Aston Villa’s recent five games, ending with two defeats, set a cautious tone for the match, while Newcastle’s two-game winning streak against Tottenham fuels confidence at home. The model’s probabilities favour a home win at 58%, a draw at 21% and an away win also at 21%, making the home side the clear favourite. The expected total goals is 3.7, with the most likely total being three goals at 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Villa, with a 9.2% chance. Villa’s home form shows an average of 3.33 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Newcastle’s away form averages 0.62 goals scored and 2.12 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 95.4%, Over 1.5 goals at 89.0%, Over 3.5 cards at 88.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 87.7%, Over 21.5 fouls at 76.9%, Over 4.5 cards at 76.5%, Under 11.5 corners at 71.3% and Over 2.5 goals at 71.1% with a 10% edge. The model’s edge lies in the high probability of a 2-1 Villa win, reflecting the team’s strong home scoring and Newcastle’s defensive struggles.
Results analysis
Aston Villa’s form had been shaky, with a last-five record of LLWWW and a recent 0-1 loss to Arsenal, yet the model still tipped a home win at 58%. The match delivered a 1-3 away victory for Newcastle, proving the model’s favourite wrong. The pre-match favourite’s probability was 58%, but the outcome was an away win. The model’s other selections all hit: Over 2.5 cards at 95.4%, Over 1.5 at 89.0%, Over 3.5 cards at 88.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 87.7%, Over 21.5 fouls at 76.9%, Over 4.5 cards at 76.5%, and Over 2.5 at 71.1%. Only the Under 11.5 corners pick at 71.3% missed. The expected total of 3.7 goals was close to the 3-goal final tally.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aston Villa win✗ Miss
58.2%
Avg Implied 51.3% · @ 1.88
Edge
+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.0%
Avg Implied 24.0% · @ 4.02
Edge
-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Newcastle win✓ Hit
20.7%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.89
Edge
-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aston Villa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.17
2.60
0.73
1.73
1.60
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
2.27
1.60
3.33
1.00
1.56
2.00
vs Weaker (13)
2.23
0.85
2.43
0.71
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newcastle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.37
2.12
0.94
1.29
1.86
vs Stronger (7)
1.57
1.71
2.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.63
1.37
2.36
0.82
0.62
2.12
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
0.75
0.00
0.00
3.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.0%
Under 1.5
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
71.1%
@ 1.56+9.8%
Under 2.5
28.9%
@ 2.47-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.2%
Under 3.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.8%
No
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.2%
1-1
8.8%
3-1
7.2%
2-0
6.8%
2-2
6.3%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
5.3%
1-0
5.1%
Aston Villa goals ↓
Newcastle goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
2.6%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
1
5.1%
8.8%
5.4%
2.4%
0.8%
2
6.8%
9.2%
6.3%
2.8%
1.0%
3
5.3%
7.2%
4.9%
2.2%
0.7%
4
3.1%
4.2%
2.8%
1.3%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aston Villa goals (down), columns = Newcastle goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Manchester City
2.39
Arsenal
2.34
Liverpool
2.16
Aston Villa
1.79
Tottenham
1.74
Chelsea
1.66
Newcastle
1.58
Manchester United
1.58
West Ham
1.37
Crystal Palace
1.29
Brighton
1.26
Bournemouth
1.26
Everton
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Wolves
1.21
Brentford
1.03
Nottingham Forest
0.95
Luton
0.68
Burnley
0.63
Sheffield United
0.42
Aston Villa is 0.21 points better than Newcastle in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 1.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.53
Arsenal
2.39
Liverpool
2.26
Newcastle
2.24
Chelsea
2.03
Aston Villa
2.00
Tottenham
1.95
West Ham
1.58
Crystal Palace
1.50
Manchester United
1.50
Brentford
1.47
Fulham
1.45
Brighton
1.45
Bournemouth
1.42
Luton
1.37
Wolves
1.32
Nottingham Forest
1.29
Burnley
1.08
Everton
1.05
Sheffield United
0.92
Aston Villa is 0.24 goals worse than Newcastle in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 2.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.76
Manchester City
0.89
Liverpool
1.08
Everton
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.53
Manchester United
1.53
Fulham
1.61
Aston Villa
1.61
Tottenham
1.61
Brighton
1.63
Newcastle
1.63
Chelsea
1.66
Brentford
1.71
Wolves
1.71
Nottingham Forest
1.76
Bournemouth
1.76
West Ham
1.95
Burnley
2.05
Luton
2.24
Sheffield United
2.74
Aston Villa is 0.03 goals better than Newcastle in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
66%
Tottenham
62%
Liverpool
61%
Brighton
60%
Arsenal
59%
Chelsea
58%
Aston Villa
53%
Newcastle
52%
Manchester United
51%
Fulham
50%
Burnley
47%
Brentford
45%
Bournemouth
45%
Crystal Palace
42%
Luton
42%
West Ham
41%
Nottingham Forest
40%
Everton
40%
Sheffield United
35%
Aston Villa is 1.1 percentage points better than Newcastle in terms of average possession (53% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aston Villa
For 6.7 · Against 3.3 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.9 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 13.4 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newcastle
For 5.0 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 12.6 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aston Villa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.4
10.8
4.7
4.9
4.5
23.8
24.0
23.6
vs Stronger (4)
8.8
7.7
12.0
4.0
4.3
3.0
24.2
23.3
27.0
vs Similar (27)
10.4
8.9
11.9
5.1
5.2
5.1
24.0
25.2
22.9
vs Weaker (19)
9.8
10.6
9.2
4.3
4.8
3.8
23.5
22.6
24.3
% over line
60%
48%
72%
68%
76%
60%
64%
60%
68%
% under line
40%
52%
28%
32%
24%
40%
36%
40%
32%
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newcastle
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.4
10.3
4.5
4.6
4.4
22.7
22.5
23.0
vs Stronger (11)
10.8
12.7
8.6
5.7
4.3
7.4
22.6
21.2
24.4
vs Similar (32)
10.5
10.6
10.5
4.4
4.9
3.8
23.7
24.0
23.3
vs Weaker (7)
12.1
13.0
11.5
3.0
3.3
2.8
18.7
17.3
19.8
% over line
66%
72%
60%
56%
56%
56%
52%
48%
56%
% under line
34%
28%
40%
44%
44%
44%
48%
52%
44%
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Manchester United
11.7
Bournemouth
11.6
Tottenham
11.5
Newcastle
10.8
Liverpool
10.5
Luton
10.5
West Ham
10.4
Sheffield United
10.3
Wolves
10.2
Everton
10.1
Brentford
10.1
Aston Villa
10.1
Chelsea
10.1
Burnley
10.0
Fulham
10.0
Nottingham Forest
9.8
Crystal Palace
9.7
Manchester City
9.6
Arsenal
9.6
Brighton
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Chelsea
5.1
Brighton
4.8
Wolves
4.8
Aston Villa
4.8
Tottenham
4.8
Newcastle
4.5
Sheffield United
4.4
Crystal Palace
4.3
Burnley
4.2
Nottingham Forest
4.1
Everton
4.0
Manchester City
4.0
Manchester United
3.9
Liverpool
3.9
Luton
3.8
Brentford
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Bournemouth
3.6
Arsenal
3.6
West Ham
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
24.3
Crystal Palace
24.2
Chelsea
24.0
Aston Villa
23.8
Tottenham
23.8
Brighton
23.0
Luton
23.0
Newcastle
22.7
Nottingham Forest
22.0
Liverpool
22.0
Fulham
21.9
Everton
21.9
Brentford
21.4
Bournemouth
21.0
Arsenal
21.0
Burnley
21.0
Manchester City
20.7
Sheffield United
20.6
Manchester United
20.6
West Ham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.4%
Under 9.5
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
88.1%
Under 3.5
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
76.9%
Under 21.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aston Villa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.43
1.13
0.20
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.60
1.33
0.17
0.78
0.89
vs Weaker (13)
1.15
0.31
1.14
0.29
1.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newcastle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
1.00
0.31
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
0.29
1.25
0.25
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.53
1.00
0.36
0.12
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aston Villa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aston Villa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.73
1.47
0.53
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.27
1.00
2.00
0.83
0.78
1.11
vs Weaker (13)
1.08
0.54
1.29
0.43
0.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newcastle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.90
1.12
0.62
0.79
1.21
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.43
0.75
1.25
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (19)
1.00
0.84
1.36
0.45
0.50
1.38
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aston Villa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
71.1%
1.56
-
-
-
-
-
+9.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aston Villa
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ollie Watkins41%
Leon Bailey29%
Jhon Durán20%
Morgan Rogers19%
John McGinn18%
Moussa Diaby18%
Douglas Luiz16%
Álex Moreno12%
Nicolò Zaniolo9%
Leander Dendoncker8%
Matty Cash7%
Youri Tielemans7%
Jacob Ramsey5%
Pau Torres5%
Lucas Digne4%
Diego Carlos3%
Ezri Konsa2%
Clément Lenglet0%
Bertrand Traoré0%
Robin Olsen0%
Boubacar Kamara0%
Calum Chambers0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Tim Iroegbunam0%
Kaine Kesler-Hayden0%
Omari Kellyman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicolò Zaniolo31%
Morgan Rogers31%
Douglas Luiz31%
Boubacar Kamara27%
Matty Cash24%
Jhon Durán23%
John McGinn22%
Lucas Digne20%
Clément Lenglet18%
Emiliano Martínez14%
Ezri Konsa13%
Leon Bailey12%
Calum Chambers12%
Ollie Watkins12%
Youri Tielemans12%
Diego Carlos11%
Jacob Ramsey11%
Moussa Diaby8%
Álex Moreno8%
Tim Iroegbunam7%
Pau Torres3%
Bertrand Traoré0%
Robin Olsen0%
Leander Dendoncker0%
Kaine Kesler-Hayden0%
Omari Kellyman0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Leon Bailey27%
Ollie Watkins20%
Omari Kellyman20%
Moussa Diaby18%
Douglas Luiz16%
Youri Tielemans16%
John McGinn14%
Calum Chambers12%
Lucas Digne9%
Matty Cash7%
Morgan Rogers6%
Jacob Ramsey5%
Clément Lenglet5%
Boubacar Kamara4%
Diego Carlos3%
Pau Torres3%
Bertrand Traoré0%
Robin Olsen0%
Nicolò Zaniolo0%
Leander Dendoncker0%
Jhon Durán0%
Ezri Konsa0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Álex Moreno0%
Tim Iroegbunam0%
Kaine Kesler-Hayden0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ollie Watkins41%
Moussa Diaby12%
Nicolò Zaniolo9%
Jhon Durán9%
Douglas Luiz8%
Leon Bailey6%
John McGinn6%
Jacob Ramsey5%
Matty Cash5%
Álex Moreno4%
Diego Carlos3%
Youri Tielemans2%
Clément Lenglet0%
Bertrand Traoré0%
Robin Olsen0%
Boubacar Kamara0%
Lucas Digne0%
Leander Dendoncker0%
Calum Chambers0%
Morgan Rogers0%
Ezri Konsa0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Pau Torres0%
Tim Iroegbunam0%
Kaine Kesler-Hayden0%
Omari Kellyman0%
Newcastle
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alexander Isak49%
Callum Wilson33%
Anthony Gordon27%
Harvey Barnes18%
Sean Longstaff15%
Bruno Guimarães14%
Joelinton12%
Jacob Murphy12%
Sven Botman11%
Miguel Almirón10%
Fabian Schär10%
Joe Willock9%
Sandro Tonali9%
Dan Burn8%
Matt Ritchie8%
Lewis Hall5%
Lewis Miley5%
Jamaal Lascelles5%
Valentino Livramento3%
Kieran Trippier3%
Emil Krafth0%
Martin Dúbravka0%
Paul Dummett0%
Nick Pope0%
Matt Targett0%
Joe White0%
Elliot Anderson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joelinton33%
Anthony Gordon29%
Joe White25%
Bruno Guimarães23%
Matt Targett20%
Jamaal Lascelles19%
Sandro Tonali18%
Sean Longstaff18%
Fabian Schär17%
Lewis Hall16%
Nick Pope15%
Kieran Trippier15%
Elliot Anderson13%
Callum Wilson12%
Emil Krafth12%
Sven Botman11%
Dan Burn11%
Harvey Barnes9%
Miguel Almirón8%
Matt Ritchie8%
Lewis Miley5%
Martin Dúbravka4%
Jacob Murphy4%
Valentino Livramento3%
Alexander Isak3%
Joe Willock0%
Paul Dummett0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kieran Trippier26%
Jacob Murphy25%
Anthony Gordon22%
Lewis Miley20%
Bruno Guimarães19%
Harvey Barnes14%
Sven Botman11%
Elliot Anderson9%
Alexander Isak6%
Dan Burn5%
Sean Longstaff5%
Joelinton4%
Callum Wilson4%
Miguel Almirón3%
Fabian Schär2%
Joe Willock0%
Emil Krafth0%
Martin Dúbravka0%
Paul Dummett0%
Jamaal Lascelles0%
Matt Ritchie0%
Nick Pope0%
Matt Targett0%
Sandro Tonali0%
Joe White0%
Valentino Livramento0%
Lewis Hall0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alexander Isak34%
Callum Wilson21%
Anthony Gordon17%
Miguel Almirón13%
Joelinton12%
Elliot Anderson9%
Lewis Miley5%
Harvey Barnes5%
Jacob Murphy4%
Sean Longstaff2%
Fabian Schär2%
Kieran Trippier0%
Joe Willock0%
Emil Krafth0%
Bruno Guimarães0%
Martin Dúbravka0%
Paul Dummett0%
Jamaal Lascelles0%
Matt Ritchie0%
Nick Pope0%
Matt Targett0%
Dan Burn0%
Sandro Tonali0%
Sven Botman0%
Joe White0%
Valentino Livramento0%
Lewis Hall0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
FUL (21)
€329m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
LUT (26)
€29m
Aston Villa's squad is €32m less valuable than Newcastle's (€536m vs €568m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
BUR (14)
€70m
SHU (9)
€29m
LUT (10)
€13m
Aston Villa's attack is €14m less valuable than Newcastle's (€220m vs €234m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
BOU (6)
€106m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
SHU (5)
€32m
FUL (3)
€28m
BUR (3)
€8m
LUT (6)
€4m
Aston Villa's midfield is €36m more valuable than Newcastle's (€160m vs €124m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
SHU (13)
€49m
BUR (11)
€37m
LUT (10)
€12m
Aston Villa's defence is €53m less valuable than Newcastle's (€156m vs €210m).
England: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Arsenal
Liverpool
Tottenham
Chelsea
Manchester United
West Ham
Crystal Palace
Brighton
Everton
Bournemouth
Fulham
Wolves
Brentford
Nottingham Forest
Luton
Burnley
Sheffield United