Aston Villa are tipped to win, with a 50% chance of triumph, a 27% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of Nottingham Forest taking the victory. The model expects 2.7 goals overall, with the most likely total being two goals at 25%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.7% probability. Villa, playing at home against a similar-strength side, average two goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Forest, on the road, average 1.9 scored and 1.4 conceded. The suggested picks are: Under 7.5 goals 98.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals98.0% (edge 5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals96.5% (edge 5%), Away under 2.5 2H goals95.9% (edge 4%), Under 6.5 goals 95.8%, Home under 2.5 2H goals94.6% (edge 5%), Away under 3.5 goals93.7%, Home under 3.5 goals90.9% (edge 1%). The match shape points to a tight contest with Villa likely edging out a narrow win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aston Villa win
50.0%
Avg Implied 48.4% · @ 1.95
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Betano
1.98
Unibet
1.98
Draw
26.3%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.56
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.78
Marathonbet
3.72
Pinnacle
3.63
Dafabet
3.60
Unibet
3.60
Nottingham Forest win
23.7%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.75
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Betano
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Bet365
3.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aston Villa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.27
1.87
1.33
1.27
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.57
1.30
2.00
1.50
1.09
1.09
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
1.20
2.00
0.50
1.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nottingham Forest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.07
0.94
0.75
1.93
1.43
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
1.00
0.33
0.33
2.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
1.43
1.09
1.08
0.85
1.90
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.0%
@ 1.28+4.6%
Under 1.5
22.0%
@ 3.53-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Under
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Betano
3.50
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.1%
@ 1.89+2.6%
Under 2.5
46.9%
@ 1.92-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Under
SBO
1.99
1xBet
1.97
10Bet
1.91
Unibet
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.8%
@ 3.19+1.4%
Under 3.5
69.2%
@ 1.33-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.26
Betano
3.25
Unibet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Under
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Both teams to score
Yes
55.8%
@ 1.73+2.0%
No
44.2%
@ 2.01-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.75
Bet365
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
No
Betfair
2.10
William Hil
2.05
Betano
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%@ 6.39+5.5%
2-1
9.7%@ 7.86+3.9%
1-0
9.2%@ 7.16+2.9%
2-0
8.7%@ 8.91+3.7%
0-0
7.2%@ 10.51+2.9%
1-2
6.3%@ 11.83+2.5%
0-1
5.6%@ 10.63+1.4%
3-1
5.4%@ 13.92+2.2%
Aston Villa goals ↓
Nottingham Forest goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
5.6%
3.7%
1.4%
0.4%
1
9.2%
13%
6.3%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.7%
5.3%
2.0%
0.5%
3
4.9%
5.4%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.1%
2.3%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aston Villa goals (down), columns = Nottingham Forest goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brentford
1.39
Brighton
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Aston Villa is 0.55 points better than Nottingham Forest in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Aston Villa is 0.21 goals better than Nottingham Forest in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Aston Villa is 0.05 goals better than Nottingham Forest in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.34).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Aston Villa is 7.3 percentage points better than Nottingham Forest in terms of average possession (53% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aston Villa
For 5.1 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.3 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nottingham Forest
For 4.0 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 11.6 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aston Villa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.4
9.1
3.3
3.0
3.6
23.6
23.5
23.8
vs Stronger (6)
7.8
6.0
9.5
2.0
2.0
2.0
20.0
20.5
19.5
vs Similar (33)
10.1
10.5
9.6
3.7
3.4
4.0
22.5
22.0
22.9
vs Weaker (11)
7.2
7.4
7.0
2.7
2.2
3.4
29.2
29.0
29.5
% over line
52%
55%
50%
46%
40%
52%
64%
64%
64%
% under line
48%
45%
50%
54%
60%
48%
36%
36%
36%
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nottingham Forest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.1
10.3
3.4
2.8
4.1
23.3
22.4
24.2
vs Stronger (11)
9.6
9.8
9.4
3.5
3.5
3.4
21.9
24.3
19.0
vs Similar (39)
9.7
8.8
10.5
3.4
2.6
4.3
23.7
21.7
25.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
51%
48%
54%
46%
35%
58%
63%
56%
71%
% under line
49%
52%
46%
54%
65%
42%
37%
44%
29%
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.7
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Tottenham
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Brighton
9.7
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Manchester United
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Everton
9.3
Aston Villa
9.3
Sunderland
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.3
Hull
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.9
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Chelsea
22.7
Sunderland
22.7
Leeds
22.1
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Newcastle
21.8
Everton
21.6
Manchester United
21.5
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
20.0
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.3%
@ 1.62-3.4%
Under 9.5
46.7%
@ 2.12+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.62
Under
Unibet
2.12
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.2%
Under 3.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
57.5%
Under 21.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aston Villa or Draw
67.1%
Avg Implied 74.7% · @ 1.26
Edge
-7.6%
50%
26%
24%
covers Aston Villa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Aston Villa or Nottingham Forest
74.4%
Avg Implied 73.9% · @ 1.27
Edge
+0.5%
50%
26%
24%
covers Aston Villa + Nottingham Forest
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Draw or Nottingham Forest
58.4%
Avg Implied 51.4% · @ 1.83
Edge
+7.1%
50%
26%
24%
covers Draw + Nottingham Forest
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.87
William Hil
1.85
10Bet
1.85
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aston Villa over/under 0.5
Over
81.4%
@ 1.19+3.0%
Under
18.6%
@ 4.32-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.40
BetVictor
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Aston Villa over/under 1.5
Over
50.1%
@ 1.95+2.3%
Under
49.9%
@ 1.79-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.03
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
1.96
BetVictor
1.95
Betano
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Aston Villa over/under 2.5
Over
23.8%
@ 4.01+0.6%
Under
76.2%
@ 1.21-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.25
Marathonbet
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Under
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Aston Villa over/under 3.5
Over
9.1%
@ 9.27-1.0%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.04+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.90
Betfair
8.50
Betano
7.70
Under
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
Nottingham Forest over/under 0.5
Over
77.2%
@ 1.42+11.7%
Under
22.8%
@ 2.70-11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.79
BetVictor
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.69
Nottingham Forest over/under 1.5
Over
43.5%
@ 3.05+13.0%
Under
56.5%
@ 1.34-13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.18
Pinnacle
3.12
10Bet
3.00
Betano
3.00
Under
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Unibet
1.34
Nottingham Forest over/under 2.5
Over
18.6%
@ 8.14+7.1%
Under
81.4%
@ 1.06-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.80
1xBet
8.40
Betfair
7.50
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Nottingham Forest over/under 3.5
Over
6.3%
@ 19.00+1.2%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.01-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aston Villa, so a minus line means Aston Villa give that many goals of a start and Nottingham Forest receive them. At -1, Aston Villa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aston Villa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aston Villa)
Aston Villa -2
9.3%
@ 7.44-2.8%
Draw -2
12.8%
@ 5.47-3.7%
Nottingham Forest +2
77.9%
@ 1.26+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Draw
Marathonbet
5.90
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.20
Away
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Handicap -1 (Aston Villa)
Aston Villa -1
22.1%
@ 3.46-3.9%
Draw -1
19.5%
@ 3.60-5.5%
Nottingham Forest +1
58.4%
@ 1.83+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
3.56
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.45
10Bet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Away
Marathonbet
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Betfair
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Unibet
1.78
Handicap +1 (Aston Villa)
Aston Villa +1
67.1%
@ 1.26-4.9%
Draw +1
17.0%
@ 5.30-0.1%
Nottingham Forest -1
15.9%
@ 8.28+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.29
Unibet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.22
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
4.80
Away
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Handicap +2 (Aston Villa)
Aston Villa +2
84.1%
@ 1.06-2.9%
Draw +2
9.9%
@ 10.50+1.1%
Nottingham Forest -2
6.0%
@ 21.67+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
11.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
23.00
10Bet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aston Villa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.67
0.53
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.61
0.58
0.67
0.73
0.55
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.20
1.50
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nottingham Forest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.38
0.25
1.00
0.57
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.29
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.43
0.38
0.31
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.5%
@ 1.37+6.0%
Under 0.5
25.5%
@ 2.97-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
BetVictor
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.20
William Hil
3.10
Pinnacle
3.04
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.98
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.4%
@ 2.73+4.3%
Under 1.5
61.6%
@ 1.42-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.90
1xBet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.83
Betfair
2.75
Under
William Hil
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.6%
@ 7.02+1.2%
Under 2.5
85.4%
@ 1.08-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
1xBet
7.40
Marathonbet
7.40
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aston Villa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.3%
@ 1.81+1.1%
Under
47.7%
@ 1.90-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathonbet
1.83
Unibet
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Under
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathonbet
1.87
Unibet
1.87
Aston Villa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.4%
@ 5.31-0.1%
Under
82.6%
@ 1.12+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.65
1xBet
5.50
Betano
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Aston Villa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.3%
@ 11.00-5.2%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.02+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Nottingham Forest over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.2%
@ 2.39+4.5%
Under
56.8%
@ 1.51-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.48
Betano
2.47
Marathonbet
2.41
10Bet
2.40
1xBet
2.30
Under
Unibet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Nottingham Forest over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.0%
@ 9.03+0.7%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.04-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.90
1xBet
9.50
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
Nottingham Forest over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
@ 14.00-4.7%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aston Villa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
1.20
0.80
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.70
1.42
0.83
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nottingham Forest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.56
0.50
0.93
0.86
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.65
0.69
0.54
0.90
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.5%
@ 1.23+6.2%
Under 0.5
17.5%
@ 3.94-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.90
10Bet
3.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.8%
@ 2.07+4.6%
Under 1.5
50.2%
@ 1.71-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
William Hil
2.10
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.05
Under
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.8%
@ 4.46+2.8%
Under 2.5
76.2%
@ 1.19-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.70
1xBet
4.70
William Hil
4.60
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aston Villa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.1%
@ 1.57+1.8%
Under
38.9%
@ 2.29-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Under
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.28
Aston Villa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.1%
@ 3.73-2.7%
Under
77.9%
@ 1.23+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.92
1xBet
3.70
10Bet
3.70
Betano
3.60
Under
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Aston Villa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.6%
@ 8.88-4.8%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.03+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Nottingham Forest over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.3%
@ 2.01+7.0%
Under
46.7%
@ 1.73-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
Nottingham Forest over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.9%
@ 6.11+1.7%
Under
83.1%
@ 1.09-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.80
1xBet
6.30
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Nottingham Forest over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.7%
@ 11.75-4.3%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.7%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.3%
Under 6.5
95.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+0.1%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.4%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.8%
Away under 3.5 goals
93.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-1.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
90.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
+1.0%
Under 5.5
89.9%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-2.0%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.04
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
-0.7%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
-1.2%
Home +2 handicap
84.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
10Bet
1.05
-
-
-2.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.1%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
-
-1.7%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.6%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+0.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.5%
1.23
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+6.2%
Home over 0.5 goals
81.4%
1.19
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+3.0%
Away under 2.5 goals
81.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-7.1%
Under 5.5 cards
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.7%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.07
-6.3%
Over 1.5
78.0%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
+4.6%
Away +2 handicap
77.9%
1.26
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
+6.5%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.9%
1.23
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
-
+2.7%
Away over 0.5 goals
77.2%
1.42
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
+11.7%
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.2%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
-2.8%
Home under 2.5 goals
76.2%
1.21
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
-0.6%
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.5%
1.37
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
BetVictor
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
+6.0%
Home or Away
74.4%
1.27
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+0.5%
Over 2.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
70.5%
1.46
Unibet
1.46
-
-
-
-
+7.6%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aston Villa · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jamaldeen Jimoh33%
Ollie Watkins27%
Emiliano Buendía20%
Morgan Rogers20%
Tammy Abraham19%
John McGinn18%
Donyell Malen17%
Ross Barkley13%
Harvey Elliott11%
Evann Guessand10%
Matty Cash6%
Youri Tielemans6%
Leon Bailey5%
Amadou Onana5%
Douglas Luiz5%
Tyrone Mings5%
Ezri Konsa4%
Boubacar Kamara4%
Jadon Sancho3%
Ian Maatsen2%
Victor Lindelöf0%
Lucas Digne0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Marco Bizot0%
Pau Torres0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
George Hemmings0%
Andrés García0%
Alysson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matty Cash24%
Marco Bizot21%
Boubacar Kamara19%
John McGinn18%
Emiliano Buendía17%
Morgan Rogers16%
Lamare Bogarde16%
Douglas Luiz15%
Lucas Digne14%
Andrés García12%
Amadou Onana11%
Evann Guessand10%
Ollie Watkins7%
Victor Lindelöf7%
Emiliano Martínez7%
Ian Maatsen7%
Youri Tielemans6%
Leon Bailey5%
Tyrone Mings5%
Ross Barkley4%
Pau Torres3%
Ezri Konsa2%
Jadon Sancho0%
Donyell Malen0%
Harvey Elliott0%
Tammy Abraham0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh0%
George Hemmings0%
Alysson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Morgan Rogers20%
Youri Tielemans17%
Emiliano Buendía17%
Lucas Digne16%
John McGinn16%
Boubacar Kamara15%
Ollie Watkins9%
Matty Cash8%
Jadon Sancho8%
Donyell Malen7%
Tammy Abraham6%
Leon Bailey5%
Douglas Luiz5%
Evann Guessand5%
Ross Barkley4%
Victor Lindelöf4%
Emiliano Martínez2%
Ian Maatsen2%
Harvey Elliott0%
Tyrone Mings0%
Ezri Konsa0%
Marco Bizot0%
Pau Torres0%
Amadou Onana0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh0%
George Hemmings0%
Andrés García0%
Alysson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamaldeen Jimoh33%
Morgan Rogers24%
Ollie Watkins24%
Emiliano Buendía13%
Harvey Elliott11%
Donyell Malen10%
Evann Guessand10%
Youri Tielemans6%
Ross Barkley4%
Amadou Onana3%
Jadon Sancho3%
John McGinn2%
Ian Maatsen2%
Matty Cash2%
Victor Lindelöf0%
Leon Bailey0%
Boubacar Kamara0%
Lucas Digne0%
Tyrone Mings0%
Tammy Abraham0%
Ezri Konsa0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Marco Bizot0%
Pau Torres0%
Douglas Luiz0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
George Hemmings0%
Andrés García0%
Alysson0%
Nottingham Forest
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dan Ndoye33%
Xaver Schlager0%
Ola Aina0%
Nikola Milenković0%
Matz Sels0%
Igor Jesus0%
Neco Williams0%
Luca Netz0%
Jair0%
Murillo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ola Aina67%
Jair67%
Xaver Schlager33%
Igor Jesus33%
Murillo33%
Nikola Milenković0%
Matz Sels0%
Dan Ndoye0%
Neco Williams0%
Luca Netz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Xaver Schlager0%
Ola Aina0%
Nikola Milenković0%
Matz Sels0%
Igor Jesus0%
Dan Ndoye0%
Neco Williams0%
Luca Netz0%
Jair0%
Murillo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dan Ndoye33%
Xaver Schlager0%
Ola Aina0%
Nikola Milenković0%
Matz Sels0%
Igor Jesus0%
Neco Williams0%
Luca Netz0%
Jair0%
Murillo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Aston Villa's squad is €15m less valuable than Nottingham Forest's (€536m vs €551m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Aston Villa's attack is €44m less valuable than Nottingham Forest's (€220m vs €263m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Aston Villa's midfield is €108m more valuable than Nottingham Forest's (€160m vs €52m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Aston Villa's defence is €79m less valuable than Nottingham Forest's (€156m vs €236m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Tottenham