Athlone Town and Treaty United face a finely balanced encounter, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 36% for an Athlone victory, 31% for a draw and 33% for a Treaty win, making the home side the slight favourite. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 14.5% chance. Athlone, playing at home against a similarly-sized opponent, averages one goal scored and 1.5 conceded, while Treaty, on the road, averages 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.0%), Under 5.5 (96.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.5%), Under 4.5 (90.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.0%) and Home under 2.5 goals (87.7%). Athlone’s recent three-game winning streak and a 2-1 win over Bray Wanderers contrast with Treaty’s recent defeat, adding to the intrigue.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Athlone Town win
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Treaty United win
33.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Athlone Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.93
1.07
1.53
1.20
2.33
vs Stronger (17)
1.18
1.88
1.11
1.56
1.25
2.25
vs Similar (13)
1.08
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.14
2.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Treaty United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.47
1.21
1.43
0.88
1.50
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.55
0.67
2.00
1.20
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.38
1.71
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Athlone Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.5%
Under 1.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.9%
Under 2.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.3%
Under 3.5
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.2%
No
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
10.8%
1-0
10.1%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
6.2%
Athlone Town goals ↓
Treaty United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.5%
6.2%
2.4%
0.7%
1
10%
14%
7.5%
2.9%
0.8%
2
6.9%
7.9%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.8%
3.2%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Athlone Town goals (down), columns = Treaty United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Treaty United
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Athlone Town is 0.43 points better than Treaty United in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
Kerry
2.29
UCD
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Athlone Town is 0.43 goals better than Treaty United in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Treaty United
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Wexford
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Athlone Town is 0.43 goals better than Treaty United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Athlone Town or Draw
66.8%
Avg Implied -
36%
31%
33%
covers Athlone Town + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town or Treaty United
69.4%
Avg Implied -
36%
31%
33%
covers Athlone Town + Treaty United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Treaty United
63.8%
Avg Implied -
36%
31%
33%
covers Draw + Treaty United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Athlone Town over/under 0.5
Over
70.2%
Under
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 1.5
Over
34.1%
Under
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 2.5
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 0.5
Over
68.3%
Under
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5
Over
31.9%
Under
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Athlone Town, so a minus line means Athlone Town give that many goals of a start and Treaty United receive them. At -1, Athlone Town must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Athlone Town win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Athlone Town)
Athlone Town -2
5.3%
Draw -2
10.7%
Treaty United +2
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Athlone Town)
Athlone Town -1
16.1%
Draw -1
20.1%
Treaty United +1
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Athlone Town)
Athlone Town +1
66.8%
Draw +1
19.1%
Treaty United -1
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Athlone Town)
Athlone Town +2
85.8%
Draw +2
9.7%
Treaty United -2
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Athlone Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.60
0.73
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (17)
0.76
0.94
0.67
0.89
0.88
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.92
0.50
0.50
0.29
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Treaty United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.50
0.29
0.50
0.12
0.50
vs Stronger (11)
0.09
0.64
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.20
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.44
0.43
0.14
0.22
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Athlone Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Athlone Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Athlone Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.47
0.80
0.60
1.20
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
0.94
0.44
0.67
0.38
1.25
vs Similar (13)
0.69
1.08
0.50
1.00
0.86
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Treaty United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
0.93
0.93
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.91
0.50
1.00
1.20
0.80
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.94
1.29
0.86
0.44
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Athlone Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Athlone Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Athlone Town and Treaty United have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Athlone Town and Treaty United have a similar attack value (both €0m).
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kerry
Longford Town
Cork City
UCD
Cobh Ramblers
Bray Wanderers
Wexford
Finn Harps