Aston Villa’s recent return to form after a 0-4 loss to Brighton sets the stage for a home win, the model’s favourite outcome. The Premier League fixture carries a 45% chance of a Villa victory, 27% for a draw and 27% for a Brighton win, so the odds tilt toward the hosts. The average goal tally sits at 2.8, with the most likely total being two goals at a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13% chance, though the final result could still swing to a 1-0 win for Villa.
Villa’s home form shows an average of 2.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, while Brighton’s away numbers are 1.64 scored and 1.45 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 81.5%, Under 25.5 fouls at 81.2%, Over 1.5 at 77.3% (miss), Under 5.5 cards at 72.0%, Over 8.5 corners at 70.5% and Under 3.5 at 70.1%. Each selection is presented with its exact probability.
Results analysis
Aston Villa’s win over Brighton extended their recent run, with a 1-0 victory that matched the model’s predicted home win. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 45% probability and proved correct. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 2.5 cards hit at 81.5%, Under 25.5 fouls hit at 81.2%, Over 1.5 missed at 77.3%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 72.0%, Over 8.5 corners hit at 70.5%, and Under 3.5 hit at 70.1%. All figures appear once, and the final score of 1-0 confirms the favoured outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aston Villa win✓ Hit
45.3%
Avg Implied 46.0% · @ 2.06
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.69
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Brighton win✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.34
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aston Villa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.00
1.86
0.71
1.62
1.25
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.67
1.50
0.50
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (19)
1.95
1.00
2.50
1.00
1.69
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.75
1.33
0.50
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brighton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.23
1.54
1.08
1.88
1.35
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.60
2.00
1.00
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (23)
1.57
1.26
1.50
1.08
1.64
1.45
vs Weaker (2)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.0%
@ 1.61-6.5%
Under 2.5
48.0%
@ 2.27+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.9%
Under 3.5
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.2%
No
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
2-1
9.3%
1-0 ✓
8.8%
2-0
7.9%
0-0
7.5%
1-2
7.0%
0-1
6.3%
2-2
5.5%
Aston Villa goals ↓
Brighton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
6.3%
4.4%
1.7%
0.5%
1
8.8%
13%
7.0%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.9%
9.3%
5.5%
2.2%
0.6%
3
4.1%
4.9%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.6%
1.9%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aston Villa goals (down), columns = Brighton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Newcastle
1.29
Everton
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
West Ham
1.03
Burnley
0.58
Wolves
0.53
Aston Villa is 0.32 points better than Brighton in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Tottenham
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
West Ham
1.21
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Burnley
1.00
Wolves
0.71
Aston Villa is 0.11 goals better than Brighton in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Manchester United
1.32
Everton
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
West Ham
1.71
Wolves
1.79
Burnley
1.97
Aston Villa is 0.08 goals worse than Brighton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
West Ham
42%
Burnley
42%
Aston Villa is 0.1 percentage points worse than Brighton in terms of average possession (53% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aston Villa
For 5.4 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 12.1 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brighton
For 4.2 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 10.6 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aston Villa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.3
9.8
3.8
3.3
4.2
22.9
23.4
22.4
vs Stronger (6)
9.2
9.0
9.3
3.3
2.7
4.0
20.5
20.0
21.0
vs Similar (33)
9.6
9.7
9.6
4.1
3.5
4.5
22.2
22.0
22.4
vs Weaker (11)
9.8
8.7
11.5
3.5
3.3
3.6
26.4
28.2
23.8
% over line
61%
59%
63%
56%
45%
64%
59%
64%
56%
% under line
39%
41%
37%
44%
55%
36%
41%
36%
44%
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brighton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.3
9.3
4.0
3.4
4.5
22.2
22.0
22.4
vs Stronger (7)
7.3
5.5
8.0
4.1
2.5
4.8
22.1
23.5
21.6
vs Similar (41)
9.6
9.7
9.6
4.0
3.5
4.7
22.2
21.8
22.6
vs Weaker (2)
10.0
-
10.0
2.0
-
2.0
22.5
-
22.5
% over line
53%
50%
56%
58%
50%
65%
53%
45%
60%
% under line
47%
50%
44%
42%
50%
35%
47%
55%
40%
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.6
Liverpool
10.5
Bournemouth
10.5
Nottingham Forest
10.2
Fulham
9.9
Manchester United
9.8
Brentford
9.8
Tottenham
9.8
West Ham
9.7
Everton
9.6
Aston Villa
9.5
Chelsea
9.4
Leeds
9.4
Arsenal
9.4
Brighton
9.3
Wolves
9.2
Burnley
9.0
Manchester City
8.9
Sunderland
8.9
Crystal Palace
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.7
Chelsea
4.6
Sunderland
4.3
Manchester United
4.2
Brighton
4.2
Tottenham
4.2
Crystal Palace
4.1
Newcastle
4.0
Nottingham Forest
4.0
Aston Villa
3.9
Manchester City
3.8
Wolves
3.8
Everton
3.7
Brentford
3.6
Fulham
3.6
West Ham
3.5
Burnley
3.3
Arsenal
3.3
Liverpool
3.2
Leeds
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
24.2
Bournemouth
24.1
West Ham
23.0
Chelsea
22.9
Nottingham Forest
22.8
Aston Villa
22.8
Everton
22.6
Tottenham
22.4
Brighton
22.3
Sunderland
22.0
Arsenal
21.7
Manchester United
21.7
Leeds
21.3
Newcastle
21.1
Burnley
21.0
Manchester City
20.3
Crystal Palace
20.1
Fulham
20.0
Liverpool
19.8
Brentford
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.5%
Under 9.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
64.0%
Under 3.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
48.1%
Under 21.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aston Villa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.86
0.29
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.63
0.83
0.67
0.69
0.62
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.25
0.83
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brighton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.54
0.46
0.53
0.71
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.75
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.61
0.58
0.42
0.36
0.82
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
-
-
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aston Villa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aston Villa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
1.00
0.43
0.94
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (19)
1.21
0.37
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.38
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brighton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.63
1.00
0.62
1.35
0.65
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.09
0.65
0.92
0.67
1.27
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.00
-
-
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aston Villa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aston Villa
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jamaldeen Jimoh33%
Ollie Watkins27%
Emiliano Buendía20%
Morgan Rogers20%
Tammy Abraham19%
John McGinn18%
Donyell Malen17%
Ross Barkley13%
Harvey Elliott11%
Evann Guessand10%
Matty Cash6%
Youri Tielemans6%
Leon Bailey5%
Amadou Onana5%
Douglas Luiz5%
Tyrone Mings5%
Ezri Konsa4%
Boubacar Kamara4%
Jadon Sancho3%
Ian Maatsen2%
Victor Lindelöf0%
Lucas Digne0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Marco Bizot0%
Pau Torres0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
George Hemmings0%
Andrés García0%
Alysson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matty Cash24%
Marco Bizot21%
Boubacar Kamara19%
John McGinn18%
Emiliano Buendía17%
Morgan Rogers16%
Lamare Bogarde16%
Douglas Luiz15%
Lucas Digne14%
Andrés García12%
Amadou Onana11%
Evann Guessand10%
Ollie Watkins7%
Victor Lindelöf7%
Emiliano Martínez7%
Ian Maatsen7%
Youri Tielemans6%
Leon Bailey5%
Tyrone Mings5%
Ross Barkley4%
Pau Torres3%
Ezri Konsa2%
Jadon Sancho0%
Donyell Malen0%
Harvey Elliott0%
Tammy Abraham0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh0%
George Hemmings0%
Alysson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Morgan Rogers20%
Youri Tielemans17%
Emiliano Buendía17%
Lucas Digne16%
John McGinn16%
Boubacar Kamara15%
Ollie Watkins9%
Matty Cash8%
Jadon Sancho8%
Donyell Malen7%
Tammy Abraham6%
Leon Bailey5%
Douglas Luiz5%
Evann Guessand5%
Ross Barkley4%
Victor Lindelöf4%
Emiliano Martínez2%
Ian Maatsen2%
Harvey Elliott0%
Tyrone Mings0%
Ezri Konsa0%
Marco Bizot0%
Pau Torres0%
Amadou Onana0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh0%
George Hemmings0%
Andrés García0%
Alysson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamaldeen Jimoh33%
Morgan Rogers24%
Ollie Watkins24%
Emiliano Buendía13%
Harvey Elliott11%
Donyell Malen10%
Evann Guessand10%
Youri Tielemans6%
Ross Barkley4%
Amadou Onana3%
Jadon Sancho3%
John McGinn2%
Ian Maatsen2%
Matty Cash2%
Victor Lindelöf0%
Leon Bailey0%
Boubacar Kamara0%
Lucas Digne0%
Tyrone Mings0%
Tammy Abraham0%
Ezri Konsa0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Marco Bizot0%
Pau Torres0%
Douglas Luiz0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
George Hemmings0%
Andrés García0%
Alysson0%
Brighton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Danny Welbeck28%
Matt O'Riley17%
Stefanos Tzimas17%
Harry Howell17%
Diego Gómez16%
Brajan Gruda15%
Jack Hinshelwood13%
Yasin Ayari12%
Kaoru Mitoma11%
Tom Watson10%
Georginio Rutter9%
Yankuba Minteh8%
Charalampos Kostoulas8%
Maxim De Cuyper6%
Olivier Boscagli6%
Jan Paul van Hecke5%
Pascal Groß5%
James Milner5%
Joël Veltman4%
Mats Wieffer4%
Lewis Dunk3%
Ferdi Kadıoğlu2%
Jason Steele0%
Solly March0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Diego Coppola0%
Carlos Baleba0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Diego Coppola33%
Lewis Dunk32%
Mats Wieffer29%
Diego Gómez27%
Jan Paul van Hecke25%
Carlos Baleba20%
Kaoru Mitoma19%
Joël Veltman18%
Olivier Boscagli18%
Ferdi Kadıoğlu17%
Danny Welbeck12%
Charalampos Kostoulas12%
Brajan Gruda10%
Tom Watson10%
Pascal Groß10%
James Milner9%
Stefanos Tzimas8%
Yankuba Minteh8%
Bart Verbruggen8%
Maxim De Cuyper6%
Georginio Rutter6%
Yasin Ayari3%
Jason Steele0%
Solly March0%
Matt O'Riley0%
Jack Hinshelwood0%
Harry Howell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Diego Coppola22%
Stefanos Tzimas17%
Harry Howell17%
Brajan Gruda15%
Pascal Groß14%
Yankuba Minteh11%
Mats Wieffer11%
Jack Hinshelwood10%
Tom Watson10%
Yasin Ayari9%
Georginio Rutter9%
Jan Paul van Hecke8%
Maxim De Cuyper6%
Olivier Boscagli6%
Danny Welbeck5%
James Milner5%
Charalampos Kostoulas4%
Kaoru Mitoma4%
Joël Veltman4%
Diego Gómez3%
Ferdi Kadıoğlu0%
Jason Steele0%
Lewis Dunk0%
Solly March0%
Matt O'Riley0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Carlos Baleba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Matt O'Riley17%
Danny Welbeck15%
Yasin Ayari12%
Diego Gómez11%
Kaoru Mitoma7%
Jack Hinshelwood7%
Georginio Rutter6%
Brajan Gruda5%
Charalampos Kostoulas4%
Lewis Dunk3%
Jan Paul van Hecke2%
Ferdi Kadıoğlu2%
James Milner0%
Joël Veltman0%
Jason Steele0%
Pascal Groß0%
Solly March0%
Olivier Boscagli0%
Mats Wieffer0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Maxim De Cuyper0%
Tom Watson0%
Diego Coppola0%
Stefanos Tzimas0%
Carlos Baleba0%
Yankuba Minteh0%
Harry Howell0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
BUR (28)
€115m
Aston Villa's squad is €84m less valuable than Brighton's (€536m vs €620m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
BUR (14)
€70m
Aston Villa's attack is €30m more valuable than Brighton's (€220m vs €190m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
FUL (3)
€28m
BUR (3)
€8m
Aston Villa's midfield is €20m less valuable than Brighton's (€160m vs €180m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
BUR (11)
€37m
Aston Villa's defence is €92m less valuable than Brighton's (€156m vs €249m).
England: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Arsenal
Manchester City
Manchester United
Liverpool
Bournemouth
Sunderland
Brentford
Chelsea
Fulham
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
West Ham
Burnley
Wolves