ASIL Lysi, fresh from a 1-4 loss, will look to rebound against Doxa, who have returned from two straight defeats. The model favours a home win, with a 52% chance, a 24% chance of a draw and a 24% chance of an away victory. The expected total is 3.2 goals, centring on a 3-goal match; the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.9% probability. ASIL Lysi averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded at home against weaker opposition, while Doxa, playing away against stronger teams, averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.42 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.0%), Under 6.5 (95.5%), Home +2 handicap (89.8%), Under 5.5 (89.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (86.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (86.5%) and Home over 0.5 goals (85.7%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
ASIL Lysi win
47.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Doxa win
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ASIL Lysi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.70
1.13
1.40
1.13
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.55
1.00
1.22
0.82
1.82
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
2.00
1.33
1.67
2.00
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Doxa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doxa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.17
0.75
1.00
1.79
1.36
vs Stronger (23)
1.30
1.13
0.82
0.82
1.75
1.42
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.29
0.60
1.40
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (ASIL Lysi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.8%
Under 1.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.3%
Under 2.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.9%
Under 3.5
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.1%
No
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.2%
1-0
6.9%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
6.2%
3-1
5.7%
0-0
5.5%
ASIL Lysi goals ↓
Doxa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
4.8%
3.8%
1.7%
0.6%
1
6.9%
12%
6.9%
3.0%
1.0%
2
7.2%
9.5%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
3
4.3%
5.7%
3.7%
1.6%
0.5%
4
1.9%
2.6%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ASIL Lysi goals (down), columns = Doxa goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.66
Akritas
2.54
Enosis
2.44
PAEEK
1.59
Halkanoras
1.55
Doxa
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.41
Ermis
1.37
Polemidion
1.37
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.37
APEA
1.34
Spartakos Kitiou
1.34
Digenis Morphou
1.34
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.28
ASIL Lysi
1.07
MEAP Nisou
1.00
ASIL Lysi is 0.38 points worse than Doxa in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.62
Akritas
2.50
Enosis
2.40
Halkanoras
1.62
Digenis Morphou
1.55
PAEEK
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.45
Spartakos Kitiou
1.45
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
APEA
1.31
Doxa
1.17
ASIL Lysi
1.10
MEAP Nisou
1.07
Iraklis Yerolakkou
0.93
ASIL Lysi is 0.07 goals worse than Doxa in terms of goals scored per game (1.10 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ethnikos Achna
0.70
Akritas
0.73
Enosis
0.76
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.03
PAEEK
1.07
Doxa
1.21
Spartakos Kitiou
1.24
Halkanoras
1.28
APEA
1.31
Digenis Morphou
1.31
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
Ayia Napa
1.48
ASIL Lysi
1.72
MEAP Nisou
1.72
ASIL Lysi is 0.52 goals worse than Doxa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ASIL Lysi or Draw
73.0%
Avg Implied -
48%
25%
27%
covers ASIL Lysi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi or Doxa
74.9%
Avg Implied -
48%
25%
27%
covers ASIL Lysi + Doxa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Doxa
52.1%
Avg Implied -
48%
25%
27%
covers Draw + Doxa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
ASIL Lysi over/under 0.5
Over
83.5%
Under
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 1.5
Over
53.8%
Under
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 2.5
Over
27.0%
Under
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 3.5
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 0.5
Over
73.2%
Under
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 1.5
Over
37.9%
Under
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 2.5
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to ASIL Lysi, so a minus line means ASIL Lysi give that many goals of a start and Doxa receive them. At -1, ASIL Lysi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal ASIL Lysi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (ASIL Lysi)
ASIL Lysi -2
12.1%
Draw -2
14.8%
Doxa +2
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (ASIL Lysi)
ASIL Lysi -1
26.9%
Draw -1
21.0%
Doxa +1
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (ASIL Lysi)
ASIL Lysi +1
73.0%
Draw +1
15.0%
Doxa -1
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (ASIL Lysi)
ASIL Lysi +2
88.0%
Draw +2
7.9%
Doxa -2
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ASIL Lysi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.33
0.73
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.60
0.22
0.56
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Doxa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doxa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.38
0.50
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (23)
0.43
0.70
0.27
0.45
0.58
0.92
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.57
0.60
0.60
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (ASIL Lysi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ASIL Lysi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ASIL Lysi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.97
0.80
0.67
0.33
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.95
0.78
0.67
0.27
1.18
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
1.00
0.83
0.67
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Doxa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doxa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.38
0.50
1.21
0.50
vs Stronger (23)
0.87
0.43
0.55
0.36
1.17
0.50
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.71
0.00
0.80
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (ASIL Lysi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ASIL Lysi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doxa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Doxa · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nikola Trujić50%
Ernest Asante40%
Dimitar Velkovski20%
Marios Antoniadis0%
Mesca0%
Charis Kyriakou0%
Duško Trajčevski0%
Guessouma Fofana0%
Adil Nabi0%
Konstantinos Provydakis0%
Bryan Alceus0%
Simranjit Thandi0%
Omar Hani0%
Vangelis Kyriakou0%
Nicolai Skoglund0%
Aleksa Puric0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nikola Trujić75%
Mesca33%
Bryan Alceus25%
Marios Antoniadis20%
Duško Trajčevski20%
Ernest Asante20%
Simranjit Thandi20%
Dimitar Velkovski0%
Charis Kyriakou0%
Guessouma Fofana0%
Adil Nabi0%
Konstantinos Provydakis0%
Omar Hani0%
Vangelis Kyriakou0%
Nicolai Skoglund0%
Aleksa Puric0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Guessouma Fofana33%
Marios Antoniadis20%
Dimitar Velkovski20%
Mesca0%
Charis Kyriakou0%
Duško Trajčevski0%
Adil Nabi0%
Konstantinos Provydakis0%
Nikola Trujić0%
Ernest Asante0%
Bryan Alceus0%
Simranjit Thandi0%
Omar Hani0%
Vangelis Kyriakou0%
Nicolai Skoglund0%
Aleksa Puric0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nikola Trujić50%
Marios Antoniadis0%
Mesca0%
Dimitar Velkovski0%
Charis Kyriakou0%
Duško Trajčevski0%
Guessouma Fofana0%
Adil Nabi0%
Konstantinos Provydakis0%
Ernest Asante0%
Bryan Alceus0%
Simranjit Thandi0%
Omar Hani0%
Vangelis Kyriakou0%
Nicolai Skoglund0%
Aleksa Puric0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Cyprus: 2. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 2. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Enosis
Ayia Napa
Digenis Morphou
Spartakos Kitiou
Ethnikos Achna
Anagennisi Deryneia
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Halkanoras
Polemidion
APEA
Akritas
Ermis
PAEEK
MEAP Nisou