The encounter between Athletic Club and Atlético Madrid is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win at 40%. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate scoring game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.9% probability. Athletic’s home form shows they average one goal scored and two conceded against stronger opposition, while Atlético, playing away against weaker sides, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.88 conceded. The home win probability sits at 31%, a draw at 29%, and the away win at 40%. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5% with a 6% edge, Under 6.5 at 98.0% with a 2% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.3% with a 6% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.1% with a 5% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.0% with a 2% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 94.7% with a 5% edge, and Under 5.5 at 94.4% with a 2% edge. Both sides have recently won, giving the match an extra layer of intrigue.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Athletic Club win
32.3%
Avg Implied 30.9% · @ 3.06
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.21
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.16
Pinnacle
3.13
Unibet
3.10
Draw
28.6%
Avg Implied 28.1% · @ 3.37
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.56
Pinnacle
3.53
Marathonbet
3.50
Betfair
3.40
Unibet
3.40
Atletico Madrid win
39.1%
Avg Implied 41.1% · @ 2.31
Edge
-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.37
Dafabet
2.36
Marathonbet
2.33
Betano
2.32
Pinnacle
2.32
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Athletic Club
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.73
1.23
1.46
1.47
1.94
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
2.60
1.00
2.00
1.33
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.17
1.44
1.20
1.40
1.12
1.50
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
1.86
2.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.60
2.12
1.25
1.50
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
2.08
1.75
2.67
1.33
1.50
2.17
vs Weaker (18)
1.67
1.50
1.80
1.20
1.50
1.88
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.2%
@ 1.28+1.7%
Under 1.5
24.8%
@ 3.55-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.79
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.55
Unibet
3.55
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.1%
@ 1.91-1.0%
Under 2.5
50.9%
@ 1.91+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.97
Betano
1.93
SBO
1.93
Unibet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Under
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.95
SBO
1.93
Betano
1.93
10Bet
1.93
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.2%
@ 3.15-2.6%
Under 3.5
72.8%
@ 1.34+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.27
Betano
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Betfair
3.10
Under
Betfair
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Both teams to score
Yes
54.8%
@ 1.68-0.7%
No
45.2%
@ 2.09+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.70
Unibet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
No
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.15
William Hil
2.10
1xBet
2.07
Betano
2.07
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%@ 6.08+6.2%
0-1
8.7%@ 8.01+3.1%
1-2
8.6%@ 8.59+3.4%
0-0
8.4%@ 9.75+3.7%
2-1
7.7%@ 10.09+3.2%
1-0
7.7%@ 9.47+2.9%
0-2
6.9%@ 11.33+2.9%
2-0
5.5%@ 14.74+2.5%
Athletic Club goals ↓
Atletico Madrid goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
8.7%
6.9%
3.2%
1.1%
1
7.7%
14%
8.6%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.5%
7.7%
5.4%
2.5%
0.9%
3
2.3%
3.2%
2.2%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Athletic Club goals (down), columns = Atletico Madrid goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Athletic Club is 0.63 points worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Athletic Club is 0.50 goals worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Athletic Club is 0.37 goals worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.16).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Athletic Club is 4.7 percentage points worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of average possession (49% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Athletic Club
For 6.5 · Against 4.5 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 9.7 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atletico Madrid
For 6.0 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Athletic Club
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.9
9.6
4.3
4.8
4.0
25.1
24.3
25.7
vs Stronger (11)
8.9
9.3
8.4
3.5
4.5
2.2
23.6
24.7
22.4
vs Similar (27)
10.3
10.8
9.8
4.0
4.5
3.6
25.1
23.4
26.5
vs Weaker (12)
9.2
7.8
9.9
5.8
6.0
5.8
26.2
26.2
26.2
% over line
50%
50%
50%
60%
73%
50%
70%
64%
75%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
40%
27%
50%
30%
36%
25%
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.8
10.8
4.0
3.6
4.4
21.1
20.4
21.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
9.8
9.2
10.3
4.7
4.4
5.0
21.2
21.9
20.6
vs Weaker (33)
11.3
11.6
11.1
3.6
3.3
4.0
21.0
19.7
22.4
% over line
64%
60%
68%
56%
48%
64%
50%
44%
56%
% under line
36%
40%
32%
44%
52%
36%
50%
56%
44%
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Racing Santander
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.7
Alaves
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.3
Levante
10.1
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Osasuna
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Getafe
8.7
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.3
Getafe
5.6
Rayo Vallecano
5.6
Sevilla
5.2
Malaga
5.2
Real Sociedad
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Osasuna
5.0
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Alaves
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.7
Levante
4.7
Elche
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Athletic Club
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.4
Alaves
28.7
Elche
28.1
Sevilla
27.7
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
26.1
Rayo Vallecano
25.6
Athletic Club
25.1
Osasuna
25.0
Celta Vigo
24.9
Villarreal
24.8
Malaga
24.7
Levante
24.4
Valencia
24.3
Real Madrid
23.6
Deportivo La Coruna
23.4
Real Betis
23.3
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.7%
@ 1.77+2.2%
Under 9.5
45.3%
@ 1.96-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.83
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Unibet
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
1.99
10Bet
1.95
Unibet
1.94
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
70.8%
Under 3.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
68.8%
Under 21.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Athletic Club or Draw
60.3%
Avg Implied 59.1% · @ 1.59
Edge
+1.3%
32%
29%
39%
covers Athletic Club + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.65
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Athletic Club or Atletico Madrid
71.8%
Avg Implied 72.2% · @ 1.30
Edge
-0.4%
32%
29%
39%
covers Athletic Club + Atletico Madrid
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Draw or Atletico Madrid
67.8%
Avg Implied 68.7% · @ 1.37
Edge
-0.9%
32%
29%
39%
covers Draw + Atletico Madrid
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Athletic Club over/under 0.5
Over
71.8%
@ 1.33+1.7%
Under
28.2%
@ 3.12-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Unibet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.27
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.10
Betano
3.05
Athletic Club over/under 1.5
Over
36.1%
@ 2.64+0.6%
Under
63.9%
@ 1.45-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.74
1xBet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.70
Unibet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Under
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Athletic Club over/under 2.5
Over
13.5%
@ 6.46-0.9%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.09+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
1xBet
6.45
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Athletic Club over/under 3.5
Over
4.0%
@ 14.88-2.5%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.02+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5
Over
76.0%
@ 1.23+0.4%
Under
24.0%
@ 3.81-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Unibet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.03
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5
Over
41.8%
@ 2.16-1.5%
Under
58.2%
@ 1.65+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.26
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
Unibet
2.17
BetVictor
2.15
Under
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.65
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5
Over
17.4%
@ 4.76-2.2%
Under
82.6%
@ 1.16+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
1xBet
4.75
Unibet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Atletico Madrid over/under 3.5
Over
5.7%
@ 10.75-3.0%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.02+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
10.50
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Unibet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Athletic Club, so a minus line means Athletic Club give that many goals of a start and Atletico Madrid receive them. At -1, Athletic Club must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Athletic Club win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Athletic Club)
Athletic Club -2
4.9%
@ 15.75-0.9%
Draw -2
9.5%
@ 8.88-0.8%
Atletico Madrid +2
85.6%
@ 1.08+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
18.00
Bet365
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Unibet
13.00
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.50
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
7.50
Away
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Handicap -1 (Athletic Club)
Athletic Club -1
14.4%
@ 6.36+0.3%
Draw -1
17.8%
@ 4.57-1.9%
Atletico Madrid +1
67.8%
@ 1.36+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.05
10Bet
6.00
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Away
Marathonbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Betfair
1.30
Handicap +1 (Athletic Club)
Athletic Club +1
60.3%
@ 1.61+4.6%
Draw +1
20.2%
@ 3.82-3.2%
Atletico Madrid -1
19.4%
@ 4.31-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.65
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Unibet
1.60
Betfair
1.57
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.82
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.75
Away
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.15
Handicap +2 (Athletic Club)
Athletic Club +2
80.6%
@ 1.17+3.8%
Draw +2
12.1%
@ 6.45-1.9%
Atletico Madrid -2
7.3%
@ 9.76-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
6.10
Away
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
9.50
10Bet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.30
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Athletic Club
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.62
0.54
0.65
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.50
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.61
0.60
0.60
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
1.29
0.00
0.00
0.83
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.87
1.00
0.75
0.86
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.25
0.83
1.83
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
0.72
0.89
0.50
0.60
1.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.1%
@ 1.38+2.1%
Under 0.5
29.9%
@ 2.93-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
BetVictor
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
3.12
William Hil
3.10
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.89
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.2%
@ 2.75+0.2%
Under 1.5
65.8%
@ 1.42-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.87
Pinnacle
2.83
Marathonbet
2.81
1xBet
2.81
Unibet
2.75
Under
William Hil
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
1xBet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.7%
@ 6.85-2.0%
Under 2.5
88.3%
@ 1.08+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.00
William Hil
7.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.70
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Athletic Club over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.1%
@ 2.20-0.3%
Under
57.9%
@ 1.62+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.23
1xBet
2.19
Marathonbet
2.19
Unibet
2.17
Under
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Athletic Club over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.0%
@ 7.16-2.9%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.06+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.50
1xBet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Athletic Club over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
@ 12.50-5.9%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.3%
@ 1.97-0.1%
Under
52.7%
@ 1.77+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.00
Betano
2.00
Unibet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Unibet
1.75
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.5%
@ 5.80-2.4%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.10+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.95
1xBet
5.95
Unibet
5.75
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.1%
@ 11.50-5.1%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Athletic Club
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.93
0.62
0.92
0.82
0.94
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.80
0.00
1.50
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.83
0.60
0.80
0.62
0.88
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.57
2.00
1.00
1.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
1.12
0.50
0.64
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.92
0.83
0.33
0.83
1.50
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.61
1.30
0.60
0.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Athletic Club) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.8%
@ 1.22+1.7%
Under 0.5
22.2%
@ 3.91-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.95
10Bet
3.95
1xBet
3.94
Marathonbet
3.94
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.8%
@ 2.07+0.5%
Under 1.5
54.2%
@ 1.71-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.13
Marathonbet
2.13
Unibet
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Betano
2.05
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.1%
@ 4.37-3.3%
Under 2.5
81.9%
@ 1.19+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.60
Unibet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Bet365
4.33
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Athletic Club over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.2%
@ 1.84-3.2%
Under
52.8%
@ 1.87+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.82
Under
Betano
1.91
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Athletic Club over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.2%
@ 5.14-3.8%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.13+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.35
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Athletic Club over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.8%
@ 10.75-6.0%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.03+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.3%
@ 1.67+1.4%
Under
42.7%
@ 2.10-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Under
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.09
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.0%
@ 4.17-1.2%
Under
79.0%
@ 1.19+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Betano
4.00
Under
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.9%
@ 9.25-4.2%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.04+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.9%
Under 6.5
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.3%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.0%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
96.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+2.5%
Under 5.5
94.4%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.02
Unibet
1.01
+2.1%
Away under 3.5 goals
94.3%
1.02
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Unibet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+3.0%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
+2.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
+2.0%
Home under 2.5 goals
86.5%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
+0.9%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.5%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
+2.4%
Under 4.5
86.4%
1.10
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.09
+1.5%
Over 2.5 cards
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.8%
1.13
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-
+3.8%
Away +2 handicap
85.6%
1.08
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
-
+1.7%
Away under 2.5 goals
82.6%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
+2.2%
Over 19.5 fouls
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.9%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
+3.3%
Home +2 handicap
80.6%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
+3.8%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
79.0%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
-
+1.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.8%
1.22
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
+1.7%
Away over 0.5 goals
76.0%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Unibet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
+0.4%
Over 1.5
75.2%
1.28
Betano
1.31
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.28
+1.7%
Under 3.5
72.8%
1.34
Betfair
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
+2.6%
Home or Away
71.8%
1.30
1xBet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
-0.4%
Home over 0.5 goals
71.8%
1.33
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Unibet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+1.7%
Over 3.5 cards
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.1%
1.38
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
BetVictor
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
+2.1%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Athletic Club
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Berenguer33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gorka Guruzeta67%
Beñat Gerenabarrena33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Peio Canales0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Iñaki Williams33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Oihan Sancet0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Oihan Sancet33%
Aymeric Laporte0%
Álex Berenguer0%
Unai Simón0%
Gorka Guruzeta0%
Iñaki Williams0%
Nico Williams0%
Beñat Gerenabarrena0%
Peio Canales0%
Atletico Madrid
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alex Baena67%
Kang-in Lee33%
Ademola Lookman33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcos Llorente33%
Morten Hjulmand33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Kang-in Lee0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marcos Llorente33%
Kang-in Lee33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Pablo Barrios33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kang-in Lee33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Athletic Club's squad is €412m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€241m vs €653m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Athletic Club's attack is €184m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€106m vs €290m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Athletic Club's midfield is €98m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€57m vs €155m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Athletic Club's defence is €131m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€77m vs €208m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Malaga