PythiaFootballBETA
This match between Athletic Club and Celta Vigo promises to be a closely contested affair. Celta Vigo's recent form has been impressive, coming off a win against Sevilla, while Athletic Club is still reeling from a defeat to Real Madrid. The model predicts a home win, but the probabilities for all three outcomes are remarkably close, with Athletic Club winning at 37%, Celta Vigo winning at 33%, and the draw at 31%.
The expected total number of goals is 2.4, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, which has a probability of 14.4%. Athletic Club has a strong home record, scoring an average of 1.43 goals and conceding 1.29 per match against similar opponents. Celta Vigo, however, has struggled to score away from home, averaging 1.11 goals per match against similar opponents, while conceding 1.33.
The model's selection is the Under 3.5, which has a probability of 78.7%. The suggested picks include the Under 3.5, the Home win, and the Draw, with the Home win having a probability of 37%, the Draw 31%, and the Away win 33%.
The draw between Athletic Club and Celta Vigo was a major upset, as it snapped the home side's three-match winning streak. The final score was 1-1, with neither team able to break through for a winner. This result was a surprise, given that Athletic Club were the pre-match favourites, with a 37% chance of winning according to the model. Unfortunately for the model, its call was incorrect, as Celta Vigo's 33% chance of winning proved to be the more accurate prediction. The model's selection, a home win, MISSED, while the suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals HIT, with an 78.7% probability.
Athletic Club| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.57 | 1.14 | 1.21 | 1.12 | 1.88 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.89 | 1.78 | 0.60 | 1.40 | 1.25 | 2.25 |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.43 | 1.29 | 0.57 | 1.71 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.71 | 1.43 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
Celta Vigo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.33 | 1.80 | 1.53 | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 1.20 | 0.90 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.60 | 1.55 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 1.11 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Celta Vigo goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 10% | 14% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.0% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Athletic ClubCelta VigoAthletic Club| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.3 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 25.2 | 24.8 | 25.6 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 7.9 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 26.2 | 25.6 | 26.8 |
| vs Similar (23) | 10.6 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 24.2 | 21.9 | 25.9 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 8.6 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 26.1 | 28.3 | 23.9 |
| % over line | 48% | 54% | 42% | 58% | 62% | 54% | 70% | 62% | 77% |
| % under line | 52% | 46% | 58% | 42% | 38% | 46% | 30% | 38% | 23% |
Celta Vigo| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.2 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 24.0 | 23.2 | 24.8 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 7.9 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 22.3 | 20.0 | 24.2 |
| vs Similar (32) | 8.3 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 25.0 | 24.8 | 25.2 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 28% | 32% | 24% | 60% | 64% | 56% | 62% | 60% | 64% |
| % under line | 72% | 68% | 76% | 40% | 36% | 44% | 38% | 40% | 36% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 78.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 71.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 70.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 19/01/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 22/09/24 | H | 3-1 | |
| 15/05/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 10/11/23 | H | 4-3 | |
| 20/05/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 29/01/23 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/04/22 | H | 0-2 |
Athletic Club| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 0-1 |
Celta Vigo| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 16/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 09/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 3-4 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Barcelona | 38 | 94 | 82% | 2.5 | 95 | 36 | +59 | 3.4 | 89% | 74% | 42% | 11.3 | 68% | 4.5 | 51% | 21.4 | 50% | 1301 | 589 | 298 | 413 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 69% |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 38 | 86 | 71% | 2.3 | 77 | 35 | +42 | 2.9 | 87% | 55% | 26% | 9.9 | 55% | 4.8 | 54% | 24.4 | 68% | 1256 | 712 | 250 | 294 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 59% |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 38 | 72 | 58% | 1.9 | 72 | 46 | +26 | 3.1 | 92% | 58% | 37% | 9.1 | 45% | 4.3 | 58% | 24.1 | 61% | 360 | 168 | 55 | 137 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 45% |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 38 | 69 | 55% | 1.8 | 62 | 44 | +18 | 2.8 | 74% | 50% | 26% | 10.8 | 61% | 4.4 | 59% | 20.9 | 39% | 540 | 226 | 123 | 190 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 38 | 60 | 39% | 1.6 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 2.8 | 89% | 53% | 26% | 9.6 | 50% | 4.6 | 65% | 23.7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 6 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 54 | 37% | 1.4 | 53 | 48 | +5 | 2.7 | 79% | 45% | 24% | 8.4 | 29% | 4.4 | 58% | 24.1 | 63% | 200 | 81 | 39 | 80 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 7 |  Getafe | 38 | 51 | 39% | 1.3 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 1.8 | 58% | 26% | 5% | 8.9 | 37% | 5.6 | 79% | 29.8 | 100% | 94 | 46 | 25 | 23 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 40% |
| 8 |  Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 50 | 32% | 1.3 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 2.2 | 71% | 37% | 16% | 10.9 | 66% | 5.3 | 74% | 24.5 | 76% | 94 | 29 | 11 | 54 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 9 |  Valencia | 38 | 49 | 34% | 1.3 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 2.7 | 79% | 42% | 24% | 9.9 | 45% | 4.6 | 68% | 24.2 | 66% | 147 | 54 | 46 | 47 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 10 |  Real Sociedad | 38 | 46 | 29% | 1.2 | 59 | 61 | -2 | 3.2 | 82% | 58% | 42% | 10.1 | 53% | 5.0 | 63% | 26.6 | 76% | 270 | 132 | 54 | 83 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 11 |  Espanyol | 38 | 46 | 32% | 1.2 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 2.6 | 76% | 50% | 24% | 9.5 | 45% | 5.2 | 70% | 26.5 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 42% |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 38 | 45 | 34% | 1.2 | 43 | 58 | -15 | 2.7 | 74% | 47% | 21% | 9.6 | 50% | 4.6 | 67% | 24.3 | 66% | 236 | 103 | 57 | 76 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 13 |  Elche | 38 | 43 | 26% | 1.1 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 2.8 | 79% | 58% | 39% | 8.3 | 34% | 4.6 | 71% | 28.3 | 92% | 127 | 34 | 37 | 56 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 58% |
| 14 |  Alaves | 38 | 43 | 29% | 1.1 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 2.6 | 71% | 50% | 24% | 10.1 | 53% | 4.9 | 74% | 28.4 | 95% | 78 | 26 | 22 | 29 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 15 |  Sevilla | 38 | 43 | 32% | 1.1 | 46 | 60 | -14 | 2.8 | 79% | 55% | 26% | 9.3 | 50% | 5.2 | 68% | 27.6 | 82% | 163 | 65 | 28 | 70 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 2.5 | 68% | 50% | 26% | 8.6 | 32% | 5.1 | 79% | 25.1 | 82% | 99 | 51 | 13 | 35 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 17 |  Mallorca | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 47 | 57 | -10 | 2.7 | 84% | 63% | 21% | 10.0 | 58% | 4.7 | 62% | 24.6 | 74% | 77 | 31 | 23 | 23 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 18 |  Levante | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 2.8 | 87% | 45% | 29% | 10.2 | 47% | 4.9 | 71% | 25.3 | 76% | 111 | 68 | 15 | 27 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 43% |
| 19 |  Girona | 38 | 41 | 24% | 1.1 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 2.5 | 79% | 45% | 16% | 9.4 | 39% | 4.4 | 50% | 25.0 | 71% | 199 | 83 | 33 | 84 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 20 |  Oviedo | 38 | 29 | 16% | 0.8 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 2.3 | 66% | 39% | 16% | 9.5 | 47% | 4.2 | 58% | 24.1 | 63% | 61 | 26 | 11 | 23 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 46% |