Arys, returning from a recent defeat, faces Ekibastuz in a match that the model predicts will be high-scoring, with an average of 3.2 goals. The most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.2% probability. The model favours a home win, with a 46% chance, while draws and away wins are 25% and 29% respectively. Arys’ home form shows an average of 1.18 goals scored and 1.73 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Ekibastuz, playing away, averages 0.83 goals scored and 2.75 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.0%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.7%), Under 6.5 (95.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.3%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (92.9%) and Under 5.5 (89.0%) with a 1% edge.
Results analysis
Arys, riding a win-run, faced Ekibastuz after a string of defeats for the visitors. The model’s favourite was a Home win, with a 46% probability, and it proved right as Arys triumphed 3-1. The predicted 3-goal total came true, and the most likely scoreline of 1-1 was not reached, but the overall outcome matched expectations. The model’s selections dominated the match: Under 7.5 (98.2%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.5%) hit, Under 6.5 (95.3%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (94.3%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (89.6%) hit, and Under 5.5 (89.0%) hit. Only Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.8%) missed, confirming the model’s overall accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arys win✓ Hit
45.7%
Avg Implied 33.5% · @ 2.67
Edge
+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.80
10Bet
2.75
Unibet
2.45
Draw✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.60
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Unibet
3.40
Ekibastuz win✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied 41.7% · @ 2.14
Edge
-12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.32
10Bet
2.05
Betfair
2.05
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Arys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
2.43
1.14
1.93
0.75
2.88
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
3.25
1.00
2.67
0.80
3.60
vs Similar (21)
0.86
2.24
1.00
1.90
0.73
2.55
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekibastuz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
2.30
1.69
2.12
1.21
2.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.33
2.41
1.73
2.13
0.83
2.75
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
1.00
-
-
3.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.4%
@ 1.11+1.2%
Under 1.5
15.6%
@ 5.50-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.11
Under
Betfair
5.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.8%
@ 1.44-1.1%
Under 2.5
37.2%
@ 2.54+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Under
Betfair
2.60
Unibet
2.48
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.6%
@ 2.13-2.1%
Under 3.5
59.4%
@ 1.59+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.20
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Under
Unibet
1.61
Betfair
1.60
10Bet
1.55
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.6%
@ 1.40-1.7%
No
35.4%
@ 2.75+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.40
No
Betfair
2.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%@ 7.00+4.1%
2-1
9.2%@ 9.25+3.9%
1-2
7.2%@ 7.75+0.9%
2-2
6.6%@ 9.50+1.4%
2-0
6.4%@ 15.00+3.2%
1-0
6.1%@ 12.50+2.2%
3-1 ✓
5.6%@ 16.00+2.5%
0-0
4.9%@ 16.00+1.9%
Arys goals ↓
Ekibastuz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
4.6%
4.0%
1.9%
0.7%
1
6.1%
11%
7.2%
3.4%
1.2%
2
6.4%
9.2%
6.6%
3.1%
1.1%
3
3.9%
5.6%
4.0%
1.9%
0.7%
4
1.8%
2.5%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Arys goals (down), columns = Ekibastuz goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Arys is 0.29 points worse than Ekibastuz in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Arys is 0.71 goals worse than Ekibastuz in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Arys is 0.52 goals better than Ekibastuz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 2.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Arys or Draw✓ Hit
70.6%
Avg Implied 58.2% · @ 1.57
Edge
+12.4%
46%
25%
29%
covers Arys + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.67
10Bet
1.60
Unibet
1.44
Arys or Ekibastuz✓ Hit
75.1%
Avg Implied 75.7% · @ 1.21
Edge
-0.5%
46%
25%
29%
covers Arys + Ekibastuz
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Draw or Ekibastuz✗ Miss
54.3%
Avg Implied 66.2% · @ 1.38
Edge
-11.9%
46%
25%
29%
covers Draw + Ekibastuz
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Arys over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.7%
Under
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
54.1%
Under
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
27.3%
Under
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.0%
Under
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
41.7%
Under
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Arys, so a minus line means Arys give that many goals of a start and Ekibastuz receive them. At -1, Arys must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Arys win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Arys)Actual: Draw
Arys -2
11.4%
Draw -2
14.1%
Ekibastuz +2
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Arys)Actual: Arys
Arys -1
25.5%
@ 5.50+9.3%
Draw -1
20.2%
@ 4.50+0.3%
Ekibastuz +1
54.3%
@ 1.40-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
5.50
Draw
10Bet
4.50
Away
10Bet
1.40
Handicap +1 (Arys)Actual: Arys
Arys +1
70.6%
@ 1.67+16.9%
Draw +1
15.7%
@ 4.20-5.7%
Ekibastuz -1
13.7%
@ 3.60-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.67
Draw
Betfair
4.20
Away
Betfair
3.60
Handicap +2 (Arys)Actual: Arys
Arys +2
86.3%
Draw +2
8.7%
Ekibastuz -2
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Arys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.00
0.50
0.79
0.25
1.19
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.50
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.60
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.86
0.40
0.70
0.36
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekibastuz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.90
0.81
0.62
0.43
1.21
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.96
0.87
0.67
0.17
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
-
-
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
67.2%
@ 1.20-9.8%
Under 0.5
32.8%
@ 4.00+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.7%
@ 2.02-11.2%
Under 1.5
66.3%
@ 1.65+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
1.95
Under
10Bet
1.65
Betfair
1.65
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.8%
@ 4.80-7.4%
Under 2.5
88.2%
@ 1.14+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
Under
Betfair
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Arys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.0%
Under
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.4%
Under
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Arys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.43
0.64
1.14
0.50
1.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.75
0.67
1.33
0.80
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.48
1.38
0.60
1.20
0.36
1.55
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekibastuz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.40
0.88
1.50
0.79
1.29
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.78
1.44
0.87
1.47
0.67
1.42
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.2%
Under 0.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
51.4%
Under 1.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
21.1%
Under 2.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Arys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.3%
Under
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.7%
Under
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.1%
Under
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.0%
1.07
Betfair
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.14
Betfair
1.14
-
-
-
-
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.4%
1.11
Betfair
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
77.4%
1.23
Unibet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.1%
1.21
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
-
-
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
70.6%
1.57
Betfair
1.67
10Bet
1.60
Unibet
1.44
-
-
+12.4%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
70.6%
1.67
Betfair
1.67
-
-
-
-
+16.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Karagandy
Akademiya Ontustik
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Astana II
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Tobol 2