This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.83
1.67
0.87
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
1.00
1.25
1.25
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (20)
1.50
0.75
1.82
0.73
1.11
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ascoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
57.1%
Under 1.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
28.8%
Under 2.5
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.0%
Under 3.5
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
38.2%
No
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.7%
1-1 ✓
14.8%
0-1
13.6%
1-0
12.5%
0-2
7.3%
1-2
6.5%
2-0
6.2%
2-1
6.0%
Ascoli goals ↓
Cittadella goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
14%
7.3%
2.4%
0.6%
1
13%
15%
6.5%
2.1%
0.5%
2
6.2%
6.0%
2.9%
1.0%
0.2%
3
1.9%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ascoli goals (down), columns = Cittadella goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Brescia
1.86
Lecce
1.83
Palermo
1.75
Benevento
1.67
Pescara
1.53
Hellas Verona
1.44
Spezia
1.42
Cittadella
1.42
Perugia
1.39
Cremonese
1.36
Cosenza
1.28
Ascoli
1.19
Foggia
1.19
Crotone
1.19
Livorno
1.08
Salernitana
1.06
Venezia
1.06
Padova
0.86
Carpi
0.81
Ascoli is 0.22 points worse than Cittadella in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Brescia
1.92
Lecce
1.83
Benevento
1.69
Palermo
1.58
Spezia
1.47
Pescara
1.39
Perugia
1.36
Hellas Verona
1.36
Cittadella
1.36
Foggia
1.22
Salernitana
1.14
Ascoli
1.11
Crotone
1.11
Carpi
1.08
Livorno
1.06
Cremonese
1.03
Padova
1.00
Venezia
0.97
Cosenza
0.94
Ascoli is 0.25 goals worse than Cittadella in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cremonese
0.92
Palermo
1.06
Cittadella
1.06
Brescia
1.17
Cosenza
1.17
Crotone
1.17
Lecce
1.25
Benevento
1.25
Pescara
1.28
Spezia
1.28
Hellas Verona
1.28
Venezia
1.28
Foggia
1.36
Perugia
1.36
Padova
1.36
Livorno
1.42
Ascoli
1.56
Salernitana
1.58
Carpi
1.86
Ascoli is 0.50 goals worse than Cittadella in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.06).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ascoli
For 4.6 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.7 · Against 2.5 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.2 · Against 18.3 · Total 34.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cittadella
For 6.7 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 21.2 · Against 13.0 · Total 34.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ascoli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.8
9.3
5.1
5.2
4.9
31.8
31.7
31.9
vs Stronger (17)
8.2
8.7
7.4
5.1
4.8
5.6
30.4
31.5
28.7
vs Similar (33)
9.5
8.8
10.1
5.1
5.5
4.7
32.5
31.8
33.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
38%
32%
44%
80%
80%
80%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
62%
68%
56%
20%
20%
20%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.2
10.2
5.0
4.8
5.2
32.5
32.4
32.6
vs Stronger (16)
10.8
11.4
10.2
4.3
5.0
3.6
32.8
33.1
32.4
vs Similar (34)
9.9
9.7
10.1
5.3
4.6
5.9
32.3
32.0
32.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
60%
64%
74%
72%
76%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
38%
40%
36%
26%
28%
24%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Ascoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Livorno
11.6
Cremonese
10.8
Venezia
10.5
Foggia
10.4
Crotone
10.4
Hellas Verona
10.2
Spezia
10.2
Cittadella
10.2
Pescara
10.1
Brescia
10.0
Cosenza
10.0
Padova
10.0
Salernitana
9.8
Palermo
9.7
Benevento
9.6
Lecce
9.5
Carpi
9.2
Perugia
9.0
Ascoli
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Padova
5.3
Livorno
5.2
Ascoli
5.1
Cosenza
5.1
Cittadella
5.0
Lecce
4.9
Cremonese
4.8
Brescia
4.7
Benevento
4.7
Hellas Verona
4.6
Pescara
4.6
Salernitana
4.6
Venezia
4.5
Perugia
4.5
Palermo
4.3
Spezia
4.1
Foggia
4.1
Carpi
4.1
Crotone
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cittadella
32.5
Brescia
32.3
Ascoli
31.8
Perugia
31.1
Carpi
31.0
Salernitana
30.9
Padova
30.9
Venezia
30.7
Cremonese
30.3
Cosenza
29.8
Lecce
29.7
Spezia
29.5
Palermo
29.4
Pescara
29.4
Foggia
29.2
Livorno
28.6
Benevento
28.0
Hellas Verona
26.6
Crotone
26.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
49.6%
Under 9.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
81.0%
Under 3.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
97.6%
Under 21.5
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ascoli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.56
0.44
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.40
0.20
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.65
0.73
0.55
0.67
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.40
0.67
0.40
0.33
0.40
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.60
0.75
0.75
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.30
0.64
0.27
0.56
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Ascoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ascoli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ascoli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ascoli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ascoli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.69
0.44
0.29
0.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.80
0.80
0.20
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.60
0.64
0.55
0.22
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
1.00
0.47
0.53
0.40
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.40
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.33
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.45
1.18
0.45
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Ascoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ascoli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ascoli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ascoli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ascoli · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andrea Silipo67%
Gabriele Gori33%
Simone D'Uffizi33%
Marcos Curado0%
Samuele Damiani0%
Don Bolsius0%
Abdoul Guiebre0%
Nicholas Rizzo0%
Samuele Vitale0%
Tommaso Milanese0%
Giovanni Corradini0%
Andrea Oliveri0%
Sergiu Perciun0%
Amine Chakir0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Abdoul Guiebre67%
Giovanni Corradini67%
Simone D'Uffizi67%
Gabriele Gori33%
Marcos Curado33%
Samuele Damiani0%
Don Bolsius0%
Nicholas Rizzo0%
Andrea Silipo0%
Samuele Vitale0%
Tommaso Milanese0%
Andrea Oliveri0%
Sergiu Perciun0%
Amine Chakir0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Samuele Damiani33%
Simone D'Uffizi33%
Amine Chakir33%
Gabriele Gori0%
Marcos Curado0%
Don Bolsius0%
Abdoul Guiebre0%
Nicholas Rizzo0%
Andrea Silipo0%
Samuele Vitale0%
Tommaso Milanese0%
Giovanni Corradini0%
Andrea Oliveri0%
Sergiu Perciun0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Amine Chakir67%
Andrea Silipo33%
Gabriele Gori0%
Marcos Curado0%
Samuele Damiani0%
Don Bolsius0%
Abdoul Guiebre0%
Nicholas Rizzo0%
Samuele Vitale0%
Tommaso Milanese0%
Giovanni Corradini0%
Simone D'Uffizi0%
Andrea Oliveri0%
Sergiu Perciun0%
Cittadella · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luca Pandolfi24%
Orji Okwonkwo19%
Alessio Vita12%
Simone Rabbi11%
Claudio Cassano10%
Simone Tronchin9%
Riccardo Palmieri8%
Lorenzo Carissoni6%
Mario Ravasio5%
Federico Casolari4%
Jacopo Desogus4%
Edoardo Masciangelo3%
Francesco Amatucci3%
Luca Maniero0%
Simone Branca0%
Davide Diaw0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Stefano Negro0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Alessandro Salvi0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Andrea Tessiore0%
Davide Voltan0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Andrea Magrassi0%
Stefano Piccinini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco D'Alessio0%
Andrea Cecchetto0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stefano Piccinini60%
Riccardo Palmieri38%
Federico Casolari35%
Simone Branca32%
Elio Capradossi31%
Matteo Angeli29%
Andrea Cecchetto25%
Alessandro Salvi24%
Simone Tronchin22%
Nicola Pavan21%
Francesco Amatucci21%
Simone Rabbi19%
Luca Pandolfi18%
Alessio Rizza17%
Alessio Vita15%
Stefano Negro14%
Mario Ravasio14%
Lorenzo Carissoni14%
Edoardo Masciangelo14%
Jacopo Desogus12%
Andrea Tessiore12%
Andrea Magrassi11%
Luca Maniero10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Francesco D'Alessio8%
Orji Okwonkwo6%
Elhan Kastrati3%
Davide Diaw0%
Davide Voltan0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrea Magrassi11%
Mario Ravasio10%
Simone Tronchin9%
Edoardo Masciangelo8%
Francesco D'Alessio8%
Orji Okwonkwo6%
Alessandro Salvi6%
Simone Rabbi6%
Jacopo Desogus4%
Andrea Tessiore4%
Alessio Vita3%
Lorenzo Carissoni3%
Luca Maniero0%
Simone Branca0%
Davide Diaw0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Stefano Negro0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Davide Voltan0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Riccardo Palmieri0%
Luca Pandolfi0%
Stefano Piccinini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco Amatucci0%
Federico Casolari0%
Claudio Cassano0%
Andrea Cecchetto0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luca Pandolfi33%
Orji Okwonkwo19%
Mario Ravasio14%
Simone Rabbi8%
Riccardo Palmieri8%
Alessandro Salvi6%
Alessio Vita6%
Jacopo Desogus4%
Francesco Amatucci3%
Luca Maniero0%
Simone Branca0%
Davide Diaw0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Stefano Negro0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Edoardo Masciangelo0%
Andrea Tessiore0%
Davide Voltan0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Andrea Magrassi0%
Stefano Piccinini0%
Simone Tronchin0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco D'Alessio0%
Federico Casolari0%
Claudio Cassano0%
Andrea Cecchetto0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Brescia
Lecce
Palermo
Benevento
Pescara
Hellas Verona
Spezia
Perugia
Cremonese
Cosenza
Venezia
Salernitana
Padova