Astana II hosts Arys in the Kazakhstan: 1. Division on July 31, 2026. Arys's recent form, coming off a win, contrasts with Astana II's struggles, having lost their last match 1-5 to Turan Turkistan. This high-scoring match is projected to have 3.4 expected total goals, with 3 being the most likely total goals. The single most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring 9.7% of the time.
Astana II has a similar strength to their opponents and scores 1.5 goals on average at home, conceding 2.75. Arys, when away, scores 1 goal on average against similar opponents and concedes 3.
The model's selection is the home win, with a 58% chance of occurring. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection, which is likely to hit at 86.6%. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 (86.6%), Home win (58%), and Away win (20%). The draw percentage is 22%. The home win percentage is 58%, the away win percentage is 20%, and the draw percentage is 22%.
Results analysis
Astana II's win extends their recent run of inconsistent form, having come off a defeat and now notching a second consecutive victory. The final score read 2-0, which was the actual result. The model correctly predicted a home win, a selection that carried a 58% pre-match probability, and it was the favourite. The model's call was correct. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 86.6% pre-match probability, and it was the only suggested pick that came in.
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
Astana II winâ Hit
57.5%
Avg Implied 68.2% · @ 1.32
Edge
-10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Unibet
1.36
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Drawâ Miss
22.0%
Avg Implied 18.0% · @ 5.02
Edge
+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.10
1xBet
5.05
Marathonbet
5.05
Dafabet
4.90
Arys winâ Miss
20.4%
Avg Implied 13.8% · @ 6.54
Edge
+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.48
Marathonbet
7.20
10Bet
6.60
Dafabet
6.00
â― 2. Goal Analysis
Astana II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
3.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.90
1.33
2.53
0.93
3.27
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
3.33
1.67
2.00
0.33
4.67
vs Similar (24)
1.17
2.79
1.25
2.67
1.08
2.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
3.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
2.50
1.14
2.07
0.88
2.88
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
2.71
1.25
2.00
1.00
3.67
vs Similar (23)
0.96
2.43
1.10
2.10
0.85
2.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.6%
@ 1.06-1.1%
Under 1.5
13.4%
@ 7.50+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Under
1xBet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
66.6%
@ 1.30-3.5%
Under 2.5
33.4%
@ 3.05+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.30
Unibet
3.05
Marathonbet
2.97
1xBet
2.97
Superbet
2.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.9%
@ 1.79-6.2%
Under 3.5
55.1%
@ 1.87+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Under
Betfair
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Unibet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.2%
@ 1.53+4.0%
No
35.8%
@ 2.31-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Superbet
1.50
No
Superbet
2.42
1xBet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.27
Betfair
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.7%@ 9.62+5.6%
2-1
9.6%@ 7.58+4.4%
2-0 â
7.7%@ 7.85+2.6%
3-1
7.0%@ 8.28+2.2%
1-0
6.2%@ 10.38+2.3%
2-2
6.0%@ 12.50+2.8%
3-0
5.6%@ 8.82+1.1%
1-2
5.5%@ 17.25+3.2%
Astana II goals ↓
Arys goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
3.2%
2.5%
1.1%
0.3%
1
6.2%
9.7%
5.5%
2.3%
0.7%
2
7.7%
9.6%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
3
5.6%
7.0%
4.4%
1.8%
0.6%
4
3.0%
3.8%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Astana II goals (down), columns = Arys goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Turan Turkistan
2.17
Akademiya Ontustik
2.17
Sport Academy Kairat
1.83
Ekibastuz
1.80
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.67
Taraz
1.50
Jaiyq
1.33
Yelimay Semey 2
1.00
Astana II
1.00
Arys
0.83
Aktobe Jas
0.67
Khan Tengri
0.67
Tobol 2
0.50
Astana II is 0.17 points better than Arys in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.83).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.40
Sport Academy Kairat
2.67
Turan Turkistan
2.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.83
Ekibastuz
1.80
Tobol 2
1.67
Aktobe Jas
1.33
Jaiyq
1.17
Yelimay Semey 2
1.00
Taraz
0.83
Khan Tengri
0.83
Arys
0.83
Astana II
0.83
Astana II and Arys are level in goals scored per game (both 0.83).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.40
Sport Academy Kairat
0.50
Taraz
0.83
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.00
Akademiya Ontustik
1.33
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.50
Ekibastuz
1.60
Yelimay Semey 2
1.67
Khan Tengri
1.67
Arys
1.83
Tobol 2
2.33
Astana II
2.50
Aktobe Jas
3.50
Astana II is 0.67 goals worse than Arys in terms of goals conceded per game (2.50 vs 1.83).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Astana II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.93
0.93
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.17
1.67
1.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.83
0.73
0.91
0.77
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.00
0.36
0.93
0.31
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.14
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.35
0.96
0.30
0.90
0.38
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Astana II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Astana II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
2.00
0.36
1.57
0.38
2.38
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
2.17
0.00
1.00
0.33
3.33
vs Similar (24)
0.42
1.96
0.45
1.73
0.38
2.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.50
0.79
1.14
0.56
1.81
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.57
0.75
1.00
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (23)
0.61
1.48
0.80
1.20
0.46
1.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Astana II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.6%
1.06
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-1.1%
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Karagandy
Turan Turkistan
Akademiya Ontustik
Sport Academy Kairat
Kaspij Aktau 2
Ekibastuz
Taraz
Jaiyq
Yelimay Semey 2
Khan Tengri
Aktobe Jas
Tobol 2