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Astana II vs Ekibastuz Prediction & Stats

Date: 18/09/2026
Time: 12:00
Astana II
Astana II
Vs
56%
23%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ekibastuz
Ekibastuz
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Astana II, fresh from a 4-0 win over Taraz, looks poised to dominate at home, while Ekibastuz, having bounced back with two wins after a losing streak, will aim to keep the scoreline close. The model projects a 56% chance of a home win, 23% draw, and 21% away victory, making a home win the clear favourite. With an expected total of 3.3 goals, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 10.4% probability. Astana II averages 1.42 goals scored and 2.33 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Ekibastuz averages 0.92 scored and 2.42 conceded on the road. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.4%), Under 6.5 (95.0%), Home +2 handicap (91.2%), Under 5.5 (88.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (87.3%), and Over 1.5 (84.9%). Each probability is expressed as a percentage.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Astana II win
55.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz win
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Astana IIAstana II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-525L14L10W12L20W15L04L04L03L40WH·YAS24/10A·AKT31/10H·JAI17/07A·AKA23/07H·ARY31/07A·TUR07/08H·TOB13/08A·SHA21/08A·KHA28/08H·TAR03/09
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.232.731.472.271.003.20
vs Stronger (5)1.202.601.672.000.503.50
vs Similar (25)1.242.761.422.331.083.15
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L12L04L03L21W20W31W23L24L13LA·KHA16/10H·IRT24/10H·KAS09/04A·KAS23/07H·YEL30/07A·AKT06/08H·JAI14/08A·AKA20/08H·TUR27/08A·ARY03/09
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.502.171.692.121.292.21
vs Stronger (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (27)1.372.261.732.130.922.42
vs Weaker (2)3.501.00--3.501.00
Clean sheet %13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.9%
Under 1.5
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.8%
Under 2.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.7%
Under 3.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.5%
No
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.0%
1-0
6.8%
3-1
6.7%
2-2
6.0%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.5%
Astana II goals ↓
Ekibastuz goals →
01234
04.7%3.6%2.8%1.1%0.3%
16.8%10%5.8%2.3%0.7%
28.0%9.7%6.0%2.4%0.7%
35.5%6.7%4.1%1.7%0.5%
42.8%3.5%2.1%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Astana II goals (down), columns = Ekibastuz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Astana II is 0.16 points worse than Ekibastuz in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.29).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Astana II is 0.59 goals worse than Ekibastuz in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.71).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Astana II is 0.11 goals worse than Ekibastuz in terms of goals conceded per game (2.25 vs 2.14).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Astana II or Draw
78.8%
Avg Implied -
56%
23%
21%
covers Astana II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Astana II or Ekibastuz
77.0%
Avg Implied -
56%
23%
21%
covers Astana II + Ekibastuz
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ekibastuz
44.2%
Avg Implied -
56%
23%
21%
covers Draw + Ekibastuz
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Astana II over/under 0.5
Over
87.3%
Under
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5
Over
61.1%
Under
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5
Over
34.1%
Under
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 3.5
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5
Over
70.5%
Under
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5
Over
34.5%
Under
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Astana II, so a minus line means Astana II give that many goals of a start and Ekibastuz receive them. At -1, Astana II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Astana II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Astana II)
Astana II -2
17.1%
Draw -2
17.2%
Ekibastuz +2
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Astana II)
Astana II -1
34.3%
Draw -1
21.6%
Ekibastuz +1
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Astana II)
Astana II +1
78.8%
Draw +1
12.4%
Ekibastuz -1
8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Astana II)
Astana II +2
91.2%
Draw +2
6.0%
Ekibastuz -2
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Astana IIAstana II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W00D10W20W02L03L02L02L20WH·YAS24/10A·AKT31/10H·JAI17/07A·AKA23/07H·ARY31/07A·TUR07/08H·TOB13/08A·SHA21/08A·KHA28/08H·TAR03/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.031.001.000.601.07
vs Stronger (5)1.000.801.671.000.000.50
vs Similar (25)0.761.080.831.000.691.15
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D01L02L10W20W11D02L01L00DA·KHA16/10H·IRT24/10H·KAS09/04A·KAS23/07H·YEL30/07A·AKT06/08H·JAI14/08A·AKA20/08H·TUR27/08A·ARY03/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.800.810.620.431.00
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (27)0.560.850.870.670.171.08
vs Weaker (2)2.000.50--2.000.50
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Astana II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Astana IIAstana II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L04L10W02L00D13L01L02L01L20WH·YAS24/10A·AKT31/10H·JAI17/07A·AKA23/07H·ARY31/07A·TUR07/08H·TOB13/08A·SHA21/08A·KHA28/08H·TAR03/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.700.471.270.402.13
vs Stronger (5)0.201.800.001.000.503.00
vs Similar (25)0.481.680.581.330.382.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L12L03L01L11D00D20W21W23L13LA·KHA16/10H·IRT24/10H·KAS09/04A·KAS23/07H·YEL30/07A·AKT06/08H·JAI14/08A·AKA20/08H·TUR27/08A·ARY03/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.370.881.500.861.21
vs Stronger (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (27)0.811.410.871.470.751.33
vs Weaker (2)1.500.50--1.500.50
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Astana II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.1%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.4%-------
Under 6.595.0%-------
Home +2 handicap91.2%-------
Under 5.588.5%-------
Away under 2.5 goals87.5%-------
Home over 0.5 goals87.3%-------
Over 1.584.9%-------
Home under 3.5 goals84.5%-------
Home or Draw78.8%-------
Home +1 handicap78.8%-------
Home or Away77.0%-------
Under 4.576.5%-------
Away over 0.5 goals70.5%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
AI wins
1
Draws
1
EKI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Astana II vs Ekibastuz · H/A from AI
DateH/AGameScore
27/07/23AEkibastuz Vs AI2-3
21/04/23HAI Vs Ekibastuz0-2
22/10/22AEkibastuz Vs AI2-2
16/07/22HAI Vs Ekibastuz3-0

Astana IIAstana II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26HAI Vs Taraz4-0
28/08/26AKhan Tengri Vs AI3-0
21/08/26AShakhter Karagandy Vs AI4-0
13/08/26HAI Vs Tobol 20-4
07/08/26ATuran Turkistan Vs AI5-1
31/07/26HAI Vs Arys2-0
23/07/26AAkademiya Ontustik Vs AI2-1
17/07/26HAI Vs Jaiyq1-0
31/10/23AAktobe Jas Vs AI4-1
24/10/23HAI Vs Yassy Turkistan2-5

EkibastuzEkibastuz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26AArys Vs EKI3-1
27/08/26HEKI Vs Turan Turkistan2-4
20/08/26AAkademiya Ontustik Vs EKI3-2
14/08/26HEKI Vs Jaiyq3-1
06/08/26AAktobe Jas Vs EKI0-2
30/07/26HEKI Vs Yelimay Semey 22-1
23/07/26AKaspij Aktau 2 Vs EKI3-0
09/04/26HEKI Vs Kaspiy0-4
24/10/25HEKI Vs Irtysh1-2
16/10/25AKhan Tengri Vs EKI4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Astana II
Astana II
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW0.80
HomeLWWLW1.04
AwayLLLLL0.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%33%15%
AVG goals4.224.044.38
Over 1.5 %94%92%96%
Over 2.5 %86%83%88%
Over 3.5 %62%67%58%
Scored1.421.791.08
Conceded2.802.253.31
BTTS52%58%46%
Clean Sheet10%17%4%
Corners---
Cards---
Ekibastuz
Ekibastuz
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLL1.38
HomeLLWWL1.60
AwayLLWLL1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%48%36%
AVG goals3.724.003.44
Over 1.5 %88%96%80%
Over 2.5 %76%84%68%
Over 3.5 %52%60%44%
Scored1.682.041.32
Conceded2.041.962.12
BTTS62%76%48%
Clean Sheet20%16%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy721
100%
3.0
242+22
3.7
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.40.3
-
2Akademiya OntustikAkademiya Ontustik819
75%
2.4
1610+6
3.2
88%
88%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
3Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat817
62%
2.1
183+15
2.6
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.4
-
4Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan716
71%
2.3
168+8
3.4
71%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.1
-
5TarazTaraz812
38%
1.5
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
6Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2710
43%
1.4
1211+1
3.3
71%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
7EkibastuzEkibastuz79
43%
1.3
1215-3
3.9
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.1
-
8Astana IIAstana II89
38%
1.1
918-9
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.2
-
9JaiyqJaiyq78
29%
1.1
77+0
2.0
57%
29%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
10ArysArys88
25%
1.0
813-5
2.6
75%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
11Khan TengriKhan Tengri87
25%
0.9
814-6
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
12Aktobe JasAktobe Jas87
25%
0.9
1023-13
4.1
88%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.9
-
13Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 276
29%
0.9
613-7
2.7
57%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
14Tobol 2Tobol 283
12%
0.4
1118-7
3.6
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →

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