.2
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.4
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
FC Sochi
27.1
FK Neftekhimik
27.0
FC UFA
27.0
Ural
26.8
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.06
Marathonbet
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Under
Pinnacle
1.71
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.67
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Arsenal Tula or Draw✓ Hit
55.8%
Avg Implied 57.7% · @ 1.60
Edge
-1.9%
25%
31%
44%
covers Arsenal Tula + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.63
Superbet
1.57
SBO
1.53
Arsenal Tula or Ural✗ Miss
69.4%
Avg Implied 70.4% · @ 1.31
Edge
-1.0%
25%
31%
44%
covers Arsenal Tula + Ural
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.30
SBO
1.26
Draw or Ural✓ Hit
74.8%
Avg Implied 71.9% · @ 1.28
Edge
+2.9%
25%
31%
44%
covers Draw + Ural
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
SBO
1.26
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Arsenal Tula over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
60.8%
@ 1.45-3.0%
Under
39.2%
@ 2.54+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
Superbet
1.43
1xBet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.68
Superbet
2.52
Marathonbet
2.49
1xBet
2.49
Arsenal Tula over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
24.1%
@ 3.17-5.1%
Under
75.9%
@ 1.30+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.45
Marathonbet
3.32
Superbet
3.00
1xBet
2.90
Under
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Arsenal Tula over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.9%
@ 7.97-4.5%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.03+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.80
1xBet
8.10
Superbet
7.00
Under
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Arsenal Tula over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ural over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.3%
@ 1.26+0.4%
Under
26.7%
@ 3.40-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Under
Pinnacle
3.63
Marathonbet
3.40
1xBet
3.40
Superbet
3.15
Ural over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
38.0%
@ 2.34-1.7%
Under
62.0%
@ 1.54+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.45
Marathonbet
2.36
Superbet
2.32
1xBet
2.22
Under
1xBet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Ural over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.8%
@ 5.13-2.9%
Under
85.2%
@ 1.10+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.30
1xBet
5.20
Superbet
4.90
Under
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Ural over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Arsenal Tula, so a minus line means Arsenal Tula give that many goals of a start and Ural receive them. At -1, Arsenal Tula must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Arsenal Tula win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Arsenal Tula)Actual: Ural
Arsenal Tula -2
2.5%
Draw -2
6.8%
Ural +2
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Arsenal Tula)Actual: Ural
Arsenal Tula -1
9.3%
@ 7.60-2.5%
Draw -1
16.0%
@ 4.95-2.2%
Ural +1
74.8%
@ 1.28+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
7.60
Draw
Marathonbet
4.95
Away
Marathonbet
1.28
Handicap +1 (Arsenal Tula)Actual: Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula +1
55.8%
@ 1.63+1.1%
Draw +1
23.0%
@ 3.74-0.8%
Ural -1
21.2%
@ 4.15-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.63
Draw
Marathonbet
3.74
Away
Marathonbet
4.15
Handicap +2 (Arsenal Tula)Actual: Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula +2
78.8%
@ 1.16+2.4%
Draw +2
13.5%
@ 6.40-0.3%
Ural -2
7.6%
@ 9.10-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.16
Draw
Marathonbet
6.40
Away
Marathonbet
9.10
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arsenal Tula
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.53
0.73
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.46
0.79
0.54
0.69
0.40
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ural) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ural
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.85
0.23
0.47
0.59
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.62
0.88
0.38
0.46
0.77
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.00
0.80
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.2%
@ 1.47+4.1%
Under 0.5
32.8%
@ 2.51-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.69
Superbet
2.47
Marathonbet
2.44
1xBet
2.44
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.4%
@ 3.17+2.1%
Under 1.5
68.6%
@ 1.31-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.34
Marathonbet
3.16
1xBet
3.16
Superbet
3.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.9%
@ 7.87-0.6%
Under 2.5
89.1%
@ 1.02+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.30
Marathonbet
8.30
Superbet
7.00
Under
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arsenal Tula over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
37.0%
@ 2.54+0.6%
Under
63.0%
@ 1.46-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.62
Marathonbet
2.55
1xBet
2.55
Superbet
2.45
Under
Pinnacle
1.48
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Arsenal Tula over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.2%
@ 10.22-1.9%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.02+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Under
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Arsenal Tula over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ural over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
52.5%
@ 2.06+7.6%
Under
47.5%
@ 1.68-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.09
Marathonbet
2.06
1xBet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.73
Superbet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Ural over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.7%
@ 6.90+1.3%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.07-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.90
Marathonbet
6.90
Under
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Ural over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arsenal Tula
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.40
0.40
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.61
0.46
0.46
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ural) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ural
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.85
0.31
0.59
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.62
0.38
0.50
0.62
0.69
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.00
1.60
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.2%
@ 1.28+1.5%
Under 0.5
26.8%
@ 3.24-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Under
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.28
Superbet
3.15
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
39.6%
@ 2.34+0.3%
Under 1.5
60.4%
@ 1.52-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.35
1xBet
2.34
Marathonbet
2.34
Under
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Superbet
1.51
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
16.8%
@ 5.13-0.7%
Under 2.5
83.2%
@ 1.09+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.25
1xBet
5.25
Superbet
4.90
Under
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arsenal Tula over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
43.6%
@ 2.05-1.3%
Under
56.4%
@ 1.67+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.08
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Under
1xBet
1.70
Superbet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
Arsenal Tula over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
10.8%
@ 6.70-2.9%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.06+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
6.30
Under
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Arsenal Tula over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ural over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.2%
@ 1.74+2.1%
Under
44.8%
@ 1.97-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Under
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
1.97
Superbet
1.92
Ural over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.4%
@ 4.65-0.5%
Under
80.6%
@ 1.16+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.50
Under
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Ural over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.2%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
93.1%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.8%
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.1%
1.03
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.2%
1.06
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
-
-
-
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.02
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.3%
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.2%
1.10
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.2%
1.09
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
-
-
+0.7%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
80.8%
1.20
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-
+4.2%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.6%
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
-
-
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
78.8%
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
75.9%
1.30
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.29
-
+5.1%
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
74.8%
1.28
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
SBO
1.26
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
74.8%
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
-
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.3%
1.26
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.2%
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ural · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aleksey Kashtanov23%
Andrey Egorychev20%
Aleksey Ionov17%
Silvije Begić15%
Eric Bicfalvi14%
Danijel Miškić12%
Guilherme Schettine8%
Vladis-Emmerson Illoy-Ayyet6%
Timur Ayupov4%
Ilya Ishkov4%
Ilya Pomazun0%
Artem Mamin0%
Yuri Gazinskiy0%
Egor Filipenko0%
Vladislav Malkevich0%
Ibrahima Cisse0%
Artem Kontsevoj0%
Alexander Yushin0%
Rai Vloet0%
Kiki Afonso0%
Mingiyan Beveev0%
Denys Kulakov0%
Fanil Sungatulin0%
Valeri Bocherov0%
Igor Dmitriev0%
Ítalo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Silvije Begić42%
Valeri Bocherov25%
Denys Kulakov19%
Aleksey Ionov17%
Guilherme Schettine17%
Timur Ayupov17%
Danijel Miškić15%
Yuri Gazinskiy14%
Kiki Afonso14%
Ilya Pomazun14%
Egor Filipenko12%
Ítalo12%
Mingiyan Beveev11%
Ilya Ishkov11%
Ibrahima Cisse10%
Eric Bicfalvi9%
Andrey Egorychev8%
Artem Mamin8%
Alexander Yushin8%
Aleksey Kashtanov8%
Vladis-Emmerson Illoy-Ayyet6%
Igor Dmitriev4%
Vladislav Malkevich0%
Artem Kontsevoj0%
Rai Vloet0%
Fanil Sungatulin0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrey Egorychev12%
Eric Bicfalvi9%
Ítalo8%
Alexander Yushin8%
Danijel Miškić8%
Igor Dmitriev8%
Ilya Ishkov7%
Timur Ayupov4%
Silvije Begić4%
Denys Kulakov4%
Aleksey Kashtanov4%
Ilya Pomazun0%
Artem Mamin0%
Yuri Gazinskiy0%
Egor Filipenko0%
Vladislav Malkevich0%
Aleksey Ionov0%
Ibrahima Cisse0%
Artem Kontsevoj0%
Rai Vloet0%
Vladis-Emmerson Illoy-Ayyet0%
Guilherme Schettine0%
Kiki Afonso0%
Mingiyan Beveev0%
Fanil Sungatulin0%
Valeri Bocherov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Guilherme Schettine17%
Aleksey Kashtanov15%
Eric Bicfalvi14%
Andrey Egorychev12%
Timur Ayupov8%
Alexander Yushin8%
Silvije Begić4%
Igor Dmitriev4%
Ilya Ishkov4%
Ilya Pomazun0%
Artem Mamin0%
Yuri Gazinskiy0%
Egor Filipenko0%
Vladislav Malkevich0%
Aleksey Ionov0%
Ibrahima Cisse0%
Artem Kontsevoj0%
Rai Vloet0%
Vladis-Emmerson Illoy-Ayyet0%
Kiki Afonso0%
Danijel Miškić0%
Mingiyan Beveev0%
Denys Kulakov0%
Fanil Sungatulin0%
Valeri Bocherov0%
Ítalo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (28)
€18m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Arsenal Tula's squad is €3m less valuable than Ural's (€8m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Arsenal Tula's attack is €1m less valuable than Ural's (€3m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Arsenal Tula and Ural have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (11)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Arsenal Tula's defence is €1m less valuable than Ural's (€3m vs €4m).
Russia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Sochi
Nizhny Novgorod
Veles
FC UFA
Torpedo Moskva
Rotor Volgograd
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Spartak Kostroma
FK Neftekhimik
Enisey
Volga Ulyanovsk
Leningradets
KAMAZ
Tekstilshchik
Chelyabinsk
Ska-khabarovsk