Arys are poised to lift the home advantage with a 46 % chance of victory, while the draw sits at 23 % and Aktobe Jas win probability is 32 %. The model favours a home win, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 8.8 % probability. Expected total goals hover at 3.8, with a 20 % chance that the match will finish with exactly three goals. Arys, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, average 1.18 goals scored and 1.73 conceded, whereas Aktobe Jas, on the road, average 4.33 scored and 1.67 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (96.0 %), Under 6.5 (90.9 %), Away under 3.5 goals (90.2 %), Over 1.5 (90.1 %), Home over 0.5 goals (87.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (84.3 %), Home +2 handicap (83.7 %) and Away over 0.5 goals (82.3 %). The recent form shows Arys coming off a draw, while Aktobe Jas arrive after a win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arys win
50.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas win
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Arys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
2.40
1.29
1.86
0.75
2.88
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
3.25
1.00
2.67
0.80
3.60
vs Similar (21)
0.95
2.19
1.20
1.80
0.73
2.55
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe Jas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
2.73
0.93
3.00
1.60
2.47
vs Stronger (25)
0.92
2.96
0.92
3.23
0.92
2.67
vs Similar (5)
3.00
1.60
1.00
1.50
4.33
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.2%
Under 1.5
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
73.3%
Under 2.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
52.9%
Under 3.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
72.1%
No
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.6%
2-1
8.6%
2-2
7.0%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
6.3%
2-0
5.3%
3-2
5.1%
1-0
4.1%
Arys goals ↓
Aktobe Jas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.0%
2.8%
2.9%
1.6%
0.6%
1
4.1%
8.6%
6.4%
3.4%
1.4%
2
5.3%
8.6%
7.0%
3.8%
1.5%
3
3.9%
6.3%
5.1%
2.8%
1.1%
4
2.1%
3.4%
2.8%
1.5%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arys goals (down), columns = Aktobe Jas goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Arys is 0.12 points better than Aktobe Jas in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Arys is 0.25 goals worse than Aktobe Jas in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Arys is 1.25 goals better than Aktobe Jas in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 2.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Arys or Draw
72.2%
Avg Implied -
50%
22%
28%
covers Arys + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arys or Aktobe Jas
78.0%
Avg Implied -
50%
22%
28%
covers Arys + Aktobe Jas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Aktobe Jas
49.9%
Avg Implied -
50%
22%
28%
covers Draw + Aktobe Jas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Arys over/under 0.5
Over
88.8%
Under
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5
Over
64.4%
Under
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5
Over
37.5%
Under
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 3.5
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5
Over
80.2%
Under
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5
Over
48.2%
Under
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5
Over
22.2%
Under
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 3.5
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Arys, so a minus line means Arys give that many goals of a start and Aktobe Jas receive them. At -1, Arys must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Arys win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Arys)
Arys -2
15.4%
Draw -2
15.2%
Aktobe Jas +2
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Arys)
Arys -1
30.6%
Draw -1
19.6%
Aktobe Jas +1
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Arys)
Arys +1
72.2%
Draw +1
14.3%
Aktobe Jas -1
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Arys)
Arys +2
86.4%
Draw +2
8.3%
Aktobe Jas -2
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.97
0.50
0.71
0.25
1.19
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.50
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.60
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.81
0.40
0.60
0.36
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe Jas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.07
0.33
1.20
0.27
0.93
vs Stronger (25)
0.28
1.12
0.31
1.31
0.25
0.92
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.80
0.50
0.50
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arys over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.43
0.79
1.14
0.50
1.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.75
0.67
1.33
0.80
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.57
1.38
0.80
1.20
0.36
1.55
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe Jas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.67
0.60
1.80
1.33
1.53
vs Stronger (25)
0.64
1.84
0.62
1.92
0.67
1.75
vs Similar (5)
2.60
0.80
0.50
1.00
4.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arys over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Karagandy
Akademiya Ontustik
Sport Academy Kairat
Turan Turkistan
Taraz
Kaspij Aktau 2
Ekibastuz
Astana II
Jaiyq
Khan Tengri
Yelimay Semey 2
Tobol 2