Athlone Town and Kerry face a finely balanced clash, with the model favouring a home win. The odds sit at 37 % for Athlone, 27 % for a draw and 36 % for Kerry, so the match is a tight contest. The average number of goals expected is 2.8, with the most likely total being two goals at 25 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.9 % chance. Athlone, playing at home against a similarly-sized opponent, averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Kerry, on the road, averages 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1 %), Under 6.5 (97.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.3 %), Under 5.5 (93.0 %), Under 4.5 (84.0 %), Away under 2.5 goals (82.9 %) and Home +2 handicap (82.7 %). Each pick is listed with its exact probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Athlone Town win
38.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kerry win
34.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Athlone Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.93
1.07
1.53
1.20
2.33
vs Stronger (17)
1.18
1.88
1.11
1.56
1.25
2.25
vs Similar (13)
1.08
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.14
2.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kerry
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.53
1.38
1.06
1.43
2.07
vs Stronger (24)
1.38
1.71
1.23
1.15
1.55
2.36
vs Similar (6)
1.50
0.83
2.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Athlone Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.5%
Under 1.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.2%
Under 2.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.8%
Under 3.5
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.5%
No
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.1%
1-0
7.2%
0-0
6.7%
0-1
6.6%
2-0
6.2%
2-2
6.0%
Athlone Town goals ↓
Kerry goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
6.6%
5.4%
2.5%
0.9%
1
7.2%
13%
8.1%
3.7%
1.3%
2
6.2%
8.7%
6.0%
2.8%
1.0%
3
3.1%
4.3%
3.0%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.2%
1.6%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Athlone Town goals (down), columns = Kerry goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Athlone Town is 0.14 points worse than Kerry in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Athlone Town is 0.71 goals worse than Kerry in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 2.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Athlone Town is 0.14 goals better than Kerry in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Athlone Town or Draw
65.9%
Avg Implied -
39%
27%
34%
covers Athlone Town + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town or Kerry
72.9%
Avg Implied -
39%
27%
34%
covers Athlone Town + Kerry
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kerry
61.2%
Avg Implied -
39%
27%
34%
covers Draw + Kerry
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Athlone Town over/under 0.5
Over
77.6%
Under
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 1.5
Over
44.1%
Under
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 2.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 3.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 0.5
Over
75.2%
Under
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5
Over
40.6%
Under
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Athlone Town, so a minus line means Athlone Town give that many goals of a start and Kerry receive them. At -1, Athlone Town must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Athlone Town win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Athlone Town)
Athlone Town -2
7.5%
Draw -2
11.9%
Kerry +2
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Athlone Town)
Athlone Town -1
19.3%
Draw -1
19.4%
Kerry +1
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Athlone Town)
Athlone Town +1
65.9%
Draw +1
18.0%
Kerry -1
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Athlone Town)
Athlone Town +2
83.9%
Draw +2
10.3%
Kerry -2
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Athlone Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.60
0.73
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (17)
0.76
0.94
0.67
0.89
0.88
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.92
0.50
0.50
0.29
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kerry
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.81
0.31
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (24)
0.67
0.54
0.62
0.31
0.73
0.82
vs Similar (6)
1.00
0.17
1.67
0.33
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Athlone Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Athlone Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Athlone Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.47
0.80
0.60
1.20
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
0.94
0.44
0.67
0.38
1.25
vs Similar (13)
0.69
1.08
0.50
1.00
0.86
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kerry
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.07
0.56
0.75
0.79
1.43
vs Stronger (24)
0.71
1.17
0.62
0.85
0.82
1.55
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Athlone Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Athlone Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Athlone Town and Kerry have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Athlone Town and Kerry have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
Athlone Town and Kerry have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Longford Town
Cork City
UCD
Cobh Ramblers
Treaty United
Bray Wanderers
Wexford
Finn Harps