Defensive solidity will shape the early minutes, as Asteras Tripolis II have conceded just under one goal per game at home while Anagennisi Karditsas have allowed less than one goal away. The model favours a home win, with a 39% chance, a 33% draw probability and a 28% chance of an away victory. The expected total goals is 2.0, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.7% probability. Asteras’ home form shows 1.46 goals scored and 0.92 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Karditsas average 0.64 goals scored and 0.73 conceded on the road.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Under 5.5 (98.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.3%), Under 4.5 (94.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.6%) and Home +2 handicap (89.8%). Asteras are coming off a defeat, while Karditsas return after two straight losses, adding a narrative of recovery for the home side.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Asteras Tripolis II win
38.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
33.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Karditsas win
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Asteras Tripolis II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.17
1.57
1.00
0.94
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.21
1.14
1.46
0.92
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
3.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Anagennisi Karditsas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anagennisi Karditsas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.87
1.38
1.12
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.95
1.00
1.27
1.27
0.64
0.73
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
0.17
2.33
0.33
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Asteras Tripolis II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
61.3%
Under 1.5
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
32.9%
Under 2.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
14.7%
Under 3.5
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.4%
No
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
14.6%
1-0
13.4%
0-1
10.7%
2-0
8.2%
2-1
7.5%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
5.4%
Asteras Tripolis II goals ↓
Anagennisi Karditsas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
11%
5.4%
1.6%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.1%
1.8%
0.4%
2
8.2%
7.5%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%
3
3.1%
2.8%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Asteras Tripolis II goals (down), columns = Anagennisi Karditsas goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Panionios
2.08
Niki Volos
2.00
Larisa
1.80
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.71
Marko
1.67
PAOK II
1.64
Kallithea
1.61
Ellas Syros
1.61
Asteras Tripolis II
1.54
Nestos Chrisoupolis
1.43
Pyrgos 1968
1.41
Zakynthos
1.41
Panthrakikos
1.41
Panserraikos
1.36
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.29
Apollon Pontou
1.18
Asteras Tripolis II is 0.17 points worse than Anagennisi Karditsas in terms of average points per game (1.54 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niki Volos
1.92
PAOK II
1.57
Larisa
1.48
Panionios
1.46
Ellas Syros
1.43
Asteras Tripolis II
1.21
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.17
Pyrgos 1968
1.16
Zakynthos
1.16
Panthrakikos
1.16
Kallithea
1.14
Marko
1.12
Panserraikos
1.12
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.08
Nestos Chrisoupolis
1.07
Apollon Pontou
0.97
Asteras Tripolis II is 0.04 goals better than Anagennisi Karditsas in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Niki Volos
0.50
Panionios
0.54
Marko
0.71
Anagennisi Karditsas
0.75
Kallithea
0.79
Ellas Syros
0.86
Larisa
0.89
Nestos Chrisoupolis
0.93
PAOK II
1.11
Asteras Tripolis II
1.12
Pyrgos 1968
1.13
Zakynthos
1.13
Panthrakikos
1.13
Panserraikos
1.17
Apollon Pontou
1.35
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.58
Asteras Tripolis II is 0.38 goals worse than Anagennisi Karditsas in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 0.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Asteras Tripolis II or Draw
72.0%
Avg Implied -
39%
33%
28%
covers Asteras Tripolis II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis II or Anagennisi Karditsas
66.9%
Avg Implied -
39%
33%
28%
covers Asteras Tripolis II + Anagennisi Karditsas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Anagennisi Karditsas
61.1%
Avg Implied -
39%
33%
28%
covers Draw + Anagennisi Karditsas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Asteras Tripolis II over/under 0.5
Over
67.2%
Under
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis II over/under 1.5
Over
30.6%
Under
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis II over/under 2.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis II over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Karditsas over/under 0.5
Over
59.6%
Under
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Karditsas over/under 1.5
Over
23.0%
Under
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Karditsas over/under 2.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Karditsas over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Asteras Tripolis II, so a minus line means Asteras Tripolis II give that many goals of a start and Anagennisi Karditsas receive them. At -1, Asteras Tripolis II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Asteras Tripolis II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Asteras Tripolis II)
Asteras Tripolis II -2
5.2%
Draw -2
11.4%
Anagennisi Karditsas +2
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Asteras Tripolis II)
Asteras Tripolis II -1
16.6%
Draw -1
22.3%
Anagennisi Karditsas +1
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Asteras Tripolis II)
Asteras Tripolis II +1
72.0%
Draw +1
17.9%
Anagennisi Karditsas -1
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Asteras Tripolis II)
Asteras Tripolis II +2
89.8%
Draw +2
7.5%
Anagennisi Karditsas -2
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Asteras Tripolis II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.79
0.43
0.44
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.54
0.77
0.38
0.47
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Anagennisi Karditsas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anagennisi Karditsas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.40
0.69
0.62
0.50
0.14
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.50
0.73
0.82
0.27
0.18
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.17
0.67
0.33
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Asteras Tripolis II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Asteras Tripolis II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Karditsas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Karditsas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Karditsas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Asteras Tripolis II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.79
0.57
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.61
0.69
0.54
0.53
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Anagennisi Karditsas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anagennisi Karditsas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.69
0.50
0.29
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.45
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.00
1.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Asteras Tripolis II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Asteras Tripolis II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Karditsas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Karditsas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Karditsas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAN (27)
€6m
NV (24)
€6m
PI (21)
€5m
KAL (27)
€5m
PAN (24)
€5m
LAR (23)
€5m
MAR (27)
€5m
AK (25)
€4m
OPI (22)
€4m
ATI (23)
€4m
NC (23)
€3m
ES (20)
€3m
AP (16)
€2m
Asteras Tripolis II and Anagennisi Karditsas have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAN (13)
€3m
PAN (11)
€2m
PI (9)
€2m
MAR (11)
€2m
NV (7)
€2m
OPI (9)
€2m
LAR (7)
€2m
KAL (9)
€2m
AK (7)
€1m
NC (9)
€1m
ES (9)
€1m
ATI (6)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
Asteras Tripolis II and Anagennisi Karditsas have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NV (6)
€1m
PI (4)
€1m
ATI (7)
€1m
PAN (3)
€1m
AK (6)
€1m
LAR (3)
€1m
KAL (4)
€1m
NC (5)
€1m
AP (4)
€1m
ES (3)
€1m
MAR (4)
€0m
OPI (3)
€0m
PAN (1)
€0m
Asteras Tripolis II and Anagennisi Karditsas have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAL (14)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
NV (11)
€3m
LAR (13)
€2m
MAR (12)
€2m
PI (8)
€2m
OPI (10)
€2m
PAN (10)
€2m
AK (12)
€2m
NC (9)
€1m
ATI (10)
€1m
ES (8)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
Asteras Tripolis II and Anagennisi Karditsas have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Greece: Super League 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Panserraikos
Ellas Syros
Panionios
Niki Volos
Zakynthos
PAOK II
Nestos Chrisoupolis
Marko
Apollon Pontou
Kallithea
Olympiakos Piraeus II
Larisa
Pyrgos 1968
Panthrakikos