This opponent (Brighton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brighton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.53
1.67
1.27
2.33
1.80
vs Stronger (3)
2.33
1.67
2.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.64
1.64
1.54
1.23
1.75
2.08
vs Weaker (2)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.8%
Under 2.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.1%
Under 3.5
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
12.2%
1-1
12.0%
2-0 ✓
11.7%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.6%
3-0
6.9%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
5.1%
Arsenal goals ↓
Brighton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
5.1%
2.6%
0.7%
0.1%
1
12%
12%
4.5%
1.2%
0.3%
2
12%
9.6%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
6.9%
5.7%
2.3%
0.6%
0.1%
4
3.0%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arsenal goals (down), columns = Brighton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newcastle
2.71
Sheffield Weds
2.50
Tottenham
2.40
Fleetwood Town
2.33
Crystal Palace
2.25
Coventry
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Fulham
2.00
Wycombe
2.00
Watford
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Everton
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Derby
2.00
Liverpool
2.00
Brighton
2.00
Arsenal
1.80
Southampton
1.75
Stoke
1.75
Preston
1.75
Brentford
1.75
Walsall
1.67
Cardiff
1.50
Doncaster
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
West Ham
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Birmingham
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Crawley Town
1.50
Chelsea
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Millwall
1.50
Norwich
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Harrogate
1.50
Oxford
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Barnsley
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Barrow
1.33
Leicester
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Exeter
1.00
Reading
1.00
Notts County
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Luton
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Barnet
0.76
Oldham
0.70
Grimsby
0.50
Shrewsbury
0.50
Colchester
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Salford
0.00
Port Vale
0.00
Wrexham
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Burton
0.00
Stockport
0.00
Stevenage
0.00
Cambridge
0.00
Accrington
0.00
West Brom
0.00
Bromley
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Gillingham
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Hull
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Chesterfield
0.00
Swindon
0.00
Newport County
0.00
Crewe
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Lincoln
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Arsenal is 0.20 points worse than Brighton in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester United
5.00
Blackburn
3.50
Stevenage
3.00
Notts County
3.00
Brighton
3.00
Watford
2.67
Cardiff
2.50
Southampton
2.50
Chelsea
2.50
Stoke
2.50
Huddersfield
2.50
Crystal Palace
2.50
Liverpool
2.50
Sheffield Weds
2.25
Arsenal
2.20
Sheffield United
2.00
Port Vale
2.00
Wrexham
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Reading
2.00
Crawley Town
2.00
Leicester
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Everton
2.00
Norwich
2.00
Swindon
2.00
Preston
2.00
Wolves
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Newcastle
1.86
Tottenham
1.80
Fleetwood Town
1.67
Rotherham
1.50
Shrewsbury
1.50
Fulham
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Brentford
1.50
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Wycombe
1.33
Walsall
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Coventry
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
West Ham
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Grimsby
1.00
Stockport
1.00
Cambridge
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Barrow
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Harrogate
1.00
Hull
1.00
Oxford
1.00
Derby
1.00
Chesterfield
1.00
Newport County
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Luton
1.00
Crewe
1.00
Lincoln
1.00
Colchester
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Barnet
0.99
Oldham
0.92
Barnsley
0.67
Birmingham
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Salford
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Burton
0.00
Accrington
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Arsenal is 0.80 goals worse than Brighton in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 3.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Newcastle
0.43
Fulham
0.50
Everton
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Oxford
0.50
Derby
0.50
Coventry
0.67
Blackpool
0.67
Wycombe
0.67
Watford
0.67
Sheffield Weds
0.75
Bristol City
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Birmingham
1.00
Fleetwood Town
1.00
Chelsea
1.00
Bournemouth
1.00
Swansea
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Plymouth
1.00
Stoke
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Portsmouth
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Preston
1.00
Luton
1.00
Charlton
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Liverpool
1.17
Crystal Palace
1.25
Brentford
1.25
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Leyton Orient
1.33
Arsenal
1.40
Doncaster
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Colchester
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Leicester
1.67
Brighton
1.67
Tottenham
1.80
Bristol Rvs
2.00
Salford
2.00
Southampton
2.00
Reading
2.00
Northampton
2.00
Cambridge
2.00
West Brom
2.00
Bromley
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Hull
2.00
Chesterfield
2.00
Tranmere
2.00
Crewe
2.00
Peterboro
2.00
Bolton
2.00
Lincoln
2.00
Burnley
2.00
Sunderland
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Barrow
2.33
Cardiff
2.50
West Ham
2.50
Shrewsbury
2.50
Middlesbrough
2.50
Barnet
2.54
Barnsley
2.67
Oldham
2.73
Cheltenham
3.00
Grimsby
3.00
Port Vale
3.00
Leeds
3.00
Crawley Town
3.00
Accrington
3.00
Notts County
3.00
Gillingham
3.00
Harrogate
3.00
Norwich
3.50
Wrexham
4.00
Burton
4.00
Stevenage
4.00
Swindon
4.00
Newport County
4.00
Milton Keynes Dons
5.00
Stockport
6.00
Arsenal is 0.27 goals better than Brighton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arsenal
For 6.7 · Against 3.7 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 11.6 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brighton
For 5.1 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 9.9 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arsenal
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.1
9.9
3.0
2.9
3.1
21.2
20.5
22.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
8.6
8.1
9.0
3.6
3.2
4.0
22.0
20.9
23.1
vs Weaker (35)
9.8
9.5
10.3
2.8
2.8
2.8
20.8
20.4
21.4
% over line
43%
38%
50%
44%
41%
48%
41%
38%
45%
% under line
57%
62%
50%
56%
59%
52%
59%
62%
55%
This opponent (Brighton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brighton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.1
10.2
4.0
3.7
4.2
23.0
23.8
22.4
vs Stronger (7)
8.0
5.5
13.0
3.6
3.2
4.5
24.7
25.0
24.0
vs Similar (41)
9.9
9.9
9.9
4.1
3.8
4.4
22.8
23.5
22.2
vs Weaker (2)
10.0
-
10.0
2.0
-
2.0
22.5
-
22.5
% over line
60%
52%
67%
60%
50%
69%
60%
67%
54%
% under line
40%
48%
33%
40%
50%
31%
40%
33%
46%
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Coventry
11.3
Tottenham
11.0
Newcastle
11.0
Huddersfield
10.8
Sheffield Weds
10.8
Oldham
10.8
Portsmouth
10.7
Doncaster
10.6
Harrogate
10.6
Liverpool
10.6
Bournemouth
10.6
Ipswich
10.5
Luton
10.5
Brentford
10.5
Wigan
10.4
Crawley Town
10.4
Nottingham Forest
10.4
Bromley
10.4
Aston Villa
10.4
Barrow
10.3
Barnsley
10.3
Oxford
10.3
Barnet
10.2
West Ham
10.2
Millwall
10.2
Stoke
10.1
Shrewsbury
10.1
QPR
10.1
Sheffield United
10.1
Cheltenham
10.1
Norwich
10.1
Leyton Orient
10.1
Grimsby
10.0
Fulham
10.0
Hull
10.0
Crystal Palace
10.0
Watford
10.0
Chesterfield
10.0
Leicester
10.0
Plymouth
10.0
Southampton
10.0
Middlesbrough
9.9
West Brom
9.9
Walsall
9.9
Reading
9.9
Everton
9.9
Newport County
9.8
Cardiff
9.8
Swindon
9.8
Bristol Rvs
9.8
Blackburn
9.8
Burton
9.8
Sunderland
9.7
Port Vale
9.7
Derby
9.7
Bolton
9.7
Brighton
9.6
Rotherham
9.6
Arsenal
9.6
Crewe
9.6
Wolves
9.6
Fleetwood Town
9.6
Leeds
9.6
Salford
9.6
Bradford
9.6
Bristol City
9.5
Exeter
9.5
Chelsea
9.5
Northampton
9.4
Wrexham
9.4
Peterboro
9.4
Mansfield
9.4
Cambridge
9.3
Manchester United
9.3
Preston
9.3
Colchester
9.3
Manchester City
9.3
Burnley
9.2
Stevenage
9.2
Charlton
9.2
AFC Wimbledon
9.2
Lincoln
9.1
Notts County
9.1
Swansea
9.1
Birmingham
9.0
Blackpool
8.9
Wycombe
8.9
Milton Keynes Dons
8.8
Accrington
8.8
Stockport
8.7
Tranmere
8.7
Gillingham
7.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
5.0
Accrington
4.9
Bolton
4.8
Gillingham
4.7
Nottingham Forest
4.7
Watford
4.6
Crewe
4.5
Bradford
4.5
Brighton
4.4
Chelsea
4.4
Colchester
4.4
Chesterfield
4.3
Grimsby
4.3
Portsmouth
4.2
Southampton
4.2
Crystal Palace
4.2
Salford
4.2
Sunderland
4.2
Crawley Town
4.2
Tranmere
4.1
Ipswich
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Newcastle
4.1
Bristol Rvs
4.0
Wolves
4.0
Peterboro
4.0
Milton Keynes Dons
4.0
Cambridge
4.0
Barrow
4.0
Birmingham
3.9
Lincoln
3.9
Shrewsbury
3.9
Notts County
3.9
Walsall
3.9
Bromley
3.9
Aston Villa
3.9
Oldham
3.9
QPR
3.9
Stoke
3.9
Norwich
3.8
Brentford
3.8
Exeter
3.8
Leicester
3.7
Sheffield United
3.7
Blackburn
3.7
Barnet
3.7
Charlton
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Preston
3.7
Swansea
3.7
Liverpool
3.7
Swindon
3.7
Fulham
3.7
Burton
3.7
Port Vale
3.7
Fleetwood Town
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Derby
3.6
Luton
3.6
Coventry
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Wigan
3.6
Huddersfield
3.6
Stevenage
3.6
Doncaster
3.6
Stockport
3.6
Oxford
3.6
AFC Wimbledon
3.6
Cheltenham
3.6
Everton
3.6
West Brom
3.6
Newport County
3.6
Barnsley
3.6
Wycombe
3.6
Hull
3.5
Tottenham
3.5
Bristol City
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Rotherham
3.5
Leyton Orient
3.5
West Ham
3.5
Plymouth
3.4
Northampton
3.4
Arsenal
3.4
Sheffield Weds
3.4
Burnley
3.4
Wrexham
3.4
Reading
3.3
Blackpool
3.1
Harrogate
3.1
Leeds
3.1
Millwall
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Oldham
26.1
Salford
25.7
Cheltenham
25.6
Crewe
25.5
Colchester
25.3
Bolton
24.9
Grimsby
24.8
Accrington
24.8
Gillingham
24.7
Rotherham
24.6
Milton Keynes Dons
24.6
Bradford
24.6
Stevenage
24.6
Exeter
24.3
Cambridge
24.2
Birmingham
24.1
Barnet
24.1
Bournemouth
24.1
Lincoln
24.0
Wolves
23.9
Millwall
23.9
Mansfield
23.8
Crawley Town
23.8
Peterboro
23.8
Wycombe
23.8
Blackburn
23.8
Southampton
23.8
Stockport
23.7
Swansea
23.7
Luton
23.5
Doncaster
23.4
Tranmere
23.4
Portsmouth
23.3
Sheffield Weds
23.2
AFC Wimbledon
23.2
Wigan
23.1
Charlton
23.1
Fleetwood Town
23.1
Bristol Rvs
23.0
Shrewsbury
23.0
Newport County
23.0
QPR
22.9
Aston Villa
22.9
Brighton
22.9
Cardiff
22.8
Northampton
22.8
Ipswich
22.8
Notts County
22.8
Huddersfield
22.8
Plymouth
22.7
Chesterfield
22.7
Watford
22.7
Newcastle
22.6
Sunderland
22.6
Sheffield United
22.6
Tottenham
22.5
Reading
22.5
Preston
22.4
Norwich
22.4
Chelsea
22.3
Blackpool
22.2
Nottingham Forest
22.2
Burnley
22.1
Swindon
22.1
West Ham
22.0
Leeds
21.9
Bromley
21.8
Walsall
21.7
Port Vale
21.7
Manchester United
21.7
Everton
21.6
Hull
21.6
Leicester
21.6
Fulham
21.5
Harrogate
21.5
Burton
21.5
Barrow
21.5
West Brom
21.4
Barnsley
21.3
Middlesbrough
21.3
Crystal Palace
21.2
Oxford
21.2
Leyton Orient
21.1
Derby
21.0
Arsenal
20.9
Stoke
20.8
Coventry
20.7
Bristol City
20.4
Liverpool
20.3
Wrexham
20.3
Brentford
18.8
Manchester City
18.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
39.8%
Under 9.5
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.3%
Under 3.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
48.0%
Under 21.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Arsenal or Draw✓ Hit
83.9%
Avg Implied -
59%
25%
16%
covers Arsenal + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal or Brighton✓ Hit
74.7%
Avg Implied -
59%
25%
16%
covers Arsenal + Brighton
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Brighton✗ Miss
41.4%
Avg Implied -
59%
25%
16%
covers Draw + Brighton
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Arsenal over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.8%
Under
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
52.6%
Under
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
25.9%
Under
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
56.1%
Under
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Arsenal, so a minus line means Arsenal give that many goals of a start and Brighton receive them. At -1, Arsenal must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Arsenal win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Arsenal)Actual: Draw
Arsenal -2
15.6%
Draw -2
18.5%
Brighton +2
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Arsenal)Actual: Arsenal
Arsenal -1
34.1%
Draw -1
24.4%
Brighton +1
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Arsenal)Actual: Arsenal
Arsenal +1
83.9%
Draw +1
10.8%
Brighton -1
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Arsenal)Actual: Arsenal
Arsenal +2
94.7%
Draw +2
4.0%
Brighton -2
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arsenal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.33
0.81
0.25
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (17)
0.88
0.12
1.00
0.10
0.71
0.14
Clean sheet %
70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brighton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
0.80
0.53
0.73
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.72
0.85
0.38
0.42
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
-
-
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arsenal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arsenal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.37
1.12
0.38
1.36
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.38
0.31
1.33
0.17
1.43
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
1.12
0.41
1.00
0.50
1.29
0.29
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brighton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.77
0.87
0.73
1.60
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.00
0.92
0.69
0.85
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.00
-
-
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arsenal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Arsenal
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Viktor Gyökeres30%
Kai Havertz26%
Bukayo Saka22%
Gabriel Jesus19%
Gabriel Martinelli17%
Leandro Trossard16%
Mikel Merino15%
Noni Madueke14%
Eberechi Eze14%
Martín Zubimendi9%
Ethan Nwaneri8%
Gabriel Magalhães8%
Max Dowman8%
Declan Rice7%
Jurriën Timber7%
Ben White3%
Martin Ødegaard3%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Piero Hincapié3%
William Saliba2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Christian Nørgaard0%
Myles Lewis-Skelly0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Marli Salmon0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kepa Arrizabalaga36%
Riccardo Calafiori19%
Martín Zubimendi14%
Cristhian Mosquera14%
Jurriën Timber14%
Myles Lewis-Skelly14%
Declan Rice13%
Mikel Merino12%
Gabriel Jesus11%
Viktor Gyökeres11%
Ben White10%
Gabriel Magalhães10%
Christian Nørgaard10%
Gabriel Martinelli10%
Kai Havertz9%
Piero Hincapié8%
Bukayo Saka6%
Leandro Trossard6%
William Saliba6%
Eberechi Eze4%
Noni Madueke2%
David Raya2%
Martin Ødegaard0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Max Dowman0%
Marli Salmon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kai Havertz22%
Leandro Trossard20%
Martin Ødegaard19%
Declan Rice15%
Bukayo Saka14%
Jurriën Timber14%
Gabriel Martinelli13%
Myles Lewis-Skelly11%
Gabriel Magalhães10%
Christian Nørgaard10%
Mikel Merino9%
Eberechi Eze8%
Ben White7%
Viktor Gyökeres6%
Riccardo Calafiori6%
Piero Hincapié5%
Noni Madueke5%
Gabriel Jesus4%
Martín Zubimendi4%
William Saliba2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Max Dowman0%
Marli Salmon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Viktor Gyökeres24%
Bukayo Saka18%
Leandro Trossard16%
Eberechi Eze16%
Max Dowman15%
Gabriel Jesus15%
Mikel Merino12%
Noni Madueke10%
Kai Havertz9%
Ethan Nwaneri8%
Gabriel Martinelli8%
Martin Ødegaard6%
Jurriën Timber5%
Declan Rice4%
Martín Zubimendi4%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Gabriel Magalhães2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Ben White0%
William Saliba0%
Christian Nørgaard0%
Piero Hincapié0%
Myles Lewis-Skelly0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Marli Salmon0%
Brighton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Danny Welbeck28%
Matt O'Riley17%
Stefanos Tzimas17%
Harry Howell17%
Diego Gómez16%
Brajan Gruda15%
Jack Hinshelwood13%
Yasin Ayari12%
Kaoru Mitoma11%
Tom Watson10%
Georginio Rutter9%
Yankuba Minteh8%
Charalampos Kostoulas8%
Maxim De Cuyper6%
Olivier Boscagli6%
Jan Paul van Hecke5%
Pascal Groß5%
James Milner5%
Joël Veltman4%
Mats Wieffer4%
Lewis Dunk3%
Ferdi Kadıoğlu2%
Jason Steele0%
Solly March0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Diego Coppola0%
Carlos Baleba0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Diego Coppola33%
Lewis Dunk32%
Mats Wieffer29%
Diego Gómez27%
Jan Paul van Hecke25%
Carlos Baleba20%
Kaoru Mitoma19%
Joël Veltman18%
Olivier Boscagli18%
Ferdi Kadıoğlu17%
Danny Welbeck12%
Charalampos Kostoulas12%
Brajan Gruda10%
Tom Watson10%
Pascal Groß10%
James Milner9%
Stefanos Tzimas8%
Yankuba Minteh8%
Bart Verbruggen8%
Maxim De Cuyper6%
Georginio Rutter6%
Yasin Ayari3%
Jason Steele0%
Solly March0%
Matt O'Riley0%
Jack Hinshelwood0%
Harry Howell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Diego Coppola22%
Stefanos Tzimas17%
Harry Howell17%
Brajan Gruda15%
Pascal Groß14%
Yankuba Minteh11%
Mats Wieffer11%
Jack Hinshelwood10%
Tom Watson10%
Yasin Ayari9%
Georginio Rutter9%
Jan Paul van Hecke8%
Maxim De Cuyper6%
Olivier Boscagli6%
Danny Welbeck5%
James Milner5%
Charalampos Kostoulas4%
Kaoru Mitoma4%
Joël Veltman4%
Diego Gómez3%
Ferdi Kadıoğlu0%
Jason Steele0%
Lewis Dunk0%
Solly March0%
Matt O'Riley0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Carlos Baleba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Matt O'Riley17%
Danny Welbeck15%
Yasin Ayari12%
Diego Gómez11%
Kaoru Mitoma7%
Jack Hinshelwood7%
Georginio Rutter6%
Brajan Gruda5%
Charalampos Kostoulas4%
Lewis Dunk3%
Jan Paul van Hecke2%
Ferdi Kadıoğlu2%
James Milner0%
Joël Veltman0%
Jason Steele0%
Pascal Groß0%
Solly March0%
Olivier Boscagli0%
Mats Wieffer0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Maxim De Cuyper0%
Tom Watson0%
Diego Coppola0%
Stefanos Tzimas0%
Carlos Baleba0%
Yankuba Minteh0%
Harry Howell0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
COV (27)
€237m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
HUL (27)
€105m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
LEI (22)
€69m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
Arsenal's squad is €787m more valuable than Brighton's (€1406m vs €620m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
HUL (7)
€22m
LEI (7)
€20m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
BAR (3)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
Arsenal's attack is €418m more valuable than Brighton's (€608m vs €190m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
IPS (7)
€66m
SOU (5)
€53m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
HUL (8)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
FUL (3)
€28m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
LEI (4)
€13m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
MKD (6)
€7m
BLB (7)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
LUT (6)
€4m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Arsenal's midfield is €110m more valuable than Brighton's (€290m vs €180m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
SOU (15)
€79m
HUL (12)
€52m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
LUT (10)
€12m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
Arsenal's defence is €260m more valuable than Brighton's (€508m vs €249m).
England: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Manchester United
Aston Villa
Liverpool
Bournemouth
Sunderland
Brentford
Chelsea
Fulham
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
West Ham
Burnley
Wolves