Ashdod are tipped to edge Hapoel Rishon LeZion to a home win, a result the model deems most likely. The encounter is expected to see three goals on average, with a 2-goal total the most probable. The single scoreline the model predicts with the highest certainty is 1-1, carrying a 11.5 % chance. Ashdod’s home form shows they average 1.27 goals scored and 1.73 conceded against similarly strong opposition, while Hapoel Rishon LeZion, on the road, averages 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded. The model’s picks include Under 7.5 goals at 98.8 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.4 %, Under 6.5 at 96.7 %, Home +2 handicap at 91.7 %, Under 5.5 at 91.7 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 89.9 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 87.7 %, and Home over 0.5 goals at 84.8 %. The probabilities for the match outcome are Home win 55 %, Draw 24 %, Away win 21 %. Ashdod entered the match after a win, while Hapoel Rishon LeZion come off a two-game winning streak.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ashdod win
54.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion win
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ashdod
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.67
1.14
2.00
0.94
1.38
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.88
1.00
2.25
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.59
1.20
1.90
0.92
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Rishon LeZion) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.60
1.53
1.60
1.20
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.37
1.60
1.53
1.60
1.20
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ashdod) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.9%
Under 1.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.3%
Under 2.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.9%
Under 3.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.8%
No
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.9%
1-0
8.4%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
6.1%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.5%
Ashdod goals ↓
Hapoel Rishon LeZion goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
4.6%
3.1%
1.2%
0.3%
1
8.4%
12%
5.9%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.9%
9.9%
5.5%
2.0%
0.6%
3
5.5%
6.1%
3.4%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.6%
2.9%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ashdod goals (down), columns = Hapoel Rishon LeZion goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Herzliya
1.68
Ashdod
1.64
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.58
Bnei Yehuda
1.54
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.51
Kiryat Yam SC
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.34
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.34
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.32
Hapoel Afula
1.22
Kafr Qasim
1.11
Ironi Modi'in
1.08
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Ashdod is 0.32 points better than Hapoel Rishon LeZion in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.81
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.78
Ashdod
1.66
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.60
Maccabi Herzliya
1.49
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Kiryat Yam SC
1.30
Bnei Yehuda
1.24
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.14
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Afula
1.05
Ironi Modi'in
1.00
Ashdod is 0.31 goals better than Hapoel Rishon LeZion in terms of goals scored per game (1.66 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ashdod
1.11
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.16
Kiryat Yam SC
1.16
Bnei Yehuda
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.19
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.19
Ironi Modi'in
1.27
Hapoel Acre
1.30
Kafr Qasim
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.57
Hapoel Afula
1.57
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Ashdod is 0.35 goals better than Hapoel Rishon LeZion in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.46).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ashdod or Draw
78.7%
Avg Implied -
54%
25%
21%
covers Ashdod + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ashdod or Hapoel Rishon LeZion
75.4%
Avg Implied -
54%
25%
21%
covers Ashdod + Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hapoel Rishon LeZion
46.0%
Avg Implied -
54%
25%
21%
covers Draw + Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ashdod over/under 0.5
Over
84.6%
Under
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ashdod over/under 1.5
Over
55.8%
Under
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ashdod over/under 2.5
Over
28.9%
Under
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ashdod over/under 3.5
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 0.5
Over
67.1%
Under
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 1.5
Over
30.6%
Under
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 2.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ashdod, so a minus line means Ashdod give that many goals of a start and Hapoel Rishon LeZion receive them. At -1, Ashdod must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ashdod win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ashdod)
Ashdod -2
14.8%
Draw -2
16.9%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion +2
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ashdod)
Ashdod -1
31.7%
Draw -1
22.4%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion +1
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ashdod)
Ashdod +1
78.7%
Draw +1
12.9%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion -1
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ashdod)
Ashdod +2
91.5%
Draw +2
6.0%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion -2
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ashdod
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.71
0.79
0.25
0.56
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.62
0.75
0.75
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.68
0.70
0.80
0.25
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Rishon LeZion) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.53
0.60
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.40
0.60
0.53
0.60
0.27
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ashdod) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ashdod over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ashdod over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ashdod over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ashdod
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.00
0.43
1.21
0.69
0.81
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.25
0.25
1.50
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.91
0.50
1.10
0.67
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Rishon LeZion) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.93
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ashdod) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ashdod over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ashdod over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ashdod over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ashdod · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jean Batoum31%
Eugene Ansah29%
Nehoray Dabush29%
Karim Kimvuidi25%
Eylon Almog20%
Hayford Boahen20%
Arial Mendy17%
Avishai Cohen17%
Ibrahim Diakite14%
Ilay Hajaj12%
Ori Azo11%
Ilay Tamam7%
Mohamad Amer7%
Roy Gordana6%
Nir Bitton0%
Timothy Awany0%
Lenny Nangis0%
Karol Niemczycki0%
Or Dasa0%
Raz Meir0%
Tom Ben-Zaken0%
Stav Nachmani0%
Shalev Harush0%
Adir Levi0%
Noam Muche0%
Liav Farada0%
Ben Hadadi0%
Maor Yashilirmak0%
Victor Ochayi0%
Asaf Arania0%
Elia Gethon0%
Emmanuel Agyei0%
Reem Tal0%
Amitay Yamin0%
Amit Danziger0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Avishai Cohen67%
Raz Meir67%
Adir Levi50%
Ori Azo44%
Eugene Ansah33%
Amit Danziger33%
Roy Gordana29%
Victor Ochayi29%
Mohamad Amer27%
Timothy Awany25%
Tom Ben-Zaken25%
Ilay Tamam20%
Shalev Harush20%
Amitay Yamin20%
Karim Kimvuidi19%
Nir Bitton17%
Arial Mendy17%
Lenny Nangis17%
Elia Gethon17%
Emmanuel Agyei17%
Nehoray Dabush14%
Ibrahim Diakite14%
Ilay Hajaj12%
Noam Muche12%
Maor Yashilirmak12%
Karol Niemczycki0%
Eylon Almog0%
Or Dasa0%
Stav Nachmani0%
Liav Farada0%
Ben Hadadi0%
Asaf Arania0%
Jean Batoum0%
Reem Tal0%
Hayford Boahen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Ben-Zaken25%
Adir Levi25%
Eugene Ansah24%
Ilay Tamam20%
Roy Gordana18%
Nir Bitton17%
Lenny Nangis17%
Jean Batoum15%
Karim Kimvuidi12%
Ori Azo11%
Noam Muche6%
Maor Yashilirmak6%
Timothy Awany0%
Arial Mendy0%
Karol Niemczycki0%
Eylon Almog0%
Avishai Cohen0%
Or Dasa0%
Raz Meir0%
Stav Nachmani0%
Shalev Harush0%
Ilay Hajaj0%
Liav Farada0%
Ben Hadadi0%
Nehoray Dabush0%
Victor Ochayi0%
Asaf Arania0%
Mohamad Amer0%
Elia Gethon0%
Emmanuel Agyei0%
Ibrahim Diakite0%
Reem Tal0%
Amitay Yamin0%
Amit Danziger0%
Hayford Boahen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eugene Ansah33%
Hayford Boahen20%
Avishai Cohen17%
Jean Batoum15%
Mohamad Amer7%
Roy Gordana6%
Noam Muche6%
Nir Bitton0%
Timothy Awany0%
Arial Mendy0%
Lenny Nangis0%
Karol Niemczycki0%
Eylon Almog0%
Or Dasa0%
Raz Meir0%
Tom Ben-Zaken0%
Karim Kimvuidi0%
Ilay Tamam0%
Stav Nachmani0%
Shalev Harush0%
Adir Levi0%
Ilay Hajaj0%
Liav Farada0%
Ben Hadadi0%
Maor Yashilirmak0%
Nehoray Dabush0%
Victor Ochayi0%
Asaf Arania0%
Elia Gethon0%
Emmanuel Agyei0%
Ori Azo0%
Ibrahim Diakite0%
Reem Tal0%
Amitay Yamin0%
Amit Danziger0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (23)
€4m
BY (26)
€3m
MBR (18)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
KYS (24)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HR (18)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
HKS (14)
€2m
IM (21)
€1m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
Ashdod and Hapoel Rishon LeZion have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MBR (8)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
KYS (10)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HKS (7)
€1m
HR (6)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
IM (7)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
Ashdod and Hapoel Rishon LeZion have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BY (5)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HR (4)
€0m
KYS (6)
€0m
IM (6)
€0m
MBR (2)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HKS (2)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
Ashdod and Hapoel Rishon LeZion have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (9)
€1m
BY (12)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
HR (8)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
KYS (8)
€1m
HKS (5)
€0m
MKJ (4)
€0m
IM (8)
€0m
Ashdod and Hapoel Rishon LeZion have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Israel: Liga Leumit 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →
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Bnei Yehuda
Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Ra'anana
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Ironi Modi'in
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Kiryat Yam SC
Kafr Qasim
Maccabi Herzliya
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Maccabi Bnei Raina
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
Hapoel Acre