PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Astana II vs Ekibastuz Result & Analysis

Date: 21/04/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 0-2
Astana II
Astana II
Vs
54%
20%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ekibastuz
Ekibastuz
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Astana II win✗ Miss
54.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz win✓ Hit
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Astana IIAstana II

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-833D08L23L01L22D22D30W23L23L06LA·IGI11/09A·OKZ17/09H·KYR30/09A·TAR09/10H·SPO17/10A·EKI22/10A·BAY29/10A·ZHE05/11H·AKT07/04A·YEL14/04
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
3.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.862.542.361.641.363.43
vs Stronger (9)1.003.441.251.500.805.00
vs Similar (17)2.182.292.781.781.502.88
vs Weaker (2)3.000.503.001.003.000.00
Clean sheet %11% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-605L22D21W02L22D22D04L62W25L13LA·ZHE11/09H·AKA17/09A·YAS30/09H·KAI09/10A·BUL16/10H·AST22/10A·OKZ28/10H·KYR05/11A·SPO06/04H·AKZ13/04
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.711.961.711.571.712.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)1.682.181.551.821.822.55
vs Weaker (6)1.831.172.330.671.331.67
Clean sheet %14% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%2%04%113%218%319%417%527%6+
The model estimates around 4.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
93.8%
Under 1.5
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
81.2%
Under 2.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
63.6%
Under 3.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
77.7%
No
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
7.5%
2-2
6.8%
3-1
6.5%
1-1
6.4%
3-2
5.8%
1-2
5.3%
2-0
4.2%
4-1
4.2%
Astana II goals ↓
Ekibastuz goals →
01234
01.8%1.7%2.0%1.2%0.6%
12.7%6.4%5.3%3.2%1.4%
24.2%7.5%6.8%4.1%1.8%
33.6%6.5%5.8%3.5%1.6%
42.3%4.2%3.7%2.2%1.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Astana II goals (down), columns = Ekibastuz goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Yelimay Semey
2.71
Turan Turkistan
2.46
Zhenys
2.07
Akzhayik
1.93
Kyran
1.79
Sport Academy Kairat
1.25
Khan Tengri
1.25
Arys
1.18
Yassy Turkistan
1.14
Ekibastuz
1.14
Jas Qyran
1.14
Taraz
1.11
Aktobe Jas
0.82
Akademiya Ontustik
0.75
Astana II
0.68
Astana II is 0.46 points worse than Ekibastuz in terms of average points per game (0.68 vs 1.14).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Turan Turkistan
3.07
Yelimay Semey
2.71
Zhenys
2.21
Akzhayik
2.21
Sport Academy Kairat
2.07
Kyran
1.96
Jas Qyran
1.79
Yassy Turkistan
1.68
Taraz
1.68
Ekibastuz
1.68
Akademiya Ontustik
1.64
Arys
1.46
Khan Tengri
1.39
Aktobe Jas
1.32
Astana II
1.14
Astana II is 0.54 goals worse than Ekibastuz in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.68).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Yelimay Semey
0.61
Turan Turkistan
1.00
Akzhayik
1.04
Zhenys
1.21
Khan Tengri
1.36
Jas Qyran
1.86
Sport Academy Kairat
1.89
Taraz
2.04
Kyran
2.04
Yassy Turkistan
2.07
Ekibastuz
2.21
Arys
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.68
Aktobe Jas
2.75
Astana II
3.04
Astana II is 0.82 goals worse than Ekibastuz in terms of goals conceded per game (3.04 vs 2.21).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Astana IIAstana II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-612L23L06L12L00D10W02L10W11D03LH·BUL03/09A·IGI11/09A·OKZ17/09H·KYR30/09A·TAR09/10H·SPO17/10A·EKI22/10A·BAY29/10A·ZHE05/11A·YEL14/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.961.231.330.670.641.71
vs Stronger (8)0.501.881.000.670.202.60
vs Similar (16)1.191.001.500.620.881.38
vs Weaker (2)1.000.501.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %35% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D01L11D02L01L20W03L32W04L11DH·ZHE03/09A·ZHE11/09H·AKA17/09H·KAI09/10A·BUL16/10H·AST22/10A·OKZ28/10H·KYR05/11A·SPO06/04H·AKZ13/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.810.960.860.710.771.23
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.901.190.820.911.001.50
vs Weaker (6)0.500.171.000.000.000.33
Clean sheet %41% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Astana II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Astana IIAstana II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D10W02L11D01L12L20W20W12L03LH·BUL03/09A·IGI11/09A·OKZ17/09H·KYR30/09A·TAR09/10H·SPO17/10A·EKI22/10A·BAY29/10A·ZHE05/11A·YEL14/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.961.381.251.000.711.71
vs Stronger (8)0.622.000.671.330.602.40
vs Similar (16)1.001.251.381.000.621.50
vs Weaker (2)2.000.002.000.002.000.00
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W04L11D00D21W02L01L30W21W02LH·ZHE03/09A·ZHE11/09H·AKA17/09H·KAI09/10A·BUL16/10H·AST22/10A·OKZ28/10H·KYR05/11A·SPO06/04H·AKZ13/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.891.040.860.860.921.23
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.761.050.730.910.801.20
vs Weaker (6)1.331.001.330.671.331.33
Clean sheet %30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Astana II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.593.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.581.2%-------✗ Miss
BTTS Yes77.7%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YS (23)
€8m
ZHE (18)
€4m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YS (11)
€4m
ZHE (6)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YS (10)
€3m
ZHE (9)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
AI wins
1
Draws
0
EKI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Astana II vs Ekibastuz · H/A from AI
DateH/AGameScore
22/10/22AEkibastuz Vs AI2-2
16/07/22HAI Vs Ekibastuz3-0

Astana IIAstana II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/04/23AYelimay Semey Vs AI6-0
07/04/23HAI Vs Aktobe Jas2-3
05/11/22AZhenys Vs AI3-2
29/10/22ABaykonur Vs AI0-3
22/10/22AEkibastuz Vs AI2-2
17/10/22HAI Vs Sport Academy Kairat2-2
09/10/22ATaraz Karatau Vs AI1-0
30/09/22HAI Vs Kyran2-3
17/09/22AOkzhetpes Vs AI8-0
11/09/22AIgilik Vs AI3-3

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/23HEKI Vs Akzhayik1-3
06/04/23ASport Academy Kairat Vs EKI5-2
05/11/22HEKI Vs Kyran6-2
28/10/22AOkzhetpes Vs EKI4-0
22/10/22HEKI Vs Astana II2-2
16/10/22ABulat Vs EKI2-2
09/10/22HEKI Vs Kaisar0-2
30/09/22AYassy Turkistan Vs EKI1-2
17/09/22HEKI Vs Akademiya Ontustik2-2
11/09/22AZhetysu Vs EKI5-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Astana II
Astana II
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLL0.96
HomeLLLDL1.36
AwayLDWLL0.57
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %25%36%14%
AVG goals4.394.004.79
Over 1.5 %86%86%86%
Over 2.5 %79%71%86%
Over 3.5 %61%57%64%
Scored1.862.361.36
Conceded2.541.643.43
BTTS64%79%50%
Clean Sheet11%14%7%
Corners---
Cards---
Ekibastuz
Ekibastuz
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL1.32
HomeDLDWL1.29
AwayLWDLL1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%29%36%
AVG goals3.683.294.07
Over 1.5 %86%79%93%
Over 2.5 %75%64%86%
Over 3.5 %54%50%57%
Scored1.711.711.71
Conceded1.961.572.36
BTTS61%50%71%
Clean Sheet14%29%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey2876
86%
2.7
7617+59
3.3
86%
68%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4032.70.6
-
2Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan2869
79%
2.5
8628+58
4.1
79%
68%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.11.0
-
3ZhenysZhenys2858
64%
2.1
6234+28
3.4
93%
71%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2022.21.2
-
4AkzhayikAkzhayik2854
61%
1.9
6229+33
3.2
82%
64%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5KyranKyran2850
57%
1.8
5557-2
4.0
89%
71%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.0
-
6Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat2835
36%
1.2
5853+5
4.0
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.9
-
7Khan TengriKhan Tengri2835
36%
1.2
3938+1
2.8
75%
57%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
8ArysArys2833
36%
1.2
4163-22
3.7
86%
64%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.2
-
9Jas QyranJas Qyran2832
32%
1.1
5052-2
3.6
86%
61%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.9
-
10Yassy TurkistanYassy Turkistan2832
32%
1.1
4758-11
3.8
71%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.1
-
11EkibastuzEkibastuz2832
29%
1.1
4762-15
3.9
96%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.2
-
12TarazTaraz2831
32%
1.1
4757-10
3.7
89%
64%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
13Aktobe JasAktobe Jas2823
25%
0.8
3777-40
4.1
89%
79%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.8
-
14Akademiya OntustikAkademiya Ontustik2821
18%
0.8
4675-29
4.3
93%
86%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.7
-
15Astana IIAstana II2819
21%
0.7
3285-53
4.2
100%
89%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.13.0
-
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →

← all matches