Aston Villa return to the Emirates after a 0-4 loss to Brighton, while Arsenal are unbeaten in their last five, a 3-0 win over Coventry. The model’s biggest edge lies in its prediction of a home win, a 36% chance versus a 35% chance for Arsenal and 29% for a draw. The expected goal count is 2.6, with the most likely total of two goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.9% probability. Villa’s home form shows they score 1.9 goals and concede 0.9 against weaker opposition, while Arsenal’s away form mirrors that strength, scoring 1.9 and conceding 0.9. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.1% with a 2% edge), Under 6.5 (97.8% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.6% with a 2% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.0%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (94.6% with a 4% edge), Under 5.5 (94.1% with a 3% edge), and Away under 3.5 goals (92.5% with an 8% edge).
Results analysis
The win for Arsenal extends their two-game winning run, while Aston Villa’s recent form of two straight defeats shows a struggle at home. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the model’s pick of an away win, with a pre-match probability of 36%. The model’s selection was correct. Every suggested pick was settled and hit: Under 7.5 (99.3%) was correct, Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.1%) hit, Under 6.5 (97.8%) hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.6%) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (97.0%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (94.6%) hit, Under 5.5 (94.1%) hit, and Away under 3.5 goals (92.5%) hit. The model’s predictions performed strongly across the board.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aston Villa win✗ Miss
35.1%
Avg Implied 15.3% · @ 6.24
Edge
+19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Betano
6.50
1xBet
6.45
Draw✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied 22.0% · @ 4.36
Edge
+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.52
Dafabet
4.50
Pinnacle
4.47
Superbet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
Arsenal win✓ Hit
35.7%
Avg Implied 62.7% · @ 1.53
Edge
-27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Superbet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aston Villa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.23
2.00
1.36
1.19
1.12
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.50
1.25
2.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
1.20
2.00
0.50
1.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.77
1.81
0.62
1.64
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
2.10
0.65
2.30
0.40
1.90
0.90
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.5%
@ 1.24-2.5%
Under 1.5
26.5%
@ 3.92+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.29
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
BetVictor
1.23
Under
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.86
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.9%
@ 1.76-7.4%
Under 2.5
53.1%
@ 2.08+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.77
Unibet
1.77
Under
SBO
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Pinnacle
2.14
Marathonbet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.3%
@ 2.86-7.6%
Under 3.5
74.7%
@ 1.40+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.92
Superbet
2.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.2%
@ 1.85+2.5%
No
46.8%
@ 1.90-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.95
Betfair
1.90
Unibet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.83
No
Superbet
1.95
William Hil
1.95
BetVictor
1.93
Betfair
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%@ 7.77+8.0%
0-0
9.1%@ 12.25+5.3%
0-1 ✓
8.7%@ 7.05+2.1%
1-0
8.6%@ 15.39+5.6%
1-2
8.1%@ 7.82+2.2%
2-1
8.1%@ 17.57+5.4%
0-2
6.4%@ 7.11-0.1%
2-0
6.3%@ 33.64+4.9%
Aston Villa goals ↓
Arsenal goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
8.7%
6.4%
2.7%
0.9%
1
8.6%
14%
8.1%
3.5%
1.1%
2
6.3%
8.1%
5.2%
2.2%
0.7%
3
2.7%
3.4%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aston Villa goals (down), columns = Arsenal goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Aston Villa is 0.53 points worse than Arsenal in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 2.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Aston Villa is 0.39 goals worse than Arsenal in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.87).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Aston Villa is 0.58 goals worse than Arsenal in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 0.71).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Aston Villa is 2.4 percentage points worse than Arsenal in terms of average possession (53% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aston Villa
For 5.3 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 11.8 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arsenal
For 4.2 · Against 4.5 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.0 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aston Villa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.7
9.2
3.8
3.5
4.1
23.6
23.5
23.6
vs Stronger (4)
9.0
8.5
9.5
3.2
3.5
3.0
20.2
21.0
19.5
vs Similar (35)
9.9
10.5
9.5
4.0
3.8
4.3
22.5
22.1
22.9
vs Weaker (11)
7.8
7.8
7.8
3.3
2.8
3.8
28.1
28.2
28.0
% over line
56%
62%
50%
54%
50%
58%
66%
67%
65%
% under line
44%
38%
50%
46%
50%
42%
34%
33%
35%
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.8
9.2
3.5
3.0
4.0
22.1
22.2
22.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
9.3
8.4
10.4
3.9
3.2
4.6
22.9
22.8
23.0
vs Weaker (35)
8.9
9.1
8.7
3.3
2.8
3.8
21.7
21.9
21.6
% over line
44%
42%
46%
50%
50%
50%
58%
62%
54%
% under line
56%
58%
54%
50%
50%
50%
42%
38%
46%
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.7
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Tottenham
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Brighton
9.7
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Manchester United
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Aston Villa
9.4
Everton
9.3
Sunderland
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.3
Hull
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.9
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Chelsea
22.7
Sunderland
22.7
Leeds
22.1
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Newcastle
21.8
Everton
21.6
Manchester United
21.5
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
20.0
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.98
Unibet
1.96
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathonbet
1.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Betfair
1.85
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Unibet
1.93
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.83
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.87
Under
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.69
Superbet
1.64
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aston Villa or Draw✗ Miss
54.1%
Avg Implied 37.4% · @ 2.53
Edge
+16.6%
35%
29%
36%
covers Aston Villa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
1xBet
2.59
SBO
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Aston Villa or Arsenal✓ Hit
72.6%
Avg Implied 78.4% · @ 1.21
Edge
-5.7%
35%
29%
36%
covers Aston Villa + Arsenal
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Draw or Arsenal✓ Hit
73.3%
Avg Implied 84.2% · @ 1.12
Edge
-10.9%
35%
29%
36%
covers Draw + Arsenal
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aston Villa over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
68.4%
@ 1.62+11.0%
Under
31.6%
@ 2.19-11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.64
Unibet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.29
BetVictor
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Betano
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Aston Villa over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
32.0%
@ 4.09+9.0%
Under
68.0%
@ 1.22-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.25
Pinnacle
4.18
1xBet
4.15
Unibet
4.10
Under
Superbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Aston Villa over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 11.92+3.1%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.02-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Marathonbet
12.50
1xBet
12.20
Unibet
11.50
Superbet
11.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Aston Villa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 33.00+0.0%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.01-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Superbet
34.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Arsenal over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.3%
@ 1.10-5.0%
Under
20.7%
@ 5.92+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Under
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Arsenal over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
46.7%
@ 1.59-12.1%
Under
53.3%
@ 2.27+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Pinnacle
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.36
1xBet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Arsenal over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.0%
@ 2.81-12.3%
Under
79.0%
@ 1.40+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.92
Marathonbet
2.85
1xBet
2.85
Betano
2.85
Superbet
2.80
Under
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Arsenal over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 5.86-8.5%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.11+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.90
Marathonbet
5.85
Unibet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Unibet
1.11
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aston Villa, so a minus line means Aston Villa give that many goals of a start and Arsenal receive them. At -1, Aston Villa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aston Villa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aston Villa)Actual: Arsenal
Aston Villa -2
3.4%
@ 48.33+1.5%
Draw -2
7.6%
@ 18.33+2.5%
Arsenal +2
88.9%
@ 1.02-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
56.00
Bet365
51.00
Superbet
38.00
Draw
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
18.00
Superbet
16.00
Away
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Handicap -1 (Aston Villa)Actual: Arsenal
Aston Villa -1
11.1%
@ 13.53+4.5%
Draw -1
15.6%
@ 6.91+2.7%
Arsenal +1
73.3%
@ 1.11-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
15.00
Unibet
13.00
Marathonbet
7.10
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.15
Away
Marathonbet
1.13
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Handicap +1 (Aston Villa)Actual: Draw
Aston Villa +1
54.1%
@ 2.54+18.4%
Draw +1
21.8%
@ 3.55-3.8%
Arsenal -1
24.2%
@ 2.33-14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
Betfair
2.50
Unibet
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Draw
Superbet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.60
Marathonbet
3.48
Unibet
3.40
Away
Superbet
2.42
Marathonbet
2.38
Unibet
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Handicap +2 (Aston Villa)Actual: Aston Villa
Aston Villa +2
75.8%
@ 1.54+17.2%
Draw +2
14.3%
@ 4.35-6.5%
Arsenal -2
9.9%
@ 4.40-10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
Betfair
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Draw
Superbet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.10
Away
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Unibet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aston Villa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.71
0.57
0.62
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.58
0.58
0.67
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.20
1.50
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.23
1.25
0.25
0.71
0.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.30
0.50
0.33
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (20)
1.20
0.20
1.70
0.20
0.70
0.20
Clean sheet %
77% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
70.8%
@ 1.34+0.4%
Under 0.5
29.2%
@ 3.18-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
BetVictor
1.34
Under
Betfair
3.40
Pinnacle
3.36
Superbet
3.35
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.18
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.7%
@ 2.57+0.2%
Under 1.5
63.3%
@ 1.48-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.72
Pinnacle
2.64
SBO
2.63
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.60
Under
Superbet
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
1xBet
1.49
SBO
1.49
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.0%
@ 6.36+0.3%
Under 2.5
85.0%
@ 1.10-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.25
1xBet
6.20
Under
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.09
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aston Villa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
36.2%
@ 2.87+3.7%
Under
63.8%
@ 1.38-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.04
Betano
2.90
Unibet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.84
Superbet
2.77
Under
1xBet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Aston Villa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.2%
@ 10.55+0.3%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.03-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
12.00
Marathonbet
12.00
Superbet
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
Aston Villa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 30.00-2.4%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Arsenal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
55.5%
@ 1.62-2.1%
Under
44.5%
@ 2.20+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.69
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.60
Unibet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.36
Superbet
2.25
1xBet
2.22
Unibet
2.18
Betano
2.15
Arsenal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
21.2%
@ 3.93-2.4%
Under
78.8%
@ 1.21+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.05
Betano
4.00
Unibet
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Superbet
3.70
Under
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Arsenal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 9.40-4.5%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.03+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
9.80
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aston Villa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.70
1.29
0.79
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.67
1.42
0.83
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.56
0.38
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.70
0.50
0.67
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (20)
0.90
0.45
0.60
0.20
1.20
0.70
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.2%
@ 1.20+3.3%
Under 0.5
18.8%
@ 4.26-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
Under
1xBet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
Superbet
4.40
Unibet
4.30
Betano
4.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
48.8%
@ 1.99+1.2%
Under 1.5
51.2%
@ 1.80-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.05
Superbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.99
Under
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Superbet
1.82
Betano
1.82
Unibet
1.79
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.9%
@ 4.04-3.3%
Under 2.5
80.1%
@ 1.22+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
William Hil
4.20
Superbet
4.15
1xBet
3.94
Marathonbet
3.94
Under
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Unibet
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aston Villa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
45.2%
@ 2.31+5.1%
Under
54.8%
@ 1.55-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.34
1xBet
2.32
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Under
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Superbet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Aston Villa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 7.90+0.7%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.05-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
8.30
Superbet
7.50
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Aston Villa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 20.50-2.3%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
28.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Arsenal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
59.7%
@ 1.41-6.2%
Under
40.3%
@ 2.73+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Superbet
1.41
Under
1xBet
2.75
Betano
2.75
Superbet
2.70
Arsenal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
28.4%
@ 2.88-3.9%
Under
71.6%
@ 1.37+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.92
Marathonbet
2.89
1xBet
2.85
Betano
2.85
Under
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Arsenal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 6.93-5.8%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.07+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.30
Superbet
7.10
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.04
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.1%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.04
BetVictor
1.03
Unibet
1.03
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.5%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Unibet
1.11
+8.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.4%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.04
-
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
-
-
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.0%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
88.9%
1.02
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.6%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.9%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.13
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.0%
1.10
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.09
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.2%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.1%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Unibet
1.22
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
79.3%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
-5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
79.0%
1.40
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
+12.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
78.8%
1.21
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
75.8%
1.54
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
Betfair
1.53
Unibet
1.53
+17.2%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.7%
1.40
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.42
Betfair
1.40
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.5%
1.24
Pinnacle
1.29
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
BetVictor
1.23
-2.5%
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
73.3%
1.12
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
-10.9%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
73.3%
1.11
Marathonbet
1.13
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.08
-
-7.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.6%
1.21
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
-5.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
71.6%
1.37
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.8%
1.34
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
BetVictor
1.34
+0.4%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aston Villa · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jamaldeen Jimoh33%
Ollie Watkins27%
Emiliano Buendía20%
Morgan Rogers20%
Tammy Abraham19%
John McGinn18%
Donyell Malen17%
Ross Barkley13%
Harvey Elliott11%
Evann Guessand10%
Matty Cash6%
Youri Tielemans6%
Leon Bailey5%
Amadou Onana5%
Douglas Luiz5%
Tyrone Mings5%
Ezri Konsa4%
Boubacar Kamara4%
Jadon Sancho3%
Ian Maatsen2%
Victor Lindelöf0%
Lucas Digne0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Marco Bizot0%
Pau Torres0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
George Hemmings0%
Andrés García0%
Alysson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matty Cash24%
Marco Bizot21%
Boubacar Kamara19%
John McGinn18%
Emiliano Buendía17%
Morgan Rogers16%
Lamare Bogarde16%
Douglas Luiz15%
Lucas Digne14%
Andrés García12%
Amadou Onana11%
Evann Guessand10%
Ollie Watkins7%
Victor Lindelöf7%
Emiliano Martínez7%
Ian Maatsen7%
Youri Tielemans6%
Leon Bailey5%
Tyrone Mings5%
Ross Barkley4%
Pau Torres3%
Ezri Konsa2%
Jadon Sancho0%
Donyell Malen0%
Harvey Elliott0%
Tammy Abraham0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh0%
George Hemmings0%
Alysson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Morgan Rogers20%
Youri Tielemans17%
Emiliano Buendía17%
Lucas Digne16%
John McGinn16%
Boubacar Kamara15%
Ollie Watkins9%
Matty Cash8%
Jadon Sancho8%
Donyell Malen7%
Tammy Abraham6%
Leon Bailey5%
Douglas Luiz5%
Evann Guessand5%
Ross Barkley4%
Victor Lindelöf4%
Emiliano Martínez2%
Ian Maatsen2%
Harvey Elliott0%
Tyrone Mings0%
Ezri Konsa0%
Marco Bizot0%
Pau Torres0%
Amadou Onana0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh0%
George Hemmings0%
Andrés García0%
Alysson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamaldeen Jimoh33%
Morgan Rogers24%
Ollie Watkins24%
Emiliano Buendía13%
Harvey Elliott11%
Donyell Malen10%
Evann Guessand10%
Youri Tielemans6%
Ross Barkley4%
Amadou Onana3%
Jadon Sancho3%
John McGinn2%
Ian Maatsen2%
Matty Cash2%
Victor Lindelöf0%
Leon Bailey0%
Boubacar Kamara0%
Lucas Digne0%
Tyrone Mings0%
Tammy Abraham0%
Ezri Konsa0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Marco Bizot0%
Pau Torres0%
Douglas Luiz0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
George Hemmings0%
Andrés García0%
Alysson0%
Arsenal · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Viktor Gyökeres30%
Kai Havertz26%
Bukayo Saka22%
Gabriel Jesus19%
Gabriel Martinelli17%
Leandro Trossard16%
Mikel Merino15%
Noni Madueke14%
Eberechi Eze14%
Martín Zubimendi9%
Ethan Nwaneri8%
Gabriel Magalhães8%
Max Dowman8%
Declan Rice7%
Jurriën Timber7%
Ben White3%
Martin Ødegaard3%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Piero Hincapié3%
William Saliba2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Christian Nørgaard0%
Myles Lewis-Skelly0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Marli Salmon0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kepa Arrizabalaga36%
Riccardo Calafiori19%
Martín Zubimendi14%
Cristhian Mosquera14%
Jurriën Timber14%
Myles Lewis-Skelly14%
Declan Rice13%
Mikel Merino12%
Gabriel Jesus11%
Viktor Gyökeres11%
Ben White10%
Gabriel Magalhães10%
Christian Nørgaard10%
Gabriel Martinelli10%
Kai Havertz9%
Piero Hincapié8%
Bukayo Saka6%
Leandro Trossard6%
William Saliba6%
Eberechi Eze4%
Noni Madueke2%
David Raya2%
Martin Ødegaard0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Max Dowman0%
Marli Salmon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kai Havertz22%
Leandro Trossard20%
Martin Ødegaard19%
Declan Rice15%
Bukayo Saka14%
Jurriën Timber14%
Gabriel Martinelli13%
Myles Lewis-Skelly11%
Gabriel Magalhães10%
Christian Nørgaard10%
Mikel Merino9%
Eberechi Eze8%
Ben White7%
Viktor Gyökeres6%
Riccardo Calafiori6%
Piero Hincapié5%
Noni Madueke5%
Gabriel Jesus4%
Martín Zubimendi4%
William Saliba2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Max Dowman0%
Marli Salmon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Viktor Gyökeres24%
Bukayo Saka18%
Leandro Trossard16%
Eberechi Eze16%
Max Dowman15%
Gabriel Jesus15%
Mikel Merino12%
Noni Madueke10%
Kai Havertz9%
Ethan Nwaneri8%
Gabriel Martinelli8%
Martin Ødegaard6%
Jurriën Timber5%
Declan Rice4%
Martín Zubimendi4%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Gabriel Magalhães2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Ben White0%
William Saliba0%
Christian Nørgaard0%
Piero Hincapié0%
Myles Lewis-Skelly0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Marli Salmon0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Aston Villa's squad is €870m less valuable than Arsenal's (€536m vs €1406m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Aston Villa's attack is €388m less valuable than Arsenal's (€220m vs €608m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Aston Villa's midfield is €130m less valuable than Arsenal's (€160m vs €290m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Aston Villa's defence is €352m less valuable than Arsenal's (€156m vs €508m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Tottenham