Defensive solidity will shape this tight encounter, as both sides have conceded more than they score against similar opponents. The model favours a home win, with a 35% chance, a draw at 33%, and an away win at 32%. The expected total is 2.0 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.9% probability. ASIL Lysi, playing at home, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.22 conceded, while Iraklis Yerolakkou, on the road, averages 0.6 scored and 0.6 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Under 5.5 (98.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.9%), Under 4.5 (94.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.4%), and Home under 2.5 goals (91.3%). ASIL Lysi is coming off a defeat, whereas Iraklis Yerolakkou is coming off a draw. The prediction points to a low-scoring 1-1 draw as the most probable outcome, yet the home side is slightly favoured to secure the win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
ASIL Lysi win
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou win
31.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ASIL Lysi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.70
1.13
1.40
1.13
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.55
1.00
1.22
0.82
1.82
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
2.00
1.33
1.67
2.00
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis Yerolakkou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.03
1.33
1.27
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.04
0.91
1.38
1.15
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
28% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (ASIL Lysi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
61.0%
Under 1.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
32.6%
Under 2.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
14.4%
Under 3.5
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.5%
No
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.9%
0-0
14.8%
1-0
12.5%
0-1
11.7%
2-0
7.2%
2-1
7.0%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
6.4%
ASIL Lysi goals ↓
Iraklis Yerolakkou goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
12%
6.4%
2.1%
0.5%
1
13%
15%
6.6%
2.1%
0.5%
2
7.2%
7.0%
3.4%
1.1%
0.3%
3
2.5%
2.4%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ASIL Lysi goals (down), columns = Iraklis Yerolakkou goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.66
Akritas
2.54
Enosis
2.44
PAEEK
1.59
Halkanoras
1.55
Doxa
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.41
Ermis
1.37
Polemidion
1.37
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.37
Digenis Morphou
1.34
APEA
1.34
Spartakos Kitiou
1.34
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.28
ASIL Lysi
1.07
MEAP Nisou
1.00
ASIL Lysi is 0.21 points worse than Iraklis Yerolakkou in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.62
Akritas
2.50
Enosis
2.40
Halkanoras
1.62
Digenis Morphou
1.55
PAEEK
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.45
Spartakos Kitiou
1.45
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
APEA
1.31
Doxa
1.17
ASIL Lysi
1.10
MEAP Nisou
1.07
Iraklis Yerolakkou
0.93
ASIL Lysi is 0.17 goals better than Iraklis Yerolakkou in terms of goals scored per game (1.10 vs 0.93).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ethnikos Achna
0.70
Akritas
0.73
Enosis
0.76
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.03
PAEEK
1.07
Doxa
1.21
Spartakos Kitiou
1.24
Halkanoras
1.28
Digenis Morphou
1.31
APEA
1.31
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
Ayia Napa
1.48
ASIL Lysi
1.72
MEAP Nisou
1.72
ASIL Lysi is 0.69 goals worse than Iraklis Yerolakkou in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ASIL Lysi or Draw
68.3%
Avg Implied -
35%
33%
32%
covers ASIL Lysi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi or Iraklis Yerolakkou
66.5%
Avg Implied -
35%
33%
32%
covers ASIL Lysi + Iraklis Yerolakkou
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Iraklis Yerolakkou
65.2%
Avg Implied -
35%
33%
32%
covers Draw + Iraklis Yerolakkou
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
ASIL Lysi over/under 0.5
Over
64.5%
Under
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 1.5
Over
27.7%
Under
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 2.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 0.5
Over
62.3%
Under
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 1.5
Over
25.5%
Under
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 2.5
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to ASIL Lysi, so a minus line means ASIL Lysi give that many goals of a start and Iraklis Yerolakkou receive them. At -1, ASIL Lysi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal ASIL Lysi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (ASIL Lysi)
ASIL Lysi -2
4.1%
Draw -2
9.9%
Iraklis Yerolakkou +2
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (ASIL Lysi)
ASIL Lysi -1
14.0%
Draw -1
20.8%
Iraklis Yerolakkou +1
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (ASIL Lysi)
ASIL Lysi +1
68.3%
Draw +1
19.5%
Iraklis Yerolakkou -1
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (ASIL Lysi)
ASIL Lysi +2
87.8%
Draw +2
8.8%
Iraklis Yerolakkou -2
3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ASIL Lysi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.33
0.73
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.60
0.22
0.56
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis Yerolakkou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.41
0.59
0.53
0.87
0.29
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.57
0.54
0.77
0.30
0.30
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.50
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
52% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (ASIL Lysi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ASIL Lysi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ASIL Lysi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.97
0.80
0.67
0.33
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.95
0.78
0.67
0.27
1.18
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
1.00
0.83
0.67
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis Yerolakkou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.52
0.45
0.80
0.40
0.21
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.35
0.85
0.38
0.30
0.30
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.83
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
59% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (ASIL Lysi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ASIL Lysi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ASIL Lysi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Cyprus: 2. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 2. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ethnikos Achna
Anagennisi Deryneia
Doxa
Enosis
Ayia Napa
Halkanoras
Polemidion
APEA
Akritas
Ermis
Digenis Morphou
Spartakos Kitiou
PAEEK
MEAP Nisou