PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Athlone Town vs Longford Town Result & Analysis

Date: 07/08/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 2-1
Athlone Town
Athlone Town
Vs
37%
29%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Longford Town
Longford Town
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

This match between Athlone Town and Longford Town is finely balanced, with Athlone Town coming off a win against Longford Town in their last outing, while Longford Town are seeking to bounce back from a defeat against Athlone Town. The model predicts a home win, with a 37% chance of Athlone Town taking all three points, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 34% chance of Longford Town emerging victorious. The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with the most likely total number of goals being 2.

The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.8% probability. Athlone Town have scored an average of 0.83 goals at home against similar opponents, while conceding 1.5 goals. Longford Town have scored an average of 1.38 goals away against similar opponents, while conceding 1.62 goals.

The model's selection is the Home win, with a 37% chance. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals with a 74.7% chance and Under 3.5 goals with a 73.4% chance.

Results analysis

The win extends Athlone Town's run, their home form note now reading 'coming off a win'. With a final score of 2-1, the actual result was a home win, aligning with the model's call of Athlone Town as the favourite, which carried a 37% pre-match probability. The model's selection was correct. The model's selection of Athlone Town to win came in, as did the selection of Over 1.5 goals, which had a 74.7% probability of occurring and hit, while Under 3.5 goals, with a 73.4% probability, also hit.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Athlone Town win✓ Hit
37.0%
Avg Implied 39.6% · @ 2.28
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.39
Dafabet
2.34
Betano
2.32
Betfair
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Draw✗ Miss
28.8%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.21
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.46
10Bet
3.40
Dafabet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Longford Town win✗ Miss
34.2%
Avg Implied 32.2% · @ 2.80
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.92
10Bet
2.90
Dafabet
2.90
Unibet
2.88
Superbet
2.87

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Athlone TownAthlone Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L00D12L11D22D12L20W12L00D23LA·TRE19/09H·KER22/09H·WEX26/09H·DUN03/10A·UCD10/10H·LON17/10H·COB10/07A·TRE24/07H·UCD31/07A·COR03/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.930.871.471.072.40
vs Stronger (17)1.001.880.901.401.142.57
vs Similar (13)0.922.000.801.601.002.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Longford TownLongford Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L32W20W21W31W21W43W12L10W50WA·UCD12/09H·DUN20/09A·BRA26/09A·TRE05/10H·COB10/10A·ATH17/10A·COR10/07H·WEX25/07A·TRE31/07H·FIN03/08
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.471.801.331.201.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.452.001.332.001.602.00
vs Weaker (19)1.531.162.110.891.001.40
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Athlone Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.7%
@ 1.26+2.2%
Under 1.5
25.3%
@ 3.32-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.69
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
888Sport
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.3%
@ 1.87-1.1%
Under 2.5
51.7%
@ 1.83+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Unibet
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.6%
@ 3.12-2.7%
Under 3.5
73.4%
@ 1.29+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Unibet
3.30
Bet365
3.25
888Sport
3.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
888Sport
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.3%
@ 1.67-0.2%
No
45.7%
@ 2.01+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Superbet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
888Sport
1.70
No
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.07
888Sport
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%@ 5.75+6.3%
0-0
8.6%@ 9.22+4.0%
1-0
8.6%@ 7.45+2.8%
2-1 ✓
8.4%@ 8.27+3.2%
0-1
8.1%@ 8.39+3.0%
1-2
8.0%@ 9.36+3.4%
2-0
6.6%@ 10.65+2.5%
0-2
6.0%@ 13.21+2.7%
Athlone Town goals ↓
Longford Town goals →
01234
08.6%8.1%6.0%2.5%0.8%
18.6%14%8.0%3.4%1.1%
26.6%8.4%5.3%2.3%0.7%
32.9%3.7%2.4%1.0%0.3%
41.0%1.2%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Athlone Town goals (down), columns = Longford Town goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Athlone Town and Longford Town are level in average points per game (both 1.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Athlone Town is 1.00 goals worse than Longford Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 2.57).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Athlone Town is 0.57 goals better than Longford Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.57).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Athlone TownAthlone Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D11D01L20W10W10W01L00D13LA·TRE19/09H·KER22/09H·WEX26/09H·DUN03/10A·UCD10/10H·LON17/10H·COB10/07A·TRE24/07H·UCD31/07A·COR03/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.900.400.670.531.13
vs Stronger (17)0.590.940.400.800.861.14
vs Similar (13)0.310.850.400.400.251.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Longford TownLongford Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D10W10W11D01L21W01L10W10WA·UCD12/09H·DUN20/09A·BRA26/09A·TRE05/10H·COB10/10A·ATH17/10A·COR10/07H·WEX25/07A·TRE31/07H·FIN03/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.500.670.400.530.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.640.640.500.330.801.00
vs Weaker (19)0.580.420.780.440.400.40
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Athlone Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Athlone Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Athlone TownAthlone Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D01L10W02L02L10W11D00D10WA·TRE19/09H·KER22/09H·WEX26/09H·DUN03/10A·UCD10/10H·LON17/10H·COB10/07A·TRE24/07H·UCD31/07A·COR03/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.030.470.800.531.27
vs Stronger (17)0.410.940.500.600.291.43
vs Similar (13)0.621.150.401.200.751.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Longford TownLongford Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D21W10W11D20W20W22D11D00D40WA·UCD12/09H·DUN20/09A·BRA26/09A·TRE05/10H·COB10/10A·ATH17/10A·COR10/07H·WEX25/07A·TRE31/07H·FIN03/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.971.130.930.671.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.821.360.831.670.801.00
vs Weaker (19)0.950.741.330.440.601.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Athlone Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Athlone Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.7%1.26
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
+2.2%✓ Hit
Under 3.573.4%1.29
Pinnacle
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
888Sport
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+2.7%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CR (2)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
AT wins
5
Draws
2
LT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Athlone Town vs Longford Town · H/A from AT
DateH/AGameScore
17/10/25HAT Vs Longford Town1-2
23/06/25ALongford Town Vs AT3-2
21/04/25HAT Vs Longford Town1-1
01/03/25ALongford Town Vs AT1-1
05/10/24ALongford Town Vs AT1-1
12/07/24HAT Vs Longford Town4-1
18/05/24ALongford Town Vs AT1-1
22/03/24HAT Vs Longford Town3-3

Athlone TownAthlone Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/08/26ACork City Vs AT3-2
31/07/26HAT Vs UCD0-0
24/07/26ATreaty United Vs AT2-1
10/07/26HAT Vs Cobh Ramblers2-0
17/10/25HAT Vs Longford Town1-2
10/10/25AUCD Vs AT2-2
03/10/25HAT Vs Dundalk1-1
26/09/25HAT Vs Wexford1-2
22/09/25HAT Vs Kerry0-0
19/09/25ATreaty United Vs AT3-2

Longford TownLongford Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/08/26HLT Vs Finn Harps5-0
31/07/26ATreaty United Vs LT0-1
25/07/26HLT Vs Wexford1-2
10/07/26ACork City Vs LT3-4
17/10/25AAthlone Town Vs LT1-2
10/10/25HLT Vs Cobh Ramblers3-1
05/10/25ATreaty United Vs LT1-2
26/09/25ABray Wanderers Vs LT0-2
20/09/25HLT Vs Dundalk3-2
12/09/25AUCD Vs LT2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Athlone Town
Athlone Town
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDL0.78
HomeLDLWD0.96
AwayLLDLL0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %16%20%12%
AVG goals2.682.482.88
Over 1.5 %74%68%80%
Over 2.5 %54%52%56%
Over 3.5 %32%28%36%
Scored0.940.960.92
Conceded1.741.521.96
BTTS54%52%56%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Longford Town
Longford Town
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 8 Wins / 0 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW1.32
HomeDWWLW1.65
AwayWWWWW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%46%25%
AVG goals2.982.883.08
Over 1.5 %82%85%79%
Over 2.5 %56%54%58%
Over 3.5 %38%35%42%
Scored1.381.651.08
Conceded1.601.232.00
BTTS60%58%62%
Clean Sheet22%27%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KerryKerry714
57%
2.0
168+8
3.4
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.1
-
2Longford TownLongford Town713
57%
1.9
1811+7
4.1
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.6
-
3Cork CityCork City713
57%
1.9
1814+4
4.6
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.62.0
-
4Athlone TownAthlone Town713
57%
1.9
117+4
2.6
86%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
5UCDUCD711
43%
1.6
1616+0
4.6
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.32.3
-
6Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers710
43%
1.4
910-1
2.7
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
7Treaty UnitedTreaty United710
43%
1.4
810-2
2.6
71%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
8Bray WanderersBray Wanderers79
43%
1.3
1713+4
4.3
100%
100%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.9
-
9WexfordWexford77
29%
1.0
713-6
2.9
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.9
-
10Finn HarpsFinn Harps70
0%
0.0
624-18
4.3
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.4
-
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

← all matches