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Astana II vs Tobol 2 Result & Analysis

Date: 13/08/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 0-4
Astana II
Astana II
Vs
59%
23%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tobol 2
Tobol 2
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Astana II are expected to emerge victorious in this Kazakhstan: 1. Division clash against Tobol 2. Recent form suggests a challenging encounter, with Astana II coming off a defeat and Tobol 2 having suffered four consecutive losses. However, the data indicates a strong likelihood of a home win, with a 59% probability.

The match is expected to be high-scoring, with an average of 3 goals anticipated. The most likely total number of goals is 2, but the single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring with a 11.1% chance. Astana II have struggled at home, scoring 0.5 goals on average against stronger opponents and conceding 2.5 goals. Meanwhile, Tobol 2 have averaged 0.5 goals away from home against stronger opponents, conceding 2.5 goals as well.

The model's selection is the home win, with a 59% chance of success. The model also suggests the Over 1.5 goal selection, with an 80.8% probability. Other selections include the Home win (59%), the Draw (23%), and the Away win (18%).

Results analysis

A stunning upset unfolded at the Kazakhstan: 1. Division, as Tobol 2 secured a 4-0 victory over Astana II, extending their win streak. The win marks a reversal for Astana II, who had been seeking to bounce back from two consecutive defeats. The pre-match favourite, the home win, did not come through, as the model's selection was incorrect. The model had predicted a home win with a 59% probability. Meanwhile, the model's selection of the over 1.5 goals, which had an 80.8% probability, hit, as the final score was 0-4. The suggested pick of the over 1.5 goals also proved correct, as the actual total goals scored was 4.

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Astana II win✗ Miss
58.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 win✓ Hit
17.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Astana IIAstana II

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-805L31W23L08L25L14L10W12L20W15LH·AKZ22/09A·JAS03/10H·TAR08/10A·TUR19/10H·YAS24/10A·AKT31/10H·JAI17/07A·AKA23/07H·ARY31/07A·TUR07/08
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
3.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.172.771.332.331.003.20
vs Stronger (7)1.142.711.752.250.333.33
vs Similar (23)1.172.781.182.361.173.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tobol 2Tobol 2

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L12L02L03LH·AKA17/07A·TUR24/07H·SHA31/07A·ARY07/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.752.501.002.500.502.50
vs Stronger (3)1.002.331.002.501.002.00
vs Similar (1)0.003.00--0.003.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.3%
Under 2.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.9%
Under 3.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
10.0%
2-0
9.9%
1-0
9.0%
3-1
6.6%
3-0
6.5%
0-0
6.1%
1-2
5.1%
Astana II goals ↓
Tobol 2 goals →
01234
06.1%4.1%2.6%0.9%0.2%
19.0%11%5.1%1.7%0.4%
29.9%10.0%5.0%1.7%0.4%
36.5%6.6%3.3%1.1%0.3%
43.2%3.2%1.6%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Astana II goals (down), columns = Tobol 2 goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Akademiya Ontustik
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.00
Taraz
1.71
Ekibastuz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Jaiyq
1.14
Aktobe Jas
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Astana II
0.86
Arys
0.71
Tobol 2
0.43
Astana II is 0.43 points better than Tobol 2 in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 0.43).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.33
Sport Academy Kairat
2.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.83
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.57
Aktobe Jas
1.29
Taraz
1.14
Khan Tengri
1.14
Jaiyq
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Arys
0.71
Astana II
0.71
Astana II is 0.86 goals worse than Tobol 2 in terms of goals scored per game (0.71 vs 1.57).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.33
Sport Academy Kairat
0.43
Taraz
0.86
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Akademiya Ontustik
1.29
Khan Tengri
1.43
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.71
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.00
Tobol 2
2.43
Astana II
2.57
Aktobe Jas
3.00
Astana II is 0.14 goals worse than Tobol 2 in terms of goals conceded per game (2.57 vs 2.43).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Astana IIAstana II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L10W20W03L11D10W00D10W20W02LH·AKZ22/09A·JAS03/10H·TAR08/10A·TUR19/10H·YAS24/10A·AKT31/10H·JAI17/07A·AKA23/07H·ARY31/07A·TUR07/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.831.000.870.600.80
vs Stronger (7)1.000.571.750.750.000.33
vs Similar (23)0.740.910.730.910.750.92
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tobol 2Tobol 2

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L00D01L02LH·AKA17/07A·TUR24/07H·SHA31/07A·ARY07/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.001.500.002.000.001.00
vs Stronger (3)0.001.330.002.000.000.00
vs Similar (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Astana II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Astana IIAstana II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L21W03L05L14L04L10W02L00D13LH·AKZ22/09A·JAS03/10H·TAR08/10A·TUR19/10H·YAS24/10A·AKT31/10H·JAI17/07A·AKA23/07H·ARY31/07A·TUR07/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.371.930.331.470.402.40
vs Stronger (7)0.142.140.001.500.333.00
vs Similar (23)0.431.870.451.450.422.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Tobol 2) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tobol 2Tobol 2

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W12L01L01LH·AKA17/07A·TUR24/07H·SHA31/07A·ARY07/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.751.001.000.500.501.50
vs Stronger (3)1.001.001.000.501.002.00
vs Similar (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Astana II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Astana II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Astana II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tobol 2 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
AI wins
0
Draws
0
T2 wins

Head-to-head

Astana II vs Tobol 2 · H/A from AI
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Astana IIAstana II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/08/26ATuran Turkistan Vs AI5-1
31/07/26HAI Vs Arys2-0
23/07/26AAkademiya Ontustik Vs AI2-1
17/07/26HAI Vs Jaiyq1-0
31/10/23AAktobe Jas Vs AI4-1
24/10/23HAI Vs Yassy Turkistan2-5
19/10/23ATuran Turkistan Vs AI8-0
08/10/23HAI Vs Taraz2-3
03/10/23AJas Qyran Vs AI1-3
22/09/23HAI Vs Akzhayik0-5

Tobol 2Tobol 2

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/08/26AArys Vs T23-0
31/07/26HT2 Vs Shakhter Karagandy0-2
24/07/26ATuran Turkistan Vs T22-1
17/07/26HT2 Vs Akademiya Ontustik2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Astana II
Astana II
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL0.80
HomeLLLWW1.04
AwayWLLLL0.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%33%15%
AVG goals4.284.044.50
Over 1.5 %94%92%96%
Over 2.5 %86%83%88%
Over 3.5 %60%62%58%
Scored1.481.831.15
Conceded2.802.213.35
BTTS58%62%54%
Clean Sheet10%17%4%
Corners---
Cards---
Tobol 2
Tobol 2
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 0 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLL0.00
HomeLL0.00
AwayLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %0%0%0%
AVG goals3.253.503.00
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %75%50%100%
Over 3.5 %25%50%0%
Scored0.751.000.50
Conceded2.502.502.50
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy618
100%
3.0
202+18
3.7
83%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.30.3
-
2Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan716
71%
2.3
168+8
3.4
71%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.1
-
3Akademiya OntustikAkademiya Ontustik716
71%
2.3
149+5
3.3
86%
86%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.3
-
4Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat714
57%
2.0
173+14
2.9
57%
57%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.40.4
-
5TarazTaraz712
43%
1.7
86+2
2.0
71%
29%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
6Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2710
43%
1.4
1211+1
3.3
71%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
7EkibastuzEkibastuz69
50%
1.5
1112-1
3.8
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.0
-
8JaiyqJaiyq78
29%
1.1
77+0
2.0
57%
29%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
9Khan TengriKhan Tengri77
29%
1.0
810-2
2.6
57%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
10Aktobe JasAktobe Jas77
29%
1.0
921-12
4.3
86%
57%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.0
-
11Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 276
29%
0.9
613-7
2.7
57%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
12Astana IIAstana II76
29%
0.9
518-13
3.3
86%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.6
-
13ArysArys75
14%
0.7
512-7
2.4
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
14Tobol 2Tobol 273
14%
0.4
1117-6
4.0
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.4
-
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →

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