Astana II are expected to emerge victorious in this Kazakhstan: 1. Division clash against Tobol 2. Recent form suggests a challenging encounter, with Astana II coming off a defeat and Tobol 2 having suffered four consecutive losses. However, the data indicates a strong likelihood of a home win, with a 59% probability.
The match is expected to be high-scoring, with an average of 3 goals anticipated. The most likely total number of goals is 2, but the single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring with a 11.1% chance. Astana II have struggled at home, scoring 0.5 goals on average against stronger opponents and conceding 2.5 goals. Meanwhile, Tobol 2 have averaged 0.5 goals away from home against stronger opponents, conceding 2.5 goals as well.
The model's selection is the home win, with a 59% chance of success. The model also suggests the Over 1.5 goal selection, with an 80.8% probability. Other selections include the Home win (59%), the Draw (23%), and the Away win (18%).
Results analysis
A stunning upset unfolded at the Kazakhstan: 1. Division, as Tobol 2 secured a 4-0 victory over Astana II, extending their win streak. The win marks a reversal for Astana II, who had been seeking to bounce back from two consecutive defeats. The pre-match favourite, the home win, did not come through, as the model's selection was incorrect. The model had predicted a home win with a 59% probability. Meanwhile, the model's selection of the over 1.5 goals, which had an 80.8% probability, hit, as the final score was 0-4. The suggested pick of the over 1.5 goals also proved correct, as the actual total goals scored was 4.
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
Astana II winâ Miss
58.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 winâ Hit
17.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
â― 2. Goal Analysis
Astana II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
3.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.77
1.33
2.33
1.00
3.20
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
2.71
1.75
2.25
0.33
3.33
vs Similar (23)
1.17
2.78
1.18
2.36
1.17
3.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tobol 2
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
2.50
1.00
2.50
0.50
2.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.33
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.3%
Under 2.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.9%
Under 3.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
10.0%
2-0
9.9%
1-0
9.0%
3-1
6.6%
3-0
6.5%
0-0
6.1%
1-2
5.1%
Astana II goals ↓
Tobol 2 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
4.1%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
1
9.0%
11%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.9%
10.0%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
6.5%
6.6%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
4
3.2%
3.2%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Astana II goals (down), columns = Tobol 2 goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Akademiya Ontustik
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.00
Taraz
1.71
Ekibastuz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Jaiyq
1.14
Aktobe Jas
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Astana II
0.86
Arys
0.71
Tobol 2
0.43
Astana II is 0.43 points better than Tobol 2 in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 0.43).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.33
Sport Academy Kairat
2.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.83
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.57
Aktobe Jas
1.29
Taraz
1.14
Khan Tengri
1.14
Jaiyq
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Arys
0.71
Astana II
0.71
Astana II is 0.86 goals worse than Tobol 2 in terms of goals scored per game (0.71 vs 1.57).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.33
Sport Academy Kairat
0.43
Taraz
0.86
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Akademiya Ontustik
1.29
Khan Tengri
1.43
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.71
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.00
Tobol 2
2.43
Astana II
2.57
Aktobe Jas
3.00
Astana II is 0.14 goals worse than Tobol 2 in terms of goals conceded per game (2.57 vs 2.43).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Astana II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
1.00
0.87
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
0.57
1.75
0.75
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.91
0.73
0.91
0.75
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tobol 2
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Astana II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Astana II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.93
0.33
1.47
0.40
2.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
2.14
0.00
1.50
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (23)
0.43
1.87
0.45
1.45
0.42
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tobol 2
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Astana II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →