Asteras Tripolis, who have averaged a clean 1.0 goal scored and conceded at home against similarly ranked opposition, face an Iraklis side that has struggled to find the net away, averaging 1.0 goal conceded and only 1.0 goal scored. The model projects a tight affair with a 48% chance of a home win, 30% for a draw and 21% for an away triumph, making a home victory the favourite outcome. The expected total goals hover at 2.2, with the most probable total being 2 goals at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0, carrying a 14% probability. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals carries an 82.1% chance. In short, the match is expected to be low-scoring, favouring Asteras Tripolis to win 1-0.
Results analysis
The upset came early: Asteras Tripolis, the pre-match favourite with a 48% chance, failed to convert its advantage, losing 1-2 to Iraklis 1908. The model’s call was wrong, as the actual result was an away win. The prediction that the match would finish under 3.5 goals proved correct, with an 82.1% probability and the pick hitting. Asteras’ form had dipped after three straight defeats, while Iraklis entered the game after a draw, both narratives aligning with the final outcome. The most likely scoreline of 1-0 was missed, and the 1-1 draw also missed, underscoring the unpredictability of the encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Asteras Tripolis win✗ Miss
48.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 win✓ Hit
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Asteras Tripolis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.25
1.08
1.17
1.00
1.33
1.17
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.33
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.17
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
-
-
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
25% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis 1908) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis 1908
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.92
1.25
1.17
1.00
0.67
1.50
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.50
2.00
1.50
0.50
3.50
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
-
-
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
42% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Asteras Tripolis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.7%
Under 1.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
37.6%
Under 2.5
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.9%
Under 3.5
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.1%
No
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.0%
1-1
13.9%
0-0
12.4%
2-0
10.4%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
7.9%
1-2 ✓
5.2%
3-0
4.8%
Asteras Tripolis goals ↓
Iraklis 1908 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.9%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
1
14%
14%
5.2%
1.4%
0.3%
2
10%
8.6%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
3
4.8%
3.9%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.6%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Asteras Tripolis goals (down), columns = Iraklis 1908 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.83
Panathinaikos
1.93
AEK Athens FC
1.90
PAOK
1.60
Panionios
1.47
Atromitos
1.40
PAS Giannina
1.40
Asteras Tripolis
1.37
Platanias
1.30
Levadiakos
1.23
Panetolikos
1.17
Iraklis 1908
1.17
Xanthi FC
1.10
Veria
0.90
Panthrakikos
0.57
Kallonis
0.53
Asteras Tripolis is 0.20 points better than Iraklis 1908 in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.70
Panathinaikos
1.73
PAOK
1.50
AEK Athens FC
1.43
PAS Giannina
1.20
Panionios
1.10
Platanias
1.07
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Panetolikos
1.00
Xanthi FC
0.90
Levadiakos
0.90
Atromitos
0.87
Iraklis 1908
0.80
Kallonis
0.63
Veria
0.63
Panthrakikos
0.60
Asteras Tripolis is 0.23 goals better than Iraklis 1908 in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.53
AEK Athens FC
0.70
Panathinaikos
0.87
Panionios
0.90
Platanias
1.00
Asteras Tripolis
1.00
Atromitos
1.03
PAOK
1.07
Xanthi FC
1.07
Iraklis 1908
1.07
Veria
1.10
Levadiakos
1.20
PAS Giannina
1.33
Panetolikos
1.53
Kallonis
1.77
Panthrakikos
1.93
Asteras Tripolis is 0.07 goals better than Iraklis 1908 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.07).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Asteras Tripolis
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Iraklis 1908
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Asteras Tripolis
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Iraklis 1908) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis 1908
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Asteras Tripolis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Asteras Tripolis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.67
0.80
0.60
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
-
-
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis 1908) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis 1908
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
1.50
0.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
-
-
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
58% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Asteras Tripolis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Asteras Tripolis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Asteras Tripolis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.58
0.50
0.33
1.00
0.83
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.50
0.20
0.40
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
-
-
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
58% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis 1908) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis 1908
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.42
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.83
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.25
-
-
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Asteras Tripolis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Asteras Tripolis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Asteras Tripolis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Asteras Tripolis · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Julián Bartolo30%
Federico Macheda26%
Georgios Charalampoglou10%
Julián Chicco9%
Kalvin Ketu9%
Nikos Kaltsas7%
Christos Almyras6%
Robert Ivanov6%
Nicholas Gioacchini6%
Chidera Okoh6%
Nikolai Alho5%
Oluwatobiloba Alagbe4%
Dimitris Emmanouilidis4%
Eder González4%
Pepe Castaño0%
Evgeniy Yablonskiy0%
Júnior Mendieta0%
Issiaga Sylla0%
Theofanis Tzandaris0%
Nikolaos Papadopoulos0%
Konstantinos Triantafyllopoulos0%
Panagiotis Deligiannidis0%
Nikola Šipčić0%
Dani Fernández0%
Alexandros Tereziou0%
Alberto Simoni0%
Stefan Mitrović0%
Miguel Muñoz Mora0%
Vasilis Chatziemmanouil0%
Konstantinos Pomonis0%
Dimitris Laskaris0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pepe Castaño75%
Alexandros Tereziou50%
Konstantinos Pomonis46%
Dani Fernández36%
Miguel Muñoz Mora32%
Oluwatobiloba Alagbe30%
Nikola Šipčić29%
Robert Ivanov28%
Konstantinos Triantafyllopoulos27%
Stefan Mitrović25%
Nikos Kaltsas21%
Vasilis Chatziemmanouil20%
Nikolai Alho19%
Christos Almyras19%
Issiaga Sylla18%
Evgeniy Yablonskiy17%
Chidera Okoh17%
Federico Macheda16%
Panagiotis Deligiannidis12%
Julián Bartolo12%
Nicholas Gioacchini11%
Theofanis Tzandaris10%
Julián Chicco9%
Dimitris Emmanouilidis8%
Eder González8%
Nikolaos Papadopoulos7%
Kalvin Ketu6%
Júnior Mendieta0%
Alberto Simoni0%
Georgios Charalampoglou0%
Dimitris Laskaris0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kalvin Ketu15%
Julián Chicco9%
Federico Macheda6%
Júnior Mendieta6%
Christos Almyras6%
Julián Bartolo6%
Evgeniy Yablonskiy6%
Nicholas Gioacchini6%
Nikolai Alho5%
Issiaga Sylla5%
Miguel Muñoz Mora5%
Dimitris Emmanouilidis4%
Eder González4%
Nikos Kaltsas3%
Pepe Castaño0%
Theofanis Tzandaris0%
Nikolaos Papadopoulos0%
Oluwatobiloba Alagbe0%
Konstantinos Triantafyllopoulos0%
Panagiotis Deligiannidis0%
Nikola Šipčić0%
Robert Ivanov0%
Dani Fernández0%
Alexandros Tereziou0%
Alberto Simoni0%
Stefan Mitrović0%
Vasilis Chatziemmanouil0%
Chidera Okoh0%
Konstantinos Pomonis0%
Georgios Charalampoglou0%
Dimitris Laskaris0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Christos Almyras19%
Julián Bartolo18%
Nikos Kaltsas10%
Federico Macheda10%
Kalvin Ketu6%
Chidera Okoh6%
Pepe Castaño0%
Evgeniy Yablonskiy0%
Júnior Mendieta0%
Julián Chicco0%
Issiaga Sylla0%
Theofanis Tzandaris0%
Dimitris Emmanouilidis0%
Nikolaos Papadopoulos0%
Oluwatobiloba Alagbe0%
Konstantinos Triantafyllopoulos0%
Panagiotis Deligiannidis0%
Nikola Šipčić0%
Nikolai Alho0%
Robert Ivanov0%
Eder González0%
Dani Fernández0%
Alexandros Tereziou0%
Alberto Simoni0%
Nicholas Gioacchini0%
Stefan Mitrović0%
Miguel Muñoz Mora0%
Vasilis Chatziemmanouil0%
Konstantinos Pomonis0%
Georgios Charalampoglou0%
Dimitris Laskaris0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (29)
€175m
PAN (34)
€109m
AAF (26)
€85m
PAO (32)
€82m
LEV (24)
€16m
PAN (27)
€13m
AT (31)
€13m
ATR (21)
€12m
I1 (25)
€9m
PAN (24)
€5m
PG (36)
€4m
Asteras Tripolis's squad is €4m more valuable than Iraklis 1908's (€13m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (12)
€84m
PAN (13)
€46m
AAF (11)
€44m
PAO (11)
€30m
PAN (11)
€7m
LEV (11)
€5m
AT (11)
€5m
ATR (7)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
I1 (6)
€2m
PG (12)
€1m
Asteras Tripolis's attack is €2m more valuable than Iraklis 1908's (€5m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€47m
PAO (7)
€28m
PAN (8)
€26m
AAF (5)
€16m
LEV (4)
€5m
I1 (7)
€3m
AT (4)
€2m
ATR (3)
€2m
PAN (5)
€2m
PG (7)
€1m
PAN (1)
€0m
Asteras Tripolis and Iraklis 1908 have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (11)
€44m
PAN (13)
€38m
AAF (10)
€26m
PAO (14)
€24m
ATR (11)
€6m
AT (16)
€6m
LEV (9)
€5m
I1 (12)
€4m
PAN (11)
€3m
PAN (10)
€2m
PG (17)
€2m
Asteras Tripolis's defence is €2m more valuable than Iraklis 1908's (€6m vs €4m).
Greece: Super League 1 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympiakos Piraeus
Panathinaikos
AEK Athens FC
PAOK
Panionios
PAS Giannina
Atromitos
Levadiakos
Panetolikos
Xanthi FC
Veria
Panthrakikos