Arsenal are tipped to win, with a 48% chance of triumph, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 25% chance of a Chelsea victory. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.1% probability. Arsenal’s home form shows they average 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded against similar opposition, while Chelsea’s away numbers are 1.5 scored and 1.67 conceded versus similar teams. The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.5%), Under 7.5 (99.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Under 6.5 (97.3%), Away under 1.5 HT goals (94.3%), Home +2 handicap (94.0%), and Home under 2.5 HT goals (93.1%). Each of these picks carries its own probability, with edges noted where provided. Arsenal’s recent five-match run of WWDWW, including a 1-0 win over Aston Villa, and Chelsea’s recent WWWLW streak, highlighted by a 4-3 win over Brighton, set the stage for a closely contested Premier League fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arsenal win
47.9%
Avg Implied 55.9% · @ 1.70
Edge
-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.74
Dafabet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
Betfair
1.70
Bet365
1.70
Draw
27.4%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.78
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.91
Dafabet
3.90
Betfair
3.90
BetVictor
3.90
Pinnacle
3.87
Chelsea win
24.7%
Avg Implied 19.0% · @ 5.00
Edge
+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.43
Pinnacle
5.36
Marathonbet
5.35
Betano
5.10
Unibet
5.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Arsenal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.67
1.80
0.47
1.60
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.78
0.80
0.60
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
2.05
0.62
2.30
0.40
1.82
0.82
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chelsea
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.57
1.62
1.31
1.93
1.86
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
4.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
5.00
vs Similar (12)
1.25
1.67
1.00
1.67
1.50
1.67
vs Weaker (16)
2.25
1.19
2.22
0.89
2.29
1.57
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.8%
@ 1.24-0.1%
Under 1.5
24.2%
@ 3.90+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.24
Unibet
1.24
Under
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.0%
@ 1.77-3.7%
Under 2.5
50.0%
@ 2.06+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Under
1xBet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.13
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
SBO
2.08
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.0%
@ 2.83-5.1%
Under 3.5
72.0%
@ 1.40+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.00
Betano
2.95
Unibet
2.95
10Bet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Marathonbet
1.40
Both teams to score
Yes
53.9%
@ 1.72-0.3%
No
46.1%
@ 2.03+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Unibet
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.72
No
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.05
Betano
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 6.94+6.5%
1-0
9.8%@ 7.29+3.5%
2-1
9.4%@ 7.64+3.5%
2-0
8.7%@ 8.14+3.1%
0-0
8.1%@ 10.88+3.9%
1-2
6.4%@ 14.66+3.3%
0-1
6.3%@ 13.45+2.9%
2-2
5.1%@ 13.81+1.8%
Arsenal goals ↓
Chelsea goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
6.3%
4.1%
1.5%
0.4%
1
9.8%
13%
6.4%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.4%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
3
4.6%
5.0%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.8%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arsenal goals (down), columns = Chelsea goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Arsenal is 0.87 points better than Chelsea in terms of average points per game (2.24 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Arsenal is 0.34 goals better than Chelsea in terms of goals scored per game (1.87 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Arsenal is 0.66 goals better than Chelsea in terms of goals conceded per game (0.71 vs 1.37).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Arsenal is 1.6 percentage points worse than Chelsea in terms of average possession (56% vs 57%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Arsenal
For 4.1 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 12.2 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chelsea
For 5.4 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 13.1 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arsenal
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.8
9.2
3.5
3.0
4.0
22.1
22.2
22.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
9.3
8.4
10.4
3.9
3.2
4.6
22.9
22.8
23.0
vs Weaker (35)
8.9
9.1
8.7
3.4
2.8
3.8
21.7
21.9
21.6
% over line
44%
42%
46%
52%
50%
54%
58%
62%
54%
% under line
56%
58%
54%
48%
50%
46%
42%
38%
46%
This opponent (Chelsea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chelsea
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.8
9.3
4.3
4.4
4.3
22.7
22.9
22.6
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
12.0
5.0
0.5
0.0
1.0
19.5
18.0
21.0
vs Similar (22)
9.6
10.2
9.0
4.8
5.2
4.4
24.9
24.1
25.6
vs Weaker (26)
10.5
11.2
9.9
4.3
4.0
4.5
21.2
22.2
20.3
% over line
64%
71%
58%
64%
71%
58%
56%
67%
46%
% under line
36%
29%
42%
36%
29%
42%
44%
33%
54%
This opponent (Arsenal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.7
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Tottenham
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Brighton
9.7
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Manchester United
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Everton
9.3
Aston Villa
9.3
Sunderland
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.3
Hull
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.9
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Chelsea
22.7
Sunderland
22.7
Leeds
22.1
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Newcastle
21.8
Everton
21.6
Manchester United
21.5
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
20.0
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.8%
@ 1.78-6.6%
Under 9.5
54.2%
@ 1.96+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathonbet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Under
Unibet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.01
1xBet
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
51.1%
@ 1.37-16.6%
Under 3.5
48.9%
@ 2.88+16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.35
Under
Pinnacle
3.03
Betano
2.90
Unibet
2.70
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
53.0%
Under 21.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Arsenal or Draw
83.1%
Avg Implied 80.7% · @ 1.17
Edge
+2.3%
48%
27%
25%
covers Arsenal + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Arsenal or Chelsea
76.1%
Avg Implied 75.4% · @ 1.25
Edge
+0.8%
48%
27%
25%
covers Arsenal + Chelsea
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Unibet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Draw or Chelsea
40.8%
Avg Implied 43.9% · @ 2.15
Edge
-3.1%
48%
27%
25%
covers Draw + Chelsea
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
1xBet
2.22
Betano
2.20
Unibet
2.15
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Arsenal over/under 0.5
Over
85.3%
@ 1.13+2.9%
Under
14.7%
@ 5.29-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Under
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.20
1xBet
5.00
Arsenal over/under 1.5
Over
57.1%
@ 1.69+1.6%
Under
42.9%
@ 2.11-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Under
Pinnacle
2.20
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.15
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Arsenal over/under 2.5
Over
30.1%
@ 3.17+0.7%
Under
69.9%
@ 1.32-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Pinnacle
3.20
Under
Marathonbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Arsenal over/under 3.5
Over
12.8%
@ 6.66-1.2%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.09+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.90
Unibet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Chelsea over/under 0.5
Over
61.0%
@ 1.50-1.4%
Under
39.0%
@ 2.48+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.61
Betfair
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.50
Chelsea over/under 1.5
Over
24.2%
@ 3.41-3.2%
Under
75.8%
@ 1.29+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.63
Marathonbet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Under
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Chelsea over/under 2.5
Over
7.0%
@ 9.30-3.1%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.04+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Marathonbet
9.30
Unibet
9.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.04
Chelsea over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
@ 21.00-3.0%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Arsenal, so a minus line means Arsenal give that many goals of a start and Chelsea receive them. At -1, Arsenal must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Arsenal win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Arsenal)
Arsenal -2
17.3%
@ 5.46+0.9%
Draw -2
18.5%
@ 4.84-0.0%
Chelsea +2
64.2%
@ 1.38-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.25
Marathonbet
4.80
Draw
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Away
Marathonbet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Betfair
1.33
Handicap -1 (Arsenal)
Arsenal -1
35.8%
@ 2.79+3.4%
Draw -1
23.4%
@ 3.55-2.1%
Chelsea +1
40.8%
@ 2.15-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
2.85
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.65
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.45
10Bet
3.40
Away
Marathonbet
2.22
Betfair
2.20
Unibet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Handicap +1 (Arsenal)
Arsenal +1
83.1%
@ 1.16+6.5%
Draw +1
10.9%
@ 5.97-4.0%
Chelsea -1
6.0%
@ 10.47-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.00
Marathonbet
4.10
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
10.50
10Bet
10.00
Marathonbet
5.85
Handicap +2 (Arsenal)
Arsenal +2
94.0%
@ 1.03+3.0%
Draw +2
4.5%
@ 15.00-1.8%
Chelsea -2
1.5%
@ 35.00-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
29.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arsenal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.20
1.27
0.20
0.67
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.22
0.40
0.20
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (21)
1.14
0.19
1.70
0.20
0.64
0.18
Clean sheet %
80% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chelsea
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.69
0.56
1.00
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.75
0.67
0.50
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.94
0.50
0.78
0.44
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.8%
@ 1.35+7.0%
Under 0.5
23.2%
@ 3.10-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Under
Pinnacle
3.32
William Hil
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.6%
@ 2.56+2.0%
Under 1.5
61.4%
@ 1.48-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.72
Pinnacle
2.66
Betfair
2.60
Marathonbet
2.60
1xBet
2.60
Under
Bet365
1.50
William Hil
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.8%
@ 6.14-0.4%
Under 2.5
85.2%
@ 1.10+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
7.00
William Hil
6.00
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
6.00
Under
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arsenal over/under 0.5 HT
Over
63.8%
@ 1.68+8.3%
Under
36.2%
@ 2.09-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.69
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.63
Under
Pinnacle
2.17
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
2.10
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Arsenal over/under 1.5 HT
Over
27.0%
@ 4.28+5.3%
Under
73.0%
@ 1.18-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Betano
4.25
Unibet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Arsenal over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.9%
@ 9.50-3.0%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.04+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Chelsea over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.5%
@ 2.60-2.3%
Under
66.5%
@ 1.45+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.69
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.58
Under
10Bet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Chelsea over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.7%
@ 9.51-4.1%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.02+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.90
1xBet
9.90
Unibet
9.50
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
Chelsea over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.5%
@ 15.00-5.8%
Under
99.5%
@ 1.01+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arsenal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.53
0.27
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.56
0.40
0.40
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (21)
0.90
0.43
0.60
0.20
1.18
0.64
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chelsea
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.87
0.94
0.75
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.92
0.33
1.17
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.31
0.69
1.44
0.44
1.14
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.6%
@ 1.20+6.9%
Under 0.5
15.4%
@ 4.20-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
1xBet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.1%
@ 1.95+5.0%
Under 1.5
46.9%
@ 1.81-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.00
Unibet
1.98
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Under
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.75
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.4%
@ 3.95-0.3%
Under 2.5
76.6%
@ 1.23+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.20
Unibet
4.10
10Bet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.75
Under
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arsenal over/under 0.5 2H
Over
73.2%
@ 1.46+9.2%
Under
26.8%
@ 2.58-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Under
1xBet
2.60
Betano
2.57
Arsenal over/under 1.5 2H
Over
35.2%
@ 3.08+5.2%
Under
64.8%
@ 1.32-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.30
Betano
3.05
1xBet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Under
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
10Bet
1.28
Arsenal over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.3%
@ 7.45-2.1%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.05+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
Chelsea over/under 0.5 2H
Over
39.2%
@ 2.12-4.6%
Under
60.8%
@ 1.66+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.12
Betano
2.07
Under
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.63
Chelsea over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.6%
@ 6.77-6.1%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.07+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.30
Marathonbet
6.90
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Chelsea over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.5%
@ 12.00-6.3%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.8%
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
Under 6.5
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.4%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.3%
1.02
Betano
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
-
+4.1%
Home +2 handicap
94.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+3.0%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.1%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
Away under 2.5 goals
93.0%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.04
+3.1%
Under 5.5
93.0%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.03
BetVictor
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+2.1%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.4%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.04
-
-
+6.1%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
89.7%
1.05
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+2.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
87.2%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
+1.2%
Home over 0.5 goals
85.3%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
+2.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
+0.4%
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.6%
1.20
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+6.9%
Under 4.5
83.8%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
+1.6%
Home or Draw
83.1%
1.17
1xBet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
William Hil
1.17
+2.3%
Home +1 handicap
83.1%
1.16
Marathonbet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
+6.5%
Under 25.5 fouls
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
76.8%
1.35
Unibet
1.44
1xBet
1.35
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
-
+8.7%
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.8%
1.35
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
+7.0%
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.6%
1.23
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+0.3%
Home or Away
76.1%
1.25
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Unibet
1.26
Betano
1.26
+0.8%
Over 1.5
75.8%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.24
Unibet
1.24
-0.1%
Away under 1.5 goals
75.8%
1.29
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
+3.2%
Home over 0.5 2H goals
73.2%
1.46
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.44
-
-
-
+9.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
73.0%
1.18
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
-5.3%
Under 3.5
72.0%
1.40
Pinnacle
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Marathonbet
1.40
+5.1%
Over 2.5 cards
71.9%
1.22
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.16
-
-
-
-4.6%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Arsenal · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Viktor Gyökeres30%
Kai Havertz26%
Bukayo Saka22%
Gabriel Jesus19%
Gabriel Martinelli17%
Leandro Trossard16%
Mikel Merino15%
Noni Madueke14%
Eberechi Eze14%
Martín Zubimendi9%
Ethan Nwaneri8%
Gabriel Magalhães8%
Max Dowman8%
Declan Rice7%
Jurriën Timber7%
Ben White3%
Martin Ødegaard3%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Piero Hincapié3%
William Saliba2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Christian Nørgaard0%
Myles Lewis-Skelly0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Marli Salmon0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kepa Arrizabalaga36%
Riccardo Calafiori19%
Martín Zubimendi14%
Cristhian Mosquera14%
Jurriën Timber14%
Myles Lewis-Skelly14%
Declan Rice13%
Mikel Merino12%
Gabriel Jesus11%
Viktor Gyökeres11%
Ben White10%
Gabriel Magalhães10%
Christian Nørgaard10%
Gabriel Martinelli10%
Kai Havertz9%
Piero Hincapié8%
Bukayo Saka6%
Leandro Trossard6%
William Saliba6%
Eberechi Eze4%
Noni Madueke2%
David Raya2%
Martin Ødegaard0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Max Dowman0%
Marli Salmon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kai Havertz22%
Leandro Trossard20%
Martin Ødegaard19%
Declan Rice15%
Bukayo Saka14%
Jurriën Timber14%
Gabriel Martinelli13%
Myles Lewis-Skelly11%
Gabriel Magalhães10%
Christian Nørgaard10%
Mikel Merino9%
Eberechi Eze8%
Ben White7%
Viktor Gyökeres6%
Riccardo Calafiori6%
Piero Hincapié5%
Noni Madueke5%
Gabriel Jesus4%
Martín Zubimendi4%
William Saliba2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Max Dowman0%
Marli Salmon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Viktor Gyökeres24%
Bukayo Saka18%
Leandro Trossard16%
Eberechi Eze16%
Max Dowman15%
Gabriel Jesus15%
Mikel Merino12%
Noni Madueke10%
Kai Havertz9%
Ethan Nwaneri8%
Gabriel Martinelli8%
Martin Ødegaard6%
Jurriën Timber5%
Declan Rice4%
Martín Zubimendi4%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Gabriel Magalhães2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Ben White0%
William Saliba0%
Christian Nørgaard0%
Piero Hincapié0%
Myles Lewis-Skelly0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Marli Salmon0%
Chelsea
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
João Pedro67%
Cole Palmer67%
Pedro Neto33%
Morgan Rogers33%
Roméo Lavia33%
Reece James0%
Maxence Lacroix0%
Malo Gusto0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Jorrel Hato0%
Josh Acheampong0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Reece James33%
Roméo Lavia33%
Pedro Neto0%
João Pedro0%
Morgan Rogers0%
Maxence Lacroix0%
Cole Palmer0%
Malo Gusto0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Jorrel Hato0%
Josh Acheampong0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
João Pedro67%
Morgan Rogers33%
Maxence Lacroix33%
Cole Palmer33%
Malo Gusto33%
Jorrel Hato33%
Pedro Neto0%
Reece James0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Roméo Lavia0%
Josh Acheampong0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
João Pedro67%
Cole Palmer67%
Pedro Neto0%
Morgan Rogers0%
Reece James0%
Maxence Lacroix0%
Malo Gusto0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Roméo Lavia0%
Jorrel Hato0%
Josh Acheampong0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Arsenal and Chelsea have a similar squad value (both €1406m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Arsenal's attack is €6m less valuable than Chelsea's (€608m vs €614m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Arsenal's midfield is €12m more valuable than Chelsea's (€290m vs €278m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Arsenal's defence is €6m less valuable than Chelsea's (€508m vs €514m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Hull
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham