The model favours a home win, with Asane expected to edge out hodd 46% to 28% for a 26% chance of a draw. The average goal tally sits at three, but the most likely total is two, a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.1% chance. Asane’s home form shows they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded against similar opposition, while hodd, playing away, averages only 1.0 goal scored and 2.25 conceded to comparable teams. The model’s selection list contains only one pick: Over 1.5, with an 81.4% probability, though the result will be a miss. The final score of 1-0 confirms the home win prediction. Recent form highlights Asane’s return to a draw after a 2-2 stalemate with Egersund, whereas hodd comes off a win, 2-1 over Stabaek, and a strong run of four victories. These dynamics suggest Asane will likely maintain control, but the match could still see a single goal from each side.
Results analysis
Asane, coming off a draw, kept their home form steady while hodd, fresh from a win, struggled to translate their away form into goals. The match finished 1-0, a home win that matched the model’s pick and its 46% probability. The model had forecast a total of 3 goals, but the actual total of 1 was well below the expected 3, with the most likely scoreline 2-1 falling short. The only suggested pick was Over 1.5, with an 81.4% chance, which missed as the game produced fewer than two goals. The model’s prediction of a home win was correct.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Asane win✓ Hit
45.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
hodd win✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Asane
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.80
1.43
1.57
1.19
2.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
2.27
1.00
1.80
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (19)
1.58
1.53
1.67
1.44
1.50
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (hodd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
hodd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.29
0.90
0.80
1.09
1.73
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.33
0.33
vs Similar (15)
0.93
1.53
0.86
0.71
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
24% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Asane) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.0%
Under 2.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.6%
Under 3.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.8%
No
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
2-1
9.3%
1-0 ✓
7.3%
1-2
7.2%
2-0
7.1%
2-2
6.1%
0-0
6.0%
0-1
5.3%
Asane goals ↓
hodd goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
5.3%
4.2%
1.8%
0.6%
1
7.3%
12%
7.2%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.1%
9.3%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
3
4.1%
5.3%
3.5%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.7%
2.3%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Asane goals (down), columns = hodd goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fredrikstad
2.13
KFUM Oslo
1.93
Kristiansund BK
1.69
Kongsvinger
1.68
Bryne
1.50
Start
1.48
Sogndal
1.43
Ranheim
1.33
Moss
1.27
Raufoss
1.27
Asane
1.23
Mjondalen
1.23
Sandnes ULF
1.23
hodd
1.10
jerv
1.03
Skeid
0.47
Asane is 0.13 points better than hodd in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 1.10).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kristiansund BK
1.91
Kongsvinger
1.77
KFUM Oslo
1.70
Fredrikstad
1.67
Start
1.58
Sogndal
1.50
Sandnes ULF
1.40
Bryne
1.38
Asane
1.37
jerv
1.33
Mjondalen
1.30
Moss
1.23
Ranheim
1.20
Raufoss
1.17
hodd
0.97
Skeid
0.80
Asane is 0.40 goals better than hodd in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fredrikstad
0.77
KFUM Oslo
1.03
Bryne
1.16
Raufoss
1.20
Start
1.26
hodd
1.27
Kristiansund BK
1.28
Moss
1.33
Kongsvinger
1.39
Mjondalen
1.40
Asane
1.47
Sogndal
1.50
Sandnes ULF
1.50
Ranheim
1.77
jerv
1.97
Skeid
2.07
Asane is 0.20 goals worse than hodd in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.27).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Asane
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.64
0.57
0.75
0.94
vs Stronger (11)
0.09
0.91
0.00
0.60
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (19)
1.05
0.68
1.00
0.56
1.10
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (hodd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
hodd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.52
0.38
0.60
0.30
0.45
0.45
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (15)
0.33
0.33
0.43
0.14
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
62% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Asane) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Asane over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asane over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asane over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Asane
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.03
0.79
1.00
0.44
1.06
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
1.36
1.00
1.20
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.84
0.67
0.89
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (hodd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
hodd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.48
0.90
0.30
0.50
0.64
1.27
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.33
0.33
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.60
1.20
0.43
0.57
0.75
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
48% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Asane) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Asane over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asane over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asane over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRE (25)
€15m
KB (21)
€13m
STA (25)
€9m
KO (24)
€8m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
Asane and hodd have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KB (6)
€5m
FRE (5)
€5m
KON (10)
€3m
KO (8)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Asane and hodd have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KB (6)
€4m
STA (8)
€3m
FRE (4)
€3m
KO (5)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
Asane and hodd have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRE (16)
€8m
KO (11)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
KB (9)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
Asane and hodd have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Norway: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →